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FCS Poll Guesses (Nov 2)

IdaGriz01

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Eight (Wow!) ranked teams lost this weekend, six of them to unranked opponents. The pollsters will have to wake up and do a little work. As usual, I’ll try to make good guesses as to the results, but it’ll be pure dumb luck if my guesses end up close to what comes out tomorrow.

Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1. NDSU (9-0) [1]
2. Montana (9-0) [3]
3. Montana State (7-2) [4]
4. Lehigh (9-0) [7]
5. Tennessee Tech (9-0) [9]
6. Monmouth (8-1) [10]
7. Villanova (6-2) [11]
8. Harvard (7-0) [12]
9. Tarleton State (9-1) [2]
10. Rhode Island (7-2) [13]
11. North Dakota (6-3) [8]
12. SDSU (7-2) [4]
13. UC Davis (6-2) [6]
14. Mercer (7-1) [15]
15. Southern Illinois (6-3) [16]
16. Illinois State (6-3) [17]
17. Stephen F. Austin (7-2) [20]
18. SE Louisiana (7-2) [21]
19. South Dakota (6-4) [NR]
20. Youngstown State (5-4) [18]
21. Jackson State (6-2) [23]
22. Abilene Christian (5-4) [24]
23. Lamar (7-2) [14]
24. Presbyterian (8-1) [25]
25. Western Carolina (6-3) [NR]

Austin Peay (5-4) [22]
Northern Arizona (5-4) [19]

As many on here have observed, Tarleton has played a really weak schedule. Before Saturday, only one of their FCS opponents had a winning record and those teams had a cumulative 30-50 record. Also. Army is now just 4-4, so that “upset” looks not so great any more. Their loss to Abilene Christian finally gave the Wildcats a winning record (we can discuss how AC was ranked #24 with a 4-4 record at some other time). I’m tempted to treat the loss as though it was to an unranked opponent. But I’m not sure the pollsters will see it that way, given how they’ve boosted the Texans all year, despite their sub-par schedule. So I’m compromising my “rules” a bit and guessing they will maybe drop six or seven spots, and hang on in the top-10.

I do not expect the pollsters to cut as much slack for the other top-10 losers, except possibly North Dakota. South Dakota State and Davis lost to teams with bad (3-6) records, so I see them in free-fall out of the top-10. North Dakota will also drop out of the top-10, but I don’t think nearly as much … after all, South Dakota has a winning record and was just out of the top-25.

Lamar also lost to a bad (3-6) unranked opponent, so I see them getting thumped pretty hard by the pollsters.

On the other hand, Youngstown State lost on the road to the #1 team … and they didn’t get blown out. I see them dropping maybe just two to four spots.

These days, with the season Idaho has had, a loss to them counts as a “bad loss.” I think the pollsters will drop the Lumberjacks out of the top-25. They might just hang on, but I don’t expect that.

Same goes for Austin Peay, only more so. I made a case for the upset on that poll, but even with the win, Southern Utah still has a losing record. I’m pretty sure the Governors will be out.

That will leave two spots to fill in the top-25. One is an easy call: South Dakota, with its upset of #8 North Dakota. The next “Other” vote-getter is Western Carolina. Their win at Chattanooga gives the Catamounts a nice record and keeps them in a tie for the lead in the SoCon.

Using my usual “rules of thumb” puts me in an odd position … I have a hard time accepting the rankings they have given me. Lehigh as the #4 team in the country? Sure, the Mountain Hawks are undefeated, but they’ve played a collection of cupcakes (Sacred Heart, Columbia, Georgetown, etc.), and not one ranked opponent.

Same with Tennessee Tech. Undefeated (including one NAIA win), but against cupcakes and not one ranked opponent. The case for Monmouth is a bit better, with a win over ranked Villanova.

As I suggested above, I expect even the most out-of-touch pollsters to choke on anything close to what I have “predicted” above. Personally, I think they need to hit some sort of “reset” button. Treat this weekend as a post-Halloween weirdness and think about which teams are really the best. It will be fascinating to see what shows up.
 
I think you are pretty close in what the polls will be.

But
Lehigh IMO, is not better than
5. Tennessee Tech (9-0) [9]
6. Monmouth (8-1) [10]
7. Villanova (6-2) [11]
8. Harvard (7-0) [12]
9. Tarleton State (9-1) [2]
10. Rhode Island (7-2) [13]
11. North Dakota (6-3) [8]
12. SDSU (7-2) [4]
13. UC Davis (6-2) [6]
14. Mercer (7-1) [15]
15. Southern Illinois (6-3) [16]
 
fltheadgriz said:
At least UNI is not sneaking in at this stage of the year...like all the previous years they have.
The poll looks great...just weird seeing a 7-2 team sandwiched in between four 9-0 teams.
Click to expand...
Agreed. We can discount the FBS loss, since most of the other top teams did not play up. And the SDSU loss looks strange only if you overlook the fact they are a completely different team without their stud QB. Mason did not play at all in their loss to Indiana State ... they had QB by committee. You wonder when or even if Mason gets back in this season.
 
As always Idaho you do a great job. Near impossible to peg how this poll will come out. Though as you know the polls don't accurately reflect which teams are better. They are more a mere sliding scale based on where a team was last week.

So, I really don't see Tarleton dropping from #2 to #9. They'll be punished. Yet a #6 is far more likely for a formerly undefeated team. That drops them below a handful of the remaining undefeated (and our little brother, the bubcats, who lost to a team who lost to Indiana State). The voters who are not paying attention will see that four spot drop for Tarleton as adequate. My two bits.
 
Grizzlies1982 said:
As always Idaho you do a great job. Near impossible to peg how this poll will come out. Though as you know the polls don't accurately reflect which teams are better. They are more a mere sliding scale based on where a team was last week.

So, I really don't see Tarleton dropping from #2 to #9. They'll be punished. Yet a #6 is far more likely for a formerly undefeated team. That drops them below a handful of the remaining undefeated (and our little brother, the bubcats, who lost to a team who lost to Indiana State). The voters who are not paying attention will see that four spot drop for Tarleton as adequate. My two bits.
Click to expand...
You could well be right, given how the pollsters have treated the Texans right from the start. And they have an "excuse," since Abilene Christian is indeed ranked. I could also see them bump AC up a couple more spots.
 
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1. NDSU (9-0) [1]
2. Montana (9-0) [3]
3. Montana State (7-2) [4]
4. Lehigh (9-0) [7]
5. Tennessee Tech (9-0) [9]

Which one of these stands out as fraudulent and not like the others?
 
5280Griz said:
Rank Guess, Team (Record), [Current Rank]
1. NDSU (9-0) [1]
2. Montana (9-0) [3]
3. Montana State (7-2) [4]
4. Lehigh (9-0) [7]
5. Tennessee Tech (9-0) [9]

Which one of these stands out as fraudulent and not like the others?
Click to expand...
Hmmm Lehigh and Tennessee tech both.
 
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