This is looking like a tough year for bid/bracket guessers. Even I might have trouble.
I have have a formula I use to figure out who will get bids. It works really well: I have never missed more than two of the at-large bids, and often do better than that (overall success rate is 95.5%). My approach is simple: “Just win, Baby!” But I don’t give a s**t about “good wins” or “bad losses.” Your regular-season win total (adjusted for the strength of the conference) gets you in the mix, then tweaking with the NET, BPI, and SOS does the rest. (FYI: NET and RPI give very similar results.) Takes maybe an hour. Don’t know why the NCAA bitches about how hard the bid-selection process is.
Admittedly, I do not even try to assigns seeds. Now, that would be tough. So I leave that to the people who get paid to do it.
All that being said, by the time the conference tournaments start (i.e., right now), my formula usually has the number of potential qualifiers down to about 80. (That includes the favorites for each conference title, BTW.) This year, I am already up to 84, even though over half the conferences still have some regular season games scheduled. I expect to pick up six to eight more teams in the mix in the next week, running the total to over 90. Instead of needing to bump maybe a dozen teams that have enough wins to rate consideration for an at-large bid, we may end up with over twenty. Ouch!