I too got to wondering who had the toughest schedule, so -- being a numbers guy -- I tried to calculate something. I started by rating the strength of all the Big Sky teams. Nothing fancy, I just calculated each team’s average number of wins over the past three years. I did
not try to factor FBS or D-II opponents or any of that … just the total number of wins. I might have done something difference if those numbers turned out weird, but I thought the results were “good enough” for the purpose. The overall average for all BSC teams was 5.7 wins per year. So by the numbers, EWU, the Griz, and NAU are in the top tier, while NoCol, WSU, and UC-Davis are at the bottom. That pretty much agrees with what most of us would figure. The rest fall somewhere in between, and their relative positions fit okay with our gut feelings.
Team Strength (Average wins, three-year span)
9.7 EWU
9.0 Griz
7.7 NAU
6.7 MSU
6.3 SUU
6.0 PSU
5.7 Cal Poly
5.0 NoDak
4.7 Sac St
4.3 ISU
3.3 NoCol
3.3 WSU
3.0 UC-Davis
So for each Big Sky team I averaged the strengths of their conference games. I did not try to assess the OOC schedules because it’s the path to the conference “championship” that’s of interest. The schedulers actually did a pretty good job, considering all the factors involved, in giving everyone a reasonably competitive schedule -- the average difficulty ranges only across 1.5 points. The numbers do support the notion that ISU has the toughest conference schedule, BTW.
Conference Schedule Difficulty
6.5 ISU
6.4 NoCol
6.1 Griz
6.1 MSU
6.0 NAU
5.7 EWU
5.7 UC-Davis
5.6 SUU
5.6 WSU
5.5 Cal Poly
5.4 Sac St
5.2 NoDak
5.0 PSU
The ISU number get
s way worse if you look at the road games versus home.
Code:
Road Home
ISU 8.1 4.8
UC-Davis 7.1 4.3
Griz 6.6 5.5
EWU 6.5 4.9
SUU 6.5 4.8
NoCol 6.1 6.6
MSU 5.8 6.4
Sac St 4.9 5.9
Cal Poly 4.8 6.3
NoDak 4.8 5.8
WSU 4.7 6.5
NAU 4.6 7.3
PSU 4.3 5.8
ISU plays their three toughest opponents -- EWU, NAU and UM -- on the road, as well as PSU. They get SUU plus some weak sisters at home, but, overall, they have a murderous schedule even without those two body bag games.
UC-Davis seems to have a middle-of-the-road conference schedule, but they too have a killer road schedule, with that 7.1 ratting. That’s because they play EWU, SUU, Cal Poly, and MSU on the road. They get to feast on WSU, NoCol and Sac State at home … but they also get PSU.
The observation about Portland State is right on the money BTW. Not only do they have the weakest overall conference schedule, they have by far the easiest road schedule. They play their toughest opponents, such as they are, at home … although they do close out the season with EWU, so it’s not all clear sailing.
One of the more interesting cases is NAU. Their schedule seems to be just a bit harder than EWU’s. However, NAU gets all but one of its tough opponents at home: EWU, Griz, and SUU. Their only moderately tough game on the road is at MSU. EWU has a much tougher road schedule.
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