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Early Bracket Fun

C

cmtgrizzly

Well-known member
So Potomac kindly posted a skeleton of the bracket (in the Big Sky Conference Tourney thread) for this years conference tournament. If the teams keep their current rankings (I know a big if) then it would look like this:

First Round-

NCU vs PSU
IU vs SUU
MSU vs Sac
ND vs NAU

Going with "chalk"

Second round-

UM vs NCU
IU vs ISU
WSU vs MSU
EWU vs ND

Semi's

UM vs ISU
WSU vs EWU

FInals

UM VS WSU

Champ

UM

Who would argue against "chalk" and which upsets would you pick?

Being a Griz fan chalk is fine with me though I do think there will be some tough games and probably a couple of upsets. Honestly I haven't seen everyone play this year. I have not seen UNC, WSU or IU this year so if you pick an upset give a little reasoning as to why.
 
If MSU happened to get hot behind the line I could potentially see them pulling an upset with WSU. I don't think that's likely but if they play a complete game and get hot who knows. I don't think UNC beats UM. Idaho/ISU is a tossup for me. I haven't seen enough of ISU to know much about them. I do know they beat WSU already though so I'd guess they can handle Idaho. Again, given the right circumstances UND could pull an upset on EWU but I think that is also unlikely.

For the "chalk" semis either of those games could easily go either way on a neutral court. If UM has a poor shooting night and ISU plays well they could very well beat us. I don't really think ISU makes a run and wins it all however simply because they haven't been there with current players and I think at some point fatigue and lack of experience play a role. Like I said above though, they already handled WSU so I'm not writing them off in any game. Based on what Breunig did to EWU I think Bolomboy has a field day, however EWU still has so many shooters that that game could go either way too. I think in a non-neutral court the home team wins. In this case I think I still take WSU simply because of Rahe's experience.

I think realistically the champion and Big Sky rep in the tourney could be anyone between UM, EWU, WSU. I would be a little surprised if someone else won out, but not incredibly shocked.
 
Don't be selling UND short. They are plenty capable and very improved since the conference season started. For me, it is a toss up between the GRIZ and Weber State. I don't see any 1 program being able to beat both of them in the semis, then the championship. Any other teams will need some help by the GRIZ and/or Weber State losing in the quarterfinals.
 
Yeah we did have some trouble with UND and I do think they are a tough out. I also get the sense that IDTLG feels ISU is a tough out as well. I agree with that sentiment as well and after they beat us they make me a little nervous. I think if our guards can avoid a poor performance, the likes of which we have not seen since early in the season, and Gfeller or Lopez can contribute as they have been lately I don't think either UND nor ISU nor anyone else will beat us.
 
cmtgrizzly said:
Yeah we did have some trouble with UND and I do think they are a tough out. I also get the sense that IDTLG feels ISU is a tough out as well. I agree with that sentiment as well and after they beat us they make me a little nervous. I think if our guards can avoid a poor performance, the likes of which we have not seen since early in the season, and Gfeller or Lopez can contribute as they have been lately I don't think either UND nor ISU nor anyone else will beat us.
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Actually, it was quite recent when our guards struggled. They struggled a lot in the loss to Sac State.
 
I think there are 6 teams with a shot to win it this year. I would say UM, Weber, EWU, ISU, Idaho, and UND all have a shot, it will be interesting. Everyone keeps saying how good Weber is this year, but do we really know? They haven't played UM, Idaho, or EWU yet and thats who they finish with...
 
marceagfan5 said:
I think there are 6 teams with a shot to win it this year. I would say UM, Weber, EWU, ISU, Idaho, and UND all have a shot, it will be interesting. Everyone keeps saying how good Weber is this year, but do we really know? They haven't played UM, Idaho, or EWU yet and thats who they finish with...
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Very good question, and I would love to see them stumble down the stretch run. Then again, 1st and 2nd place are on equal footing with new tournament set up. As for me, since Rahe has been coach there, I really respect them every season. I also am an advocate of strong presence in the middle for defense, rebounding, and post scoring, they have that with Bolomboy.
 
I know our guards have struggled at times since the early games but in some of those early games they not only performed poorly they looked as if they were lost and overly nervous which led to lack of contribution. Could the pressure of a single elimination tourney stifle their contribution again? Sure but I think they are more comfortable now and hopefully will play with more poise. I have no illusions about the status of our guard play.
 
cmtgrizzly said:
I know our guards have struggled at times since the early games but in some of those early games they not only performed poorly they looked as if they were lost and overly nervous which led to lack of contribution. Could the pressure of a single elimination tourney stifle their contribution again? Sure but I think they are more comfortable now and hopefully will play with more poise. I have no illusions about the status of our guard play.
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It is possible they struggle. However, I doubt they will struggle like that again. The GRIZ have way too much talent at guard to have them all struggle in 1 game. At least now, the occasional struggles are just shooting the ball. Early in the season they struggled with execution. I actually expected those struggles for new guards coming into DIV 1 basketball. Oguine and Wright sure have surpassed my expectations as a whole, this year. Oguine is likely to go down as one of the all time GRIZ greats, as long as he stays healthy. Every game, no matter the competition, he does a few OMG moments. Imagine what he will be like as SR with about 20 more pounds? :thumb: #canyousayjawdropping?
 
