IdaGriz01
Well-known member
With so many teams still playing FBS money games, it’s a bit chancy to guess what the pollsters may do after the results this week. Have to figure what the losses to FBS opponents (five of them) mean in terms of the actual strength of a team. But we’ll give it a whirl, just for fun.
Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 North Dakota State (2-1) [1]
#2 South Dakota State (2-1) [2]
#3 Montana (3-0) [3]
#4 Incarnate Word (3-0) [6]
#5 Sacramento State (2-0) [8]
#6 Delaware (3-0) [9]
#7 Missouri State (2-1) [5]
#8 Chattanooga (3-0) [10]
#9 Montana State (2-1) [4]
#10 Jackson State (3-0) [11]
#11 Villanova (2-1) [7]
#12 Weber State (3-0) [12]
#13 Holy Cross (3-0) [13]
#14 Eastern Washington (1-1) [14]
#15 William & Mary (3-0) [15]
#16 E. Kentucky (2-1) [19]
#17 Mercer (2-1) [20]
#18 Stephen F. Austin (1-2) [21]
#19 UT Martin (1-2) [16]
#20 Rhode Island (2-1) [17]
#21 North Dakota (2-1) [22]
#22 Southern Illinois (1-2)4 NR
#23 Kennesaw State (0-2) [23]
#24 Samford (2-1) a [24]
#25 East Tennessee State (1-2) [18]
NR New Hampshire (2-1) [25]
As noted on another thread, I think most pollsters will actually see the NDSU “loss” as a plus. A couple key plays go the other way, and the Bison might have won. It’s possible they might lose a few first place votes, but I rather doubt it.
Could the Griz move into #2? Not out of the question. Both UM and SDSU put about the same hurt on crappy opponents … on the road. It might become a question of which was crappier. Butler’s two wins were at home against NAIA opponents. Indiana State’s one loss going into the game was to Purdue. Advantage: Montana. In general, the pollsters have not been that smart, so my guess is that they will not move the Griz up … but I could be wrong.
With three top-ten teams losing to FBS opponents, it becomes a total crap shoot as to how much (if any) they might move down. I think they will be easier on Missouri State, since the Bears kept it close and actually led for quite a long time. In fact, it would not surprise me if they don’t drop at all, or only a spot. Montana State and Villanova both got pounded by their FBS opponents. Neither of the FBS teams could be considered powerhouses, so I’m guessing the losers could drop a fair amount.
The lose by UT-Martin to Boise State was another tough one. The Broncos don’t seem to be a real power this year. They didn’t pull away until the 4th quarter. Thus, I don’t think the pollsters will punish UT-Martin a lot.
I might have been too kind to Rhode Island. Yes, they lost to #9 Delaware, but they were at home and still got creamed by three touchdowns. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop a few more spots.
I expect the pollsters to drop East Tennessee State a lot after their loss to an unranked team. I have them barely hanging on, but they could drop further. If they do, I’d guess that Richmond might make it into the top-25.
Dropping New Hampshire out of the top-25 was an easy call after they got thumped by an unranked team. With that spot opening up, I decided the pollsters would reward Southern Illinois for their upset at Northwestern. (They might have done that anyway.)
FWIW: I debated with myself about bumping Kennesaw State (idle) to make room for Richmond or perhaps SE Louisiana. Their (0-2) record sticks out like a sore thumb.
Poll Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 North Dakota State (2-1) [1]
#2 South Dakota State (2-1) [2]
#3 Montana (3-0) [3]
#4 Incarnate Word (3-0) [6]
#5 Sacramento State (2-0) [8]
#6 Delaware (3-0) [9]
#7 Missouri State (2-1) [5]
#8 Chattanooga (3-0) [10]
#9 Montana State (2-1) [4]
#10 Jackson State (3-0) [11]
#11 Villanova (2-1) [7]
#12 Weber State (3-0) [12]
#13 Holy Cross (3-0) [13]
#14 Eastern Washington (1-1) [14]
#15 William & Mary (3-0) [15]
#16 E. Kentucky (2-1) [19]
#17 Mercer (2-1) [20]
#18 Stephen F. Austin (1-2) [21]
#19 UT Martin (1-2) [16]
#20 Rhode Island (2-1) [17]
#21 North Dakota (2-1) [22]
#22 Southern Illinois (1-2)4 NR
#23 Kennesaw State (0-2) [23]
#24 Samford (2-1) a [24]
#25 East Tennessee State (1-2) [18]
NR New Hampshire (2-1) [25]
As noted on another thread, I think most pollsters will actually see the NDSU “loss” as a plus. A couple key plays go the other way, and the Bison might have won. It’s possible they might lose a few first place votes, but I rather doubt it.
Could the Griz move into #2? Not out of the question. Both UM and SDSU put about the same hurt on crappy opponents … on the road. It might become a question of which was crappier. Butler’s two wins were at home against NAIA opponents. Indiana State’s one loss going into the game was to Purdue. Advantage: Montana. In general, the pollsters have not been that smart, so my guess is that they will not move the Griz up … but I could be wrong.
With three top-ten teams losing to FBS opponents, it becomes a total crap shoot as to how much (if any) they might move down. I think they will be easier on Missouri State, since the Bears kept it close and actually led for quite a long time. In fact, it would not surprise me if they don’t drop at all, or only a spot. Montana State and Villanova both got pounded by their FBS opponents. Neither of the FBS teams could be considered powerhouses, so I’m guessing the losers could drop a fair amount.
The lose by UT-Martin to Boise State was another tough one. The Broncos don’t seem to be a real power this year. They didn’t pull away until the 4th quarter. Thus, I don’t think the pollsters will punish UT-Martin a lot.
I might have been too kind to Rhode Island. Yes, they lost to #9 Delaware, but they were at home and still got creamed by three touchdowns. Wouldn’t be surprised to see them drop a few more spots.
I expect the pollsters to drop East Tennessee State a lot after their loss to an unranked team. I have them barely hanging on, but they could drop further. If they do, I’d guess that Richmond might make it into the top-25.
Dropping New Hampshire out of the top-25 was an easy call after they got thumped by an unranked team. With that spot opening up, I decided the pollsters would reward Southern Illinois for their upset at Northwestern. (They might have done that anyway.)
FWIW: I debated with myself about bumping Kennesaw State (idle) to make room for Richmond or perhaps SE Louisiana. Their (0-2) record sticks out like a sore thumb.
... that they might only drop one or even none. But there's another factor too: Missouri State has only been good for a year or two, and was really bad before. My observations show that the pollsters remember those things ... so MSU hasn't yet built up a rep as a strong program. A two-spot drops puts them just below four undefeated teams, which I think will also be a factor.
