Great post, and obviously you know more than most of the rest of us about defensive scheming. I am certainly only a pedestrian fan and probably all wet like everyone here tells me every post, but I have thoughts on this as well.Will try to explain this without charts and graphs.
The core belief that I believe was issued on high from the lord and savior Knute Rockne some 100 years ago, and has become almost cult like in obsession in and out of coaching circles is that 'thou shalt not defeateth the power horde offense with an oddeth fronteth." When I started coaching football in the early 2000's, I heard it over and over again. So much so that I drank the proverbial kool-aid in that regard.
I've learned a LOT more over the years that defensive orthodoxy leaves a lot to be desired when it comes to what actually works versus doesn't. Part of the reason is that if you rigidly apply scheme, then yes it doesn't necessarily work against power schemes to allow them to simply ORO you and down block your NT w/ leverage all day long. The belief was that you couldn't leave a guards uncovered, because they could reach your LB's too easily. Again if you are reading and reacting from depth as LB's were taught to for decades, to slow play, read the guards, and flow, your LB's will be on the underside of blocks all game long. Tough to play that way.
The 4-2 and the 3-3 both unhinge a lot of the traditional rules about interior LB play and how you use your DL to play on the LOS. I coached in a league where we saw wing-t, veer iso and classic lead/power zone 90% of our season and when we were moving from the stack 4-4 to the 3-5-3, I thought it was absurd we'd make that decision. We took the GMC 3-5-3 which is all line movement and paired it with tons of combo pressure from our interior 3 LB's and teams we couldn't stop playing 4-4 and 4-6 looks in the wing-t for four years, and they absolutely couldn't handle the DL movement and how quickly our LB's were at the LOS. Our NT was a 6-1 kid who was maybe 190 pounds, and he ended up as a first team all league DL because sort of like Gubner, they didn't have an answer for his first step. You can absolutely flubber power teams if you compress their decision making and speed them up.
I just think you can look at what offensive teams want to do, and you can take your personnel and your scheme and you can absolutely manipulate it to get the best type of scheme. The next year we recognized we couldn't play the same way with just a 30 and found an answer a few games in by playing a hybrid over/under front with a stand up LB on the weakside in a quasi-40. The 3-3 allows for that in multiple variations and you can play it just about any way you want. Just so long that your willing to understand what you get/lose with those subtle adjustments and as long as you aren't static in your play calling, what you lose (gap integrity/gap control w/ bodies) you can make up in variance and speed.
Hopefully that makes some sense. There is a reason why I am just a pedestrian blogger.
I think that a bigger contributor to the changing of LB play, and the downfall of the wing-t was the elimination of the chop block and the introduction of the hybrid DE/LB and LB/S. That led to the 4-2 or 3-3 defensive schemes rather than the other way around, IMHO. The wing-t, the lead power zone and the 4-4 stack front do not apply to Div I football anymore because of the above-mentioned. I certainly agree that power run teams can absolutely be stopped by speeding them up. The Miami Hurricanes showed this all throughout the 90s.
Many Div I offenses that the griz face largely run the zone read, plus one run game. If you’re going to run a 3-3 stack front like Baer favors, then you absolutely need a great NT. If your NT is not stellar, your LB’s must cheat to the interior side of the DE’s and your front will resemble a 4-2 or 4-3 with your DE’s playing 9 tech on the SS and 5 tech on the WS for edge security with your rover playing in the box. If they are down blocking your NT then he has done his job.
I think the question this year for the griz will be how well they shut down the first read on the inside or outside zone. If the first read in a zone read is open consistently, things will snowball, and you are not going to win against a good team.
Great interior linemen are not generally available in the portal. They are developed and built in the weight room in the off season. It does sound like the griz have some good guys up front. I do believe strongly that Jake Mason will be a very solid guy in a short time that will allow the griz defense to do a lot of things.
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