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2006 Big Sky Conference Predictions

TrueGriz

TrueGriz

Well-known member
Here is my prediction for how the Conference will finish out.
I am using the Sagarin Ratings as basis for my prediction, so these are also how each team is ranked as of 1/1/2006. I am going to provide the Sagarin rank and the RPI rank for informational purposes. But, I do consider the Sagarin rating to be more indicative of how good a team is more than the RPI.

------------------Sagarin------RPI
1. Montana-----#92--------#125
2. PSU----------#113-------#107
3. Sac St-------#167-------#178
4. EWU---------#174-------#166
5. ISU----------#188-------#193
6. MSU---------#228-------#277
7. NAU---------#241-------#279
8. WSU--------#249--------#272

And the future of Big Sky Conference:
9. UNC---------#319-------#326- I figure the Big Sky will drop next year because this team.

And the future of Big Sky Conference if they made the right choice:
NDSU------------#165--------#162 - 3rd best in Sagarin and RPI

First conference game, Thursday, Jan. 5th versus ISU. Let's hype this one as much as we did Stanford and Milwaukee-Wisconsin and bring more than 7,213 fans to the game.

7,413 in attendance is the target the Griz need to beat if they want to break the record for attendance in the "new" Dahlberg Arena.

Okay, So how do you all predict things to go?
 
I was in Bozeman visting family and went and watched the MSU basketball tourney -- that NDSU team (which won the tournament) was impressive. They start 3 freshmen. I agree that the Big Sky made a mistake by not inviting the Bison into the conference.
 
North Dakota St. would be a great fit for the Big Sky. I think MSU and UM fans agree about that one. I imagine some of the western and southern schools didn't want to have to travel to Fargo or even Brookings, SD (South Dakota St.) and thought if they had to expand, Northern Colorado would be easier for travel purposes. But of course, this is a thread about Big Sky basketball predictions, so I'll give you mine as of right now. This is solely based on what I think.

1. Montana (probably best team in conference right now, can they hold on and win it all?)
2. Sacramento St. (good, but are they ready to take next step toward being conference elite? And can they win away from Sacramento?)
3. Montana St. (if team ever plays to potential, they'll be dangerous in the conference and could move into upper spots)
4. Portland St. (not nearly as bad as predicted, but still not top 2)
5. Idaho St. (weak schedule got some wins, but starting to show true colors as of late--could be weak away from Pocatello)
6. Eastern Washington (Stucky may power this team into tournament, but not top half)
7. Northern Arizona (they've won against inferior opponents, will be close to Eastern for last spot in tournament)
8. Weber St. (nowhere close to Weber's normal teams-Cravens may be looking for a new job after season)

Dark horse team: Portland St.
Hardest to predict: Montana St.
 
I would rather see the bison their than lets say....

Northern colorado!

Have they won a game yet? Last time ive checked they were 0-14
 
MSU to NDSU is about a 700 mile drive-that is the CLOSEST school to NDSU. People don't realize how far away they are. Try planning a trip from Flagstaff to Fargo. You gotta bus to Phoenix, then fly to Minneapolis, then fly to Fargo and both are arctic outposts in January/February and prone to ice and blizzards and closures and delays. That's an all-day endeavor at best.

Also, Altitude Tv is based in Denver and the Big Sky will get a lot more tv exposure having N. Colorado in the Conference over Fargo. There is a multitude of variables, not just who has the better basketball team this year. I am not that excited about having UNC really, but we've been over all these reasons before and all some people see is who the better team and how it affects our RPI. Do you really think what the RPI of the last-place team in the Big Sky affects what seed we'll get this year?
 
Zirg said:
MSU to NDSU is about a 700 mile drive-that is the CLOSEST school to NDSU. People don't realize how far away they are. Try planning a trip from Flagstaff to Fargo. You gotta bus to Phoenix, then fly to Minneapolis, then fly to Fargo and both are arctic outposts in January/February and prone to ice and blizzards and closures and delays. That's an all-day endeavor at best.

Also, Altitude Tv is based in Denver and the Big Sky will get a lot more tv exposure having N. Colorado in the Conference over Fargo. There is a multitude of variables, not just who has the better basketball team this year. I am not that excited about having UNC really, but we've been over all these reasons before and all some people see is who the better team and how it affects our RPI. Do you really think what the RPI of the last-place team in the Big Sky affects what seed we'll get this year?
Click to expand...

It's not just basketball, it is football. NDSU support for football would be second only to Montana.
 
Uneducated, "Griz Colored Glasses" guess;

1. Montana - If they play like they have so far they should be solid, and Strait or Criswell will be up for league MVP.

2. Sac St, talented team, but can they win on the road against PSU and Sac?

3. PSU currently the highest RPI, a solid team, but I don't see them stepping up.

4. ISU, once conference play starts they'll sink against tougher opponents
5. MSU, should play better against common opponents
6. EWU, hasn't proven much to me
7. Weber, just because
8. NAU, sorry guys.

