Current Standings w/ games remaining and opponent:
1. Eastern Washington 12-3 (3 games: 2/29: v. #3 Montana, v. 3/2: #6 Montana State, 3/4: @ #10 Sacramento State)
2. Northern Colorado 10-5 (3 games: 2/29: @ #4 Weber State, v. 3/2: @ #5 Idaho State, 3/4: @ #8 Northern Arizona)
3. Montana 10-5 (3 games 2/29: @Eastern Washington, @ 3/2 #9 Idaho, 3/4: v. #5 Idaho State)
4. Weber State 9-6 (3 games: 2/29: v. #2 Northern Colorado, 3/2: v. #8 Northern Arizona, 3/4: @ #6 Montana State)
5. Montana State 7-8 (3 games: 2/29: @ #9 Idaho, 3/2: @ #1 Eastern Washington, 3/4: v. #4 Weber State)
6. Idaho State 7-8 (3 games: 2/29: v. #8 Northern Arizona, 3/2: #2 v. Northern Colorado, 3/4: @ #3 Montana)
7. Portland State 7-9 (2 games: 3/2: @ #10 Sacramento State, 3/4: v. #9 Idaho)
8. Northern Arizona 6-9 (3 games: 2/29: @ #4 Weber State, 3/2: @ #5 Idaho State, 3/4: v. #2 Northern Colorado)
9. Idaho 5-10 (3 games: 2/29: v. #6 Montana State, 3/2: v. #3 Montana, 3/4: @ #7 Portland State)
10. Sacramento State 3-13 (2 games: 3/2: v. #7 Portland State, 3/4: v. #1 Eastern Washington)
-- Big Sky Title (win outright only and not in absurdly complex scenarios in a lot of tiebreaks)
Eastern Washington: Any two wins ensures a title. Can win with just one if they defeat Montana on Thursday, or in any scenario where they are tied with NC alone (own tie break).
Northern Colorado: Needs to be 1 game clear of Eastern and owns any tie break where they are in a tie between themselves and Montana. As such need to go 3-0 and Eastern Washington would have to go 0-3
Montana: Can win in a scenario where they go 3-0 and Eastern goes 1-2 (trust me it exists), but similar to Northern Colorado, the clearest path is an 0-3 EWU weekend and NC losing at least one game.
Weber State: Can get there mathematically, but would need a combo of 3 Eastern losses, and some other elements including at least 1 loss from Montana and Northern Colorado.
-- Top 2 Seeds:
-- Eastern Washington is a pretty much near lock for 1 and 2. Just needs 1 win over Montana to guarantee a top 2 finish.
-- Northern Colorado: 3 wins gets them the #2 regardless of how Eastern does by virtue of their tie break advantage over Montana. Can go 2-1 if Montana loses a game or in any scenario where they are tied.
-- Montana: 3 wins with any NC loss, needs to be 1 game clear with NC. Or a scenario where Montana, Weber State and NC are tied and a whole host of other complex scenarios where Montana beats Eastern while still being tied with NC and WSU.
-- Weber State: Needs a win over NC to make any of it happen and would own a tie break over NC. Best path forward is for a victory over NC, Montana loses two of their last three or doesn't beat Eastern. There are some other scenarios that require an abacus and a shaman to figure out.
If the tournament were today:
1. EWU Bye v. Idaho/SS winner
2. UNC Bye v. PSU/NAU winner
3. Montana v. #6 Idaho State (Day 3)
4. Weber State v. #5 Montana State (Day 3)
---
By record, this is Eastern's conference to lose. They have all the leverage. The last three games for Northern Colorado is by far the most daunting of any of the league leaders. All on the road at teams just behind them in the standings (Weber/ISU) and the last is in Flagstaff on the last of a 3 games in 5 days. NC has the inside track courtesy of their tie break v. UM, but they likely need a win v. WSU to seal up their top two seed. Montana has three tricky games but two of them are winnable (@ Idaho and home v. ISU) and 2-1, even with a loss to EWU might be enough to find a way to that coveted #2 seed. Weber is in a position where they can sneak by the product of having NC at home and how difficult the rest of the schedule is for Montana and NC and could slide in the back door and that game in Bozeman on Monday night be absolutely enormous. Wouldn't be at all surprised if Weber goes 3-0 they end the season as the #2 seed.
