FCS Playoff Field Guesses

[IdaGriz01]

Ain’t it great to be worrying about where the Griz will be put in the playoffs? Hellava lot better than wondering if they will even get in.

Anyway, I figured all these other guys get to “predict” the FCS playoff bids. So why shouldn’t I? I’m going to assume that the favorites will win in most of the final games, and see how that works out. Of course, where two contenders meet, as with Griz-Cat, that will set two final records. I’ll list those assumptions at the bottom, but with possible roadblocks mentioned in the comments for each conference. Note that the records listed include only that team’s Division I games. The auto-bid team is underlined.

The interesting thing is that, with so many teams playing twelve games now, I think a team will need 7 Division I wins just to be on the bubble for a bid.

Conclusions based on these exercises (here, so you don’t have to read everything): Auto-bids and teams with eight or more D-I wins suck up 22 of the 24 playoff slots. Behind them, there will be 5 teams with seven wins (and one possible oddity) fighting over the final two slots. Brutal.

Big Sky
Bids: Montana (10-2), Montana State (8-4), Sac State (8-3), Weber State (9-3)
I have assumed the Griz win over MSU, but if (God forbid) it goes the other way, both teams will get bid anyway. I assume UM will get the auto-bid, but that doesn’t matter either way. No one else even on the bubble from the Big Sky

Big South
Bids: Monmouth (10-2), Kennesaw State (8-2)
Like it or not, at 8-2, K-State will almost certainly get a bid.

Colonial
Bids: James Madison (11-1), Villanova (9-3), Towson (8-4), Albany (8-4)
Albany is on the road at Delaware. While an upset seems unlikely, a loss would put the Danes (then 7-5) on the bubble, IMO.

Missouri Valley
Bids: NDSU (12-0), SDSU (9-3), Illinois State (9-3), UNI (8-4)
Bubble: Southern Illinois (7-5)

Northeast
Bid: Central Connecticut State

Ohio Valley
Bids: Austin Peay (9-3), SEMO State (9-3)
Bubble: UT-Martin (7-5)

Patriot
Bid: Holy Cross (7-5)

Pioneer
Bid: San Diego (9-2)

Southern
Bid: Wofford (7-3)
Bubble: Chattanooga (7-5), Furman (7-4).
Oddity: Citadel (6-6)
The SoCon could end up really weird, starting with Chattanooga. The Mocs have been up and down. They end at VMI and should be favored to win, at least getting them onto the bubble at 7-5. Lose and they’re gone. Furman’s D-I season is done … they play an NAIA team in their final game. I’m not at all sure they will get bid at 7-4. Finally, it happens that The Citadel has a home game against Wofford for their final game. The Terriers have already clinched the SoCon auto-bid, so their motivation might be lacking just a bit. If Citadel pulls off the upset, they go to 7-5 … a bubble team that might just get rewarded with a bid.

Southland
Bid: Central Arkansas (9-3), SE Louisiana (8-3)
Bubble: Nicholls (7-5)
I have no idea how the auto-bid might work out in the Southland. Central Arkansas is at Incarnate Word (5-6) for their last game. Even if they get upset (could happen), I still think they’d be in at 8-4. But SELA and Nicholls face each other in their final game, with SELA favored slightly because they’re at home. Haley things the Southland could get three bids, but I think the loser between SELA and Nicholls stays home.


Assumed wins [and losses]
UM (9-2) over MSU (8-4) || Sac State (7-3) over UC-Davis (5-6) || Weber State (8-3) over ISU (3-8) || Monmouth (9-2) over Hampton (5-6) || Kennesaw State (7-2) over Gardner-Webb (3-8) || JMU (10-1) over Rhode Island (2-9) || Albany (7-4) over Stony Brook (5-6) || Villanova (8-3) over Delaware (5-6) || Towson (7-4) over Elon (4-6) || NDSU (11-0) over SIU (7-4) || SDSU (8-3) over USD (4-7) || Illinois State (8-3) over YSU (5-6) || UNI (7-4) over Western Illinois (1-10) || Austin Peay (8-3) over Eastern Illinois (1-10) || SEMO (8-3) over Murray State (4-7) || Wofford (7-3) over Citadel (6-5) || Chattanooga (6-5) over VMI (4-7) || Central Arkansas (8-3) over Incarnate Word (5-6) || SELA (7-3) over Nicholls (7-4)

 

[MontanaJack2006]

EWU not completely dead if things fall apart for some East coast bubble squads. And, of course, they win.

 

[IdaGriz01]

EWU not completely dead if things fall apart for some East coast bubble squads. And, of course, they win.

True dat! Luckily, they get PSU at home. A 7-5 record might put them on the bubble, and stranger things have happened. But I just do not see five bids for the Big Sky.

 

[Griztrain]

EWU not completely dead if things fall apart for some East coast bubble squads. And, of course, they win.

True dat! Luckily, they get PSU at home. A 7-5 record might put them on the bubble, and stranger things have happened. But I just do not see five bids for the Big Sky.

Only 6 d1 wins is pretty weak, especially for the Fcs runner up.

 

[grizindabox]

EWU not completely dead if things fall apart for some East coast bubble squads. And, of course, they win.

I think EWU is completely dead.

 

[Htowngriz]

EWU not completely dead if things fall apart for some East coast bubble squads. And, of course, they win.

True dat! Luckily, they get PSU at home. A 7-5 record might put them on the bubble, and stranger things have happened. But I just do not see five bids for the Big Sky.

Only 6 d1 wins is pretty weak, especially for the for the Fcs runner up.

In a 12 game season to boot. Not happening IMO.