100% agreed MTGR. One of the reasons I wish MB was a sophomore or at least a junior. The guards in the pipeline along with Breunig would be the backbone of a truly special mid major team. If we could have that situation and win a game or, God willing, two games in the NCAA tourney we could change our status long term. I guess this is the difference between a top notch mid major (ie Gonzaga)/perennial D1 top 25 team. They are able to recruit stars to multiple positions concurrently whereas we seem to have one true star at one position at a time and by the time the next star is developed the previous star is graduating. Hopefully TD can change this. I like his recruiting so far.
 
Weber's great, but I like EWU to beat WSU! Not fond of Jois, but he's a beast! Definitely don't want to be in their bracket for the tournament.
 
rocklobster said:
Weber's great, but I like EWU to beat WSU! Not fond of Jois, but he's a beast! Definitely don't want to be in their bracket for the tournament.
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Eastern has won 7 straight and 10 of 12, and are rolling right now. Don't be surprised to see Eastern grab the 2 seed this year, its not out of reach as Weber still has to play the Griz and come to Cheney/Moscow where no one in the last two years has gone on the EWU/IDAHO trip and not lost at least once.

Mcbroom may be a sleeper pick for conference player of the year, he's averaging 23/game in conference and had 72 in 2 games last week while being named national player of the week.
 
marceagfan5 said:
rocklobster said:
Weber's great, but I like EWU to beat WSU! Not fond of Jois, but he's a beast! Definitely don't want to be in their bracket for the tournament.
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Eastern has won 7 straight and 10 of 12, and are rolling right now. Don't be surprised to see Eastern grab the 2 seed this year, its not out of reach as Weber still has to play the Griz and come to Cheney/Moscow where no one in the last two years has gone on the EWU/IDAHO trip and not lost at least once.

Mcbroom may be a sleeper pick for conference player of the year, he's averaging 23/game in conference and had 72 in 2 games last week while being named national player of the week.
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Always a tough out! Lots of tournament experience. Really well coached!
 
Yeah I think this years tourney could be very good (basketball wise, not location) as there are several teams playing well right now and honestly any of the top 4 teams could beat each other even if both teams in a given game play well. We have seen any of the top teams are vulnerable even to lower teams if they aren't playing well. I just hope our representative comes from the top 3 or 4 teams from conference results.
 
I don't think Eastern will get the 1 seed, but I think they're a lock for at least the 2. Since UM doesn't go to Cheney (thanks bsc!!!!), Montana essentially has a 3 game lead over Eastern in the loss column since they hold the tie break. I don't see UM losing 3 of their remaining games.

Frankly, I think Weber has the inside track for the one. If they beat UM in Ogden (a likelihood), they would basically have a 2 game lead for the same reason, they don't have to travel to Missoula (thanks bsc!!!!!). While I think they'll lose in Cheney, I don't see them losing in Moscow.

I predict:

1. Weber
2. UM
3. EWU
4. Idaho
5. UND (they hold the TB over ISU and have a favorable schedule with 3 at home)
6. ISU
7. MSU
8. Winner of the 2/27 game between PSU and UNC

9-2,584 (or how every many teams are in this damn league). Who cares.
 
EverettGriz said:
I don't think Eastern will get the 1 seed, but I think they're a lock for at least the 2. Since UM doesn't go to Cheney (thanks bsc!!!!), Montana essentially has a 3 game lead over Eastern in the loss column since they hold the tie break. I don't see UM losing 3 of their remaining games.

Frankly, I think Weber has the inside track for the one. If they beat UM in Ogden (a likelihood), they would basically have a 2 game lead for the same reason, they don't have to travel to Missoula (thanks bsc!!!!!). While I think they'll lose in Cheney, I don't see them losing in Moscow.

I predict:

1. Weber
2. UM
3. EWU
4. Idaho
5. UND (they hold the TB over ISU and have a favorable schedule with 3 at home)
6. ISU
7. MSU
8. Winner of the 2/27 game between PSU and UNC

9-2,584 (or how every many teams are in this damn league). Who cares.
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Thanks to the neutral site, there really is not a difference between 1 and 2 seeds, other than the side of the bracket you are on. :thumb:
 
mtgrizrule said:
EverettGriz said:
I don't think Eastern will get the 1 seed, but I think they're a lock for at least the 2. Since UM doesn't go to Cheney (thanks bsc!!!!), Montana essentially has a 3 game lead over Eastern in the loss column since they hold the tie break. I don't see UM losing 3 of their remaining games.

Frankly, I think Weber has the inside track for the one. If they beat UM in Ogden (a likelihood), they would basically have a 2 game lead for the same reason, they don't have to travel to Missoula (thanks bsc!!!!!). While I think they'll lose in Cheney, I don't see them losing in Moscow.

I predict:

1. Weber
2. UM
3. EWU
4. Idaho
5. UND (they hold the TB over ISU and have a favorable schedule with 3 at home)
6. ISU
7. MSU
8. Winner of the 2/27 game between PSU and UNC

9-2,584 (or how every many teams are in this damn league). Who cares.
Click to expand...

Thanks to the neutral site, there really is not a difference between 1 and 2 seeds, other than the side of the bracket you are on. :thumb:
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Well, except for the guarantee of an NIT bid should you not win the tournament.
 
Buttegrizzle said:
And don't forget that participation medal. Hey! It means a lot to some of these kids.
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Just ask Mr. "Played the Game". He sure does like to show off his participation medals.
 
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