-- edited to reflect missed current tie break between MSU and ISU. MSU is now 5th, ISU is 6th. - Thanks to Saccat
1. Eastern Washington 12-3 (3 games: 2/29: v. #3 Montana, v. 3/2: #6 Montana State, 3/4: @ #10 Sacramento State)
2. Northern Colorado 10-5 (3 games: 2/29: @ #4 Weber State, v. 3/2: @ #5 Idaho State, 3/4: @ #8 Northern Arizona)
3. Montana 10-5 (3 games 2/29: @Eastern Washington, @ 3/2 #9 Idaho, 3/4: v. #5 Idaho State)
4. Weber State 9-6 (3 games: 2/29: v. #2 Northern Colorado, 3/2: v. #8 Northern Arizona, 3/4: @ #6 Montana State)
5. Montana State 7-8 (3 games: 2/29: @ #9 Idaho, 3/2: @ #1 Eastern Washington, 3/4: v. #4 Weber State)
6. Idaho State 7-8 (3 games: 2/29: v. #8 Northern Arizona, 3/2: #2 v. Northern Colorado, 3/4: @ #3 Montana)
7. Portland State 7-9 (2 games: 3/2: @ #10 Sacramento State, 3/4: v. #9 Idaho)
8. Northern Arizona 6-9 (3 games: 2/29: @ #4 Weber State, 3/2: @ #5 Idaho State, 3/4: v. #2 Northern Colorado)
9. Idaho 5-10 (3 games: 2/29: v. #6 Montana State, 3/2: v. #3 Montana, 3/4: @ #7 Portland State)
10. Sacramento State 3-13 (2 games: 3/2: v. #7 Portland State, 3/4: v. #1 Eastern Washington)
-- Big Sky Title (win outright only and not in absurdly complex scenarios in a lot of tiebreaks)
Eastern Washington: Any two wins ensures a title. Can win with just one if they defeat Montana on Thursday, or in any scenario where they are tied with NC alone (own tie break).
Northern Colorado: Needs to be 1 game clear of Eastern and owns any tie break where they are in a tie between themselves and Montana. As such need to go 3-0 and Eastern Washington would have to go 0-3
Montana: Can win in a scenario where they go 3-0 and Eastern goes 1-2 (trust me it exists), but similar to Northern Colorado, the clearest path is an 0-3 EWU weekend and NC losing at least one game.
Weber State: Can get there mathematically, but would need a combo of 3 Eastern losses, and some other elements including at least 1 loss from Montana and Northern Colorado.
-- Top 2 Seeds:
-- Eastern Washington is a pretty much near lock for 1 and 2. Just needs 1 win over Montana to guarantee a top 2 finish.
-- Northern Colorado: 3 wins gets them the #2 regardless of how Eastern does by virtue of their tie break advantage over Montana. Can go 2-1 if Montana loses a game or in any scenario where they are tied.
-- Montana: 3 wins with any NC loss, needs to be 1 game clear with NC. Or a scenario where Montana, Weber State and NC are tied and a whole host of other complex scenarios where Montana beats Eastern while still being tied with NC and WSU.
-- Weber State: Needs a win over NC to make any of it happen and would own a tie break over NC. Best path forward is for a victory over NC, Montana loses two of their last three or doesn't beat Eastern. There are some other scenarios that require an abacus and a shaman to figure out.
If the tournament were today:
1. EWU Bye v. Idaho/SS winner
2. UNC Bye v. PSU/NAU winner
3. Montana v. #6 Idaho State (Day 3)
4. Weber State v. #5 Montana State (Day 3)
---
By record, this is Eastern's conference to lose. They have all the leverage. The last three games for Northern Colorado is by far the most daunting of any of the league leaders. All on the road at teams just behind them in the standings (Weber/ISU) and the last is in Flagstaff on the last of a 3 games in 5 days. NC has the inside track courtesy of their tie break v. UM, but they likely need a win v. WSU to seal up their top two seed. Montana has three tricky games but two of them are winnable (@ Idaho and home v. ISU) and 2-1, even with a loss to EWU might be enough to find a way to that coveted #2 seed. Weber is in a position where they can sneak by the product of having NC at home and how difficult the rest of the schedule is for Montana and NC and could slide in the back door and that game in Bozeman on Monday night be absolutely enormous. Wouldn't be at all surprised if Weber goes 3-0 they end the season as the #2 seed.
-- edited to reflect missed current tie break between MSU and ISU. MSU is now 5th, ISU is 6th. - Thanks to Saccat
