Already in - vying for a top seed
Montana; vs EWU, @PSU, vs MSU. Montana's 9-0, they're already in, win the next two and regardless the brawl they're a top 8 seed. Win the brawl and you're the 2 seed. Lose the brawl and you're probably anywhere from the 3 to the 5 seed I'd guess. Have to handle business the next two weeks though, we're seeing lots of top teams lose (even at home) to bad teams suddenly.
Don't slip up and you're a top seed as well
Montana State vs Weber, vs Davis, @UM. Cats are 7-2 and have two home games where they should handle business. If they win the brawl they're the 2 seed. If they lose it I think they might slip a bit more than Montana would, but not too bad, maybe between the 4 and 8 seed? I can't see them losing either home game but obviously one loss before would be disastrous for them, I suppose if in some crazy world they lose all 3 they'd be on the bubble or maybe out, but I just can't imagine that happening.
Thunderdome
UC Davis @ Idaho, @ Montana State, vs Sacramento. Honestly, a brutal schedule for Davis, sitting now at 6-2 thanks to the Mercer no contest game. I think they need to go 2-1 down the stretch or better to get in. If they can somehow go 3-0 they're going to be in the top 8 seeds + they'll knock out Idaho & Sac in that scenario.
Sacramento State @ PSU, vs Idaho, vs UC Davis. Sac is 5-4 and if they win out they're 8-4 and probably in. They will push Idaho off the bubble and might push Davis off it too, they could be the 3rd team in from the Big Sky if they can do that. Drop just 1 more game though and it's probably lights out for Sac.
Idaho vs UC Davis, @Sac State, vs Idaho State. Idaho is 4-5, but hear me out. If they win out they're 7-5 and will have pushed Sac off the bubble and presumably will place themselves ahead of Davis too, assuming Davis loses to Bozeman. They might be one of the last teams in, they'll probably be compared to a few 7 win MVFC teams, but a late 4 game winning streak, a probably quality win against Davis, and committee consideration that some of Idaho's losses came without their starting QB could get them in
Biting their nails
Northern Arizona vs UNC, vs CPSLO, @ Weber. NAU is 5-4 and a win out puts them at 8-4 which *should* be enough, but their best win is currently against a 4 win SUU team, they'll probably have no quality wins, no ranked wins, and if they're one of the last ones being considered against Davis - UCD has the head to head. If they're one of the last ones in against Idaho, Idaho will have wins over ISU and Davis - both of whom beat NAU. If they're the last in against Sac - Sac will have a "better" win over Davis, who beat NAU - vs NAU's win over Poly who beat Sac. If the committee just sees 8-4 and doesn't dig too deep, they'll be fine, but if they examine NAU against 1 or 2 of the Thunderdome group... NAU's probably behind them when it comes to getting in.
Montana; vs EWU, @PSU, vs MSU. Montana's 9-0, they're already in, win the next two and regardless the brawl they're a top 8 seed. Win the brawl and you're the 2 seed. Lose the brawl and you're probably anywhere from the 3 to the 5 seed I'd guess. Have to handle business the next two weeks though, we're seeing lots of top teams lose (even at home) to bad teams suddenly.
Don't slip up and you're a top seed as well
Montana State vs Weber, vs Davis, @UM. Cats are 7-2 and have two home games where they should handle business. If they win the brawl they're the 2 seed. If they lose it I think they might slip a bit more than Montana would, but not too bad, maybe between the 4 and 8 seed? I can't see them losing either home game but obviously one loss before would be disastrous for them, I suppose if in some crazy world they lose all 3 they'd be on the bubble or maybe out, but I just can't imagine that happening.
Thunderdome
UC Davis @ Idaho, @ Montana State, vs Sacramento. Honestly, a brutal schedule for Davis, sitting now at 6-2 thanks to the Mercer no contest game. I think they need to go 2-1 down the stretch or better to get in. If they can somehow go 3-0 they're going to be in the top 8 seeds + they'll knock out Idaho & Sac in that scenario.
Sacramento State @ PSU, vs Idaho, vs UC Davis. Sac is 5-4 and if they win out they're 8-4 and probably in. They will push Idaho off the bubble and might push Davis off it too, they could be the 3rd team in from the Big Sky if they can do that. Drop just 1 more game though and it's probably lights out for Sac.
Idaho vs UC Davis, @Sac State, vs Idaho State. Idaho is 4-5, but hear me out. If they win out they're 7-5 and will have pushed Sac off the bubble and presumably will place themselves ahead of Davis too, assuming Davis loses to Bozeman. They might be one of the last teams in, they'll probably be compared to a few 7 win MVFC teams, but a late 4 game winning streak, a probably quality win against Davis, and committee consideration that some of Idaho's losses came without their starting QB could get them in
Biting their nails
Northern Arizona vs UNC, vs CPSLO, @ Weber. NAU is 5-4 and a win out puts them at 8-4 which *should* be enough, but their best win is currently against a 4 win SUU team, they'll probably have no quality wins, no ranked wins, and if they're one of the last ones being considered against Davis - UCD has the head to head. If they're one of the last ones in against Idaho, Idaho will have wins over ISU and Davis - both of whom beat NAU. If they're the last in against Sac - Sac will have a "better" win over Davis, who beat NAU - vs NAU's win over Poly who beat Sac. If the committee just sees 8-4 and doesn't dig too deep, they'll be fine, but if they examine NAU against 1 or 2 of the Thunderdome group... NAU's probably behind them when it comes to getting in.