 

[IdaGriz01]

EWU not completely dead if things fall apart for some East coast bubble squads. And, of course, they win.

True dat! Luckily, they get PSU at home. A 7-5 record might put them on the bubble, and stranger things have happened. But I just do not see five bids for the Big Sky.

Only 6 d1 wins is pretty weak, especially for the for the Fcs runner up.

In a 12 game season to boot. Not happening IMO.

Totally agree ... forgot about that little detail.

Not gonna happen.

 

[Htowngriz]

True dat! Luckily, they get PSU at home. A 7-5 record might put them on the bubble, and stranger things have happened. But I just do not see five bids for the Big Sky.

Only 6 d1 wins is pretty weak, especially for the for the Fcs runner up.

In a 12 game season to boot. Not happening IMO.

Totally agree ... forgot about that little detail.

Not gonna happen.

No biggie. Just happy to see them suffer for once. :lol:

 

[IdaGriz01]

Only 6 d1 wins is pretty weak, especially for the for the Fcs runner up.

In a 12 game season to boot. Not happening IMO.

Totally agree ... forgot about that little detail.

Not gonna happen.

No biggie. Just happy to see them suffer for once. :lol:

And the way the Eags have played at times this year, a win against PSU is not guaranteed. Your "cup would runneth over." :lol:

 

[MontanaJack2006]

EWU not completely dead if things fall apart for some East coast bubble squads. And, of course, they win.

True dat! Luckily, they get PSU at home. A 7-5 record might put them on the bubble, and stranger things have happened. But I just do not see five bids for the Big Sky.

Only 6 d1 wins is pretty weak, especially for the Fcs runner up.

Correct. The outlier this year, however, is that the teams in 20-24 range are really suspect, way more so than in previous years. The only conferences worth a damn this year are MVC, CAA, and Big Sky. The selection committee is going to have to put their ungloved hand into the dumpster and pull out some sort of garbage one way or another for those last three in. Is a 3 loss Kennesaw better than a 7-5 EWU?

Things would have to really line up, but I don't think 5 teams from the Big Sky is dead in the water yet.

 

[IdaGriz01]

...
Correct. The outlier this year, however, is that the teams in 20-24 range are really suspect, way more so than in previous years. The only conferences worth a damn this year are MVC, CAA, and Big Sky. The selection committee is going to have to put their ungloved hand into the dumpster and pull out some sort of garbage one way or another for those last three in. Is a 3 loss Kennesaw better than a 7-5 EWU?

Things would have to really line up, but I don't think 5 teams from the Big Sky is dead in the water yet.

Have to agree that the field seems pretty weak this year.

Here's another factor I forgot to include: "Independent" North Dakota gets to play at home against Southern Utah. I would expect a blowout to give UND a 7-4 record, adding them to the bubble teams.

But to your point: If you eliminate D-II Lindenwood from the EWU schedule, they are currently 5-5. When (if) they beat PSU, they will be 6-5. So they would be trying to edge into a spot ahead of all the other seven (D-I) win teams. K-State will be either 7-3 or 8-2 versus D-I.

The committee might favor a team that played a strong Big Sky schedule, but that's looking pretty shaky. Another competitor for that spot would be Southern Illinois (7-5 after -- almost certainly -- losing to NDSU in their final game). Who do you think they'll give the nod to?

 

[ranco]

EWU is definitely a long shot but, assuming they win this week, it would make 4 in a row. Given their history and if the right teams lose, they could get in.

Also find it interesting that if the Griz and EWU win, the Cats will place 5th in the conference....

 

[Grizzly Oredigger]

EWU is done. North Dakota has a decent shot if there are six 7-win teams fighting for two spots. If they really want a fifth “Big Sky” team in the field they have to put UND ahead of EWU.

 

[IdaGriz01]

EWU is done. North Dakota has a decent shot if there are six 7-win teams fighting for two spots. If they really want a fifth “Big Sky” team in the field they have to put UND ahead of EWU.

If "form holds," per my assumptions, these are the bubble teams, all with seven D-I wins (Sagarin numbers in parentheses):
Southern Illinois (7-5) -- beat FBS UMass, one loss was FBS (54.8)
Furman (7-4) -- two losses were FBS (53.6)
UT-Martin (7-5) -- two losses were FBS (47.6)
Nicholls (7-5) -- two losses were FBS (49.3)
Chattanooga (7-5) -- assumes win at VMI, one loss was FBS (45.6)
North Dakota (7-4) -- yes, they did lose to EWU (49.3)

With just two spots to fill from the bubble, SIU looks like a lock to me. In fact, if they somehow pulled off a miracle upset of NDSU next Saturday, they'd be 8-4 and a lock anyway.

Hard to figure after that, but the Sagarin numbers lean to Furman.

 

[Great Day To Be An Eagle]

 

[IdaGriz01]

Got to wondering about the fact that there are so many teams that already have seven wins or more. So, just out of curiosity, I postulated a “blood bath” against the favorites in their final games. That requires some unlikely but possible upsets. There are also some that seem almost inconceivable: Rhode Island over JMU, Southern Illinois over NDSU, Western Illinois over UNI, and Southern Utah over North Dakota. But hey, we can go with it anyway.

Recall that, to start this exercise, I assumed that form would hold. With that, I found that there would be 22 virtual locks (eight or more D-I wins), along with 6 bubble teams (with seven D-I wins) fighting over the final two bids.

With my imagined upset weekend, I ended up with 19 locks, and 8 bubble teams to fight over the remaining five bids. Different, but not by all that much. Reality is likely to be somewhere in between.