Big Sky Conference Prediction (for women)

[TrueGriz]

Now that the conference games for women will be getting under way this week, thought I would provide my prediction.

I think the battle to host the tournament is going to be either in Missoula or Flagstaff this year.

Both Lady Griz and the Lumberjacks have beat teams in the top 100 in RPI this year, and neither of them lost to a team ranked outside the top 100 in RPI. Lumberjacks have lost to a team ranked currently 100, though, but that was early in the season when Wahl wasn't playing. In contrast, both Lady Griz losses came to teams ranked in the top 50 in RPI.

Lady Griz's strength of schedule is ranked a little higher than NAU, though, not enough for Lady Griz to be clear favorite. NAU has faced tougher competition than the Lady Griz, having played 2 teams in the top 25. One of those games having lost by only 5 points to a team ranked 21 currently.

When it comes to Sagarin rankings, Lady Griz are ranked higher than NAU, but NAU's strength of schedule is better.

All the rest of teams in the Big Sky have lost to teams ranked outside the top 100 in RPI and haven't beaten anybody in top 100. Big Sky Conference is ranked 17th currently.

Lady Griz have the best defense, but offensively, have a very tough time shooting. NAU has the best shooting team percentage wise, but score less per game compared to Lady Griz. Defensively, Lady Griz are better but not by much.

Okay, My predictions:

1. Lady Griz
1. NAU
3. Weber State
4. ISU
5. EWU
6. Sac St
7. PSU
8. MSU

Yeah, I am predicting a tie between NAU and Lady Griz, and record against the other teams or RPI will determine host site. If Lady Griz can start shooting better, that may possibly make a difference.

 

[Grizbacker1]

Since when did RPI ever determine a host site in the BSC? The last tie I recall there was a coin flip.

 

[Swillbury]

Lady Griz

:thumb:

 

[TrueGriz]

Since when did RPI ever determine a host site in the BSC? The last tie I recall there was a coin flip.

Never did, but it is in the tie breaker procedure, so can happen. Not sure when it was put in the tie breaker procedure. Certainly after 1993.


Tie breaker is(and I hope I didn't forget a step, but RPI is next to last before coin flip):

1. head to head - Lady Griz beat NAU both times or vice versa

if that doesn't decide tie breaker:

2. record against other teams from top to bottom - the team that beat a school that finished the highest wins tie breaker

And if that doesn't decide tie breaker:

3. RPI

And if by some lucky coincidence their RPIs are the same:
4. coin flip - but chances of having equal RPI is very small so very unlikely ever to have a coin flip.

 

[bozbobcat]

NAU appears to be pretty strong in women's basketball right now. But the Grizzlies are the Grizzlies...they'll find a way to win 12 or 13 conference games. I have to agree with the rest of the picks that TrueGriz made. 3 through 7 are really a toss up. MSU is looking at last place and had another player go down due to knee surgery, leaving only 9 players on the active roster.