2 weeks until the playoffs, many teams are in - but seeds are still to be determined. I think only 1 or 2 auto bids have been locked up. There's a lot of moving pieces around the FCS, here's what to follow this week:
SE Missouri State vs #21 UT-Martin: Why would one care about a 4-5 SEMO vs 7-2 UT-M? Both are 4-1 in conference. While UT-M is ranked, SEMO clearly is not after a 1 point loss this week to then 2 win Robert Morris. This is another one that bubble teams need to follow. The Big South - OVC is a mess right now. UT-Martin is ranked, however they did suffer a loss to 5-4 Gardner Webb who is also 4-1 in conference. So a win for UT-M doesn't seal up the conference, in fact GW finishes the season against a 1 win and a 4 win team and I think would seal up the auto-bid.
RV Elon vs RV Richmond: Both are probably on the wrong side of the bubble as it is right now, Elon is 5-4, NH is 6-3. However in the giant hot mess that is the CAA both teams are 5-1 and technically tied for 1st. Richmond faces Elon this week and William and Mary next, plus they're on a 4 game winning streak. They could steal one of the last few spots in.
#1 South Dakota State vs #22 Youngstown State: SDSU heads to Ohio for this game. I would assume the Jackrabbits will come away with yet another win, but YSU has proven to be a better team this year. A loss for YSU puts them at 4 on the season (Ohio State, UNI, USD, SDSU) and they finish up against Murray State. Could they be last years Montana, no "bad" losses?
#10 North Dakota vs #6 South Dakota: I have no idea about this UND team. They smoke NDSU at home, then get blanked by UNI. Following those games they beat winless Indiana State by 3 and 2 win Murray State by 14. South Dakota has just 1 conference loss and is battling for a seed.
#12 North Dakota State vs #11 Southern Illinois: Both teams are 6-3 overall and 3-3 in conference, while I don't think a loss by either team pushes them out of the playoffs it certainly ensures they'll be playing the first week of the playoffs. SIU faces currently winless Indiana State next week, while NDSU has to go to UNI. The Bison could be playing for their playoff lives this weekend, which seems wild to say.
Fordham vs #25 Lafayette: Fordham I don't think can win the Patriot, but they can help Holy Cross this weekend if they beat Lafayette. This is another instance where bubble teams are going to be pulling for a Fordham upset because if Layfayette wins out (6 win Fordham, 2 win Lehigh) and Holy Cross wins their last conference game (they play Army this week then 4 win Georgetown) the committee might send 2 schools from the Patriot. Lafayette would win the conference and auto-bid and Holy Cross is in the "RV" category. Add in that Army isn't very good, if HC pulls off that win... you know how the pollsters will react to that.
Lamar @ Nicholls: Ahhh the Southland. We've got 5-4 Lamar who is 4-1 in conference playing 4-4 Nicholls who is 4-0 in conference. Meanwhile 7-2 Incarnate Word is off and just last week lost to Nicholls. Nicholls has 2 win SELA after this game, Lamar has 0 win McNeese. Again, bubble teams I think will want Lamar to win, bc UIW beat Lamar, but I'm unsure the tie breaker with all of that. If Nicholls wins Saturday they win the conference and will head to the playoffs, probably at 6-4. Then the debate of with UIW is worth the playoffs really heats up bc while they currently have 7 wins, and will finish with 8 (they were supposed to play NW State this week) they have absolutely no good wins.
SE Missouri State vs #21 UT-Martin: Why would one care about a 4-5 SEMO vs 7-2 UT-M? Both are 4-1 in conference. While UT-M is ranked, SEMO clearly is not after a 1 point loss this week to then 2 win Robert Morris. This is another one that bubble teams need to follow. The Big South - OVC is a mess right now. UT-Martin is ranked, however they did suffer a loss to 5-4 Gardner Webb who is also 4-1 in conference. So a win for UT-M doesn't seal up the conference, in fact GW finishes the season against a 1 win and a 4 win team and I think would seal up the auto-bid.
RV Elon vs RV Richmond: Both are probably on the wrong side of the bubble as it is right now, Elon is 5-4, NH is 6-3. However in the giant hot mess that is the CAA both teams are 5-1 and technically tied for 1st. Richmond faces Elon this week and William and Mary next, plus they're on a 4 game winning streak. They could steal one of the last few spots in.
#1 South Dakota State vs #22 Youngstown State: SDSU heads to Ohio for this game. I would assume the Jackrabbits will come away with yet another win, but YSU has proven to be a better team this year. A loss for YSU puts them at 4 on the season (Ohio State, UNI, USD, SDSU) and they finish up against Murray State. Could they be last years Montana, no "bad" losses?
#10 North Dakota vs #6 South Dakota: I have no idea about this UND team. They smoke NDSU at home, then get blanked by UNI. Following those games they beat winless Indiana State by 3 and 2 win Murray State by 14. South Dakota has just 1 conference loss and is battling for a seed.
#12 North Dakota State vs #11 Southern Illinois: Both teams are 6-3 overall and 3-3 in conference, while I don't think a loss by either team pushes them out of the playoffs it certainly ensures they'll be playing the first week of the playoffs. SIU faces currently winless Indiana State next week, while NDSU has to go to UNI. The Bison could be playing for their playoff lives this weekend, which seems wild to say.
Fordham vs #25 Lafayette: Fordham I don't think can win the Patriot, but they can help Holy Cross this weekend if they beat Lafayette. This is another instance where bubble teams are going to be pulling for a Fordham upset because if Layfayette wins out (6 win Fordham, 2 win Lehigh) and Holy Cross wins their last conference game (they play Army this week then 4 win Georgetown) the committee might send 2 schools from the Patriot. Lafayette would win the conference and auto-bid and Holy Cross is in the "RV" category. Add in that Army isn't very good, if HC pulls off that win... you know how the pollsters will react to that.
Lamar @ Nicholls: Ahhh the Southland. We've got 5-4 Lamar who is 4-1 in conference playing 4-4 Nicholls who is 4-0 in conference. Meanwhile 7-2 Incarnate Word is off and just last week lost to Nicholls. Nicholls has 2 win SELA after this game, Lamar has 0 win McNeese. Again, bubble teams I think will want Lamar to win, bc UIW beat Lamar, but I'm unsure the tie breaker with all of that. If Nicholls wins Saturday they win the conference and will head to the playoffs, probably at 6-4. Then the debate of with UIW is worth the playoffs really heats up bc while they currently have 7 wins, and will finish with 8 (they were supposed to play NW State this week) they have absolutely no good wins.