Total guess, there you go
 
EWU has played their toughest ooc schedule in a long time if not ever. Our strength of schedule is 79 according to sagarin and 60 according to CBS Sprots' RPI. We've had 6 tournament teams on the schedule (Zags, UW, San Diego, Northridge, USC, BYU) but have only beat one. We're young, inconsitent, and probably a year away. But Stuckey is the 10th leading scorer in the nation, and has enough scoring talent around him to win some games when he's double teamed a lot or has an off night. This team has the talent to contend for a conference title and/or make a run come Big Sky tournament time.
 
So who do you predict to win??

I'm going to go with montana just because im bias for them and I love the way Krysko is putting together this team
 
Here's my prediction, explanation follows below for those who want to check out and maybe challenge my opinions :thumb: :

Montana....................12-2
Portland State............10-4
Sacramento State........9-5
Montana State.............7-7
Idaho State.................6-8
Eastern Washington.....5-9
Weber State................4-10
Northern Arizona.........3-11

I'm gonna base mine off of quality wins (adjust for BSC teams) and bad losses, with a touch of Sagarin and point ratings. I'll call quality wins up to an RPI of 150, decent wins under 200. Questionable losses above 250 and Bad losses above 300. (These numbers have to be adjusted because BSC teams aren't anywhere near what normal qualities would indicate.)

Best BSC Wins:
Montana @ Drake (109)
Weber State @ Boise State (136)
Idaho State vs Boise State (136)
Montana @ Santa Clara (145)
Portland State @ Oregon (175)

Worst BSC Losses:
Montana State @ AK-Anchorage
Weber State @ Southern Utah (317)
Idaho State vs Binghamton (310)
Northern Arizona vs Tulsa (284)
Sacramento State and Weber State @ Utah Valley (282)

TEAM-------------------Sag--RPI---QWs---DWs---QLs---BLs
Montana....................86....115.....2.........0........0.......0
Portland State...........112...106.....0.........2........0.......0
Sacramento State......149...156.....0.........1........1.......0
Montana State...........226...276.....0.........1........0.......1
Idaho State...............182...197.....2.........0........0.......1
Weber State..............248...262.....1.........1........1.......1
Eastern Washington...174...157.....0.........0........0.......0
Northern Arizona.......246...278.....0.........0........1.......0

The last 4 seasons, a BSC team has won the conference fairly easily (PSU, EWU, WSU, MSU). I think we'll continue to see the same thing with Montana this year. UM plays such a solid game on both sides of the court, the rest of the conference needs to really be on, or need the Griz to have an off night in order to beat them. Montana has already proven they can win on the road against Drake and SCU. Both of these teams are better than anyone UM will see in conference play. Have a hard time seeing the Griz losing more than 3 games in conference.

PSU has been a suprise so far, and they look like they play some solid basketball. They'll beat most BSC teams most of the time.

Sacramento State has the talent and athleticsm, but I can't see them putting a solid win streak together - too much inconsistency when you rely on individuals every night.

MSU will probably go about 0.500 because they are going to play close games almost every night, no matter who they face. You can only pull out so many wins that way.

ISU may be entering the conference on a down note, but they did beat a couple of decent teams earlier in the year, so they have the team to get some tough W's in conference.

WSU is coached well and they'll find ways to win - even if it means 50-45 points every night. Ugly, but its the only way they can compete.

EWU has Stuckey, but I think he might try to take too much on - he's not ready to carry a team yet. But he will by the end of his career. They haven't beaten anybody tough, and their stretch coming into conference might have exposed a weakness on defense.

NAU - well you beat two crappy Non D-1 teams the week before conference. They probably won't be ready for conference and I can easily see them starting 0-9 in conference.
 
Correction to my earlier post about playing 6 tournament teams. We've still played 6, but I'm replacing Northridge with Marquette, who beat UCONN in their Big East debut last night :tounge:

Here's the list of our quality losses and the team's sagarin. (I admit not a category in Mo Gym Rat's assesement, but I'm using it anyways :moon: ):

GU - 13
UW - 21
Marquette - 51 (and rising)
Southern Illinois - 55
BYU - 96
San Diego - 97 (lookout Zags, way under-rated)
USC - 117

All except the the San Diego game we're on the road.

Your point about a chink in our normally stout D is well taken though. I thought we were capable of going at least 2-1 and we lost all three, 2 in blow-outs. But to defend a little, Butorac (center - leads the Big Sky in blocks, 3rd in rebounds) missed the BYU game, and San Diego made everything. