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BSC basketball, more questions than answers

mtgrizrule

Well-known member
I expected this conference to be very competitive this year as for 2-7 spots. However, the chase for the 1 spot is also competitive. Early on it looked like PSU would dominate this conference. They have come back to earth, meanwhile the GRIZ and Weber State also contending for the title. I feel these have seperated themselves from rest of the pack. Of the 3, for me it is hard to grasp who is truely the best? All can present a legit claim.

Weber State- Top record and an impressive road win against PSU, and very solid team. They have a good coach,smart, players that know their roles, and good attitudes. Despite all that there is just something about this team that is hard to pinpoint that keeps me from putting them in the top spot.

Montana- Without a doubt a much improved unit since the ISU/WSU road debacle. They are clicking, and continue to improve every game. It took nearly 2 years, but they finally have learned to not let offense alone effect rest of their game. They are playing the best defense in the conference game in and game out right now. To be honest, I do not see that changing this year either. They are not relying on other teams struggling, but causing teams to struggle. Inside defense is very good, but can be handled if teams get Qvale and Hasquet in trouble. The loss of Selvig is huge defensively. He and Qvale always meant the GRIZ would have a shotblocker in the paint. Perimeter defense, is more of being in position and challenge the shooters. It is effective this year, but I feel with AJ, CET, and McGillis they could create more steals. I hope that comes around by tourney time.

Offensively, the GRIZ still struggle now and then. With that said though, they have figured a few things out. They are staying spread and giving eachother room. A month ago, offense resembled a cluster of disorganization (nicest I could put it). AJ, when needed takes a game over, and is learning to make teammates better. Hasquet, is being used in a variety of ways, and is no longer just hanging out at 3. He is in the paint some. He appears to be more aggressive in penetrating, and helping his teammates too. They are looking to Sharp and Qvale more in the paint too, and even using McGillis in different ways now.

So what is keeping me from putting the favorite tag on them? (1) Respect to Weber State. I think Rahe is the leagues best coach. (2) Portland State's perimeter and athleticism. When on, they are fun and dangerous. (3) Offensive inconsistency may rear it's ugly head again.

Portland State is where the GRIZ were a month ago. They too are talented, and much more athletic. Yet over the last month have shown some weakness. Portland State seems to have lost some cohesiveness and discipline of late. They are forcing shots and pressing, almost in a panic stage on offense now and then. They rely way too much on the perimeter game, and in turn not very well balanced offensively. They need to learn to find ways to get the ball inside consistently. To be honest, I have not seen that all year from PSU, but feel if they do not learn to do it, they will fall short of the NCAA tourney.

Defensively, they can be exposed inside and have very little depth. For this team to make the NCAA tourney, they better hope for improved inside play, or red hot perimeter shooting. Being they are capable of both, I cannot write them off.

Of the 3, Montana is the deepest and can beat teams with the most variety. Weber State is the best coached and most consistent. Portland State is the most athletic. Right now, I rank them WSU, Montana, then PSU. I am very close to putting the GRIZ #1, but just cannot due to their inconsisteny play the last 2 years.

As for rest of the conference, It is a given that Sac State and NAU are at the bottom. Here is the rest as I see it.

Northern Colorado, this team scares me. They shoot the ball well. They are young, and that youth is starting to gell nicely. They are capable of beating anyone. I just do not see them having the depth or experience to put them any higher.

ISU always brings it defensively, plays together, and very seldom loses intensity. They also have some size and athleticism. They just are not consistent enough or deep enough to much more than a spoiler.

Montana State has a few nice parts in place. The problem is the word "few", too few to be a contender yet. They play solid defense and rebound well. Other than Mbunga, their bigs are too young and not ready to contribute game in, game out. The few games I have seen them on TV or internet, I have noticed somethings that surprises me for a Huse coached team. FT struggles, and forced shots are happening a little too often. I feel that is due them trying find some answers more than from bad coaching though. Those things aside, the CATS just do not have the depth to be more than average.

EWU has to have everything clicking for them to do damage. I think they need to more talent and rely way too much on hoping for a player or players too get hot. They really struggle to run an efficient offense. They have wide bodies, the problem is they have too many widebodies that do not do much more than get position and bully. They really do remind me more of a football team in shoulder pads than a basketball team. Earlywine has done well in making them a playoff contender. Personnel wise though, they are nowhere near the teams mentioned ahead of them. They need a serious infusion of ball players. I hope they get them too. I like pulling for EWU.

Opinions please, I will be posting this on bigskyfans too.
 
Good synopsis.

At this point, in my mind, Weber is the clear favorite. Not only are they two games up in the loss column on both PSU and Montana, but they have the most-favorable schedule for 3 reasons. First they have 4 home games, 2 road games (vs. 2-3 for PSU and Montana). Second, they play PSU at home and would essentially knock them out of contention with a victory. And finally, while they have Montana and Montana State still on the road, unlike most BSC teams, they don't have to play them back-to-back on the same weekend. Granted, they have to travel to Montana twice, but I still think that's a huge advantage to them.

PSU probably has the toughest road. Not only do they have the ISU/Weber road trip, but they also have UNC and MSU at home, either of which is capable of winning in Portland. And of course they have the extra Bracketbuster game thrown in in the middle of their remaining schedule giving them less prep time for BSC games.

Montana it would seem, would likely need to win-out to have any real hope (a Weber victory over PSU puts Montana in a world of hurt as it gives Weber the tie-break, essentially giving them a 3 game lead). That seems a pretty tall order with 3 road games remaining. However, on paper at least, all 3 seem winnable. It all starts this weekend with Sac and NAU. Always a tough road trip, but get two out of two on that trip and now Weber comes to Missoula to face a team with a full head of steam.

No matter what, it should be fun down the stretch.
 
Two things:
1. if Montana wins out and MSU finishes ahead of ISU, Griz will have second place for sure.
2. if PSU does beat WSU on the road, along with 1, Griz will finish first.

That sweep of the Cats just may be the tie breaker the Griz need over WSU and PSU assuming ISU finishes lower than MSU, and UM, WSU, and PSU all split their games.


I do think there is a good chance of number 1. I also think there is a fair to good chance of number 2. Griz are playing better and improving. The games left on the road are against the weaker teams of the league, except Northern Colorado. The toughest part of the equation may be MSU finishing ahead of ISU.

But, at this point, WSU does have the advantage with a two game lead. But, that could lost by losing to Griz and PSU.
 
mporter said:
The host determination will come down to two games

psu@wsu
wsu@um



those are both gonna be good games. I hope the Dee Events Center can get 8,000 plus the night PSU comes to town.
 
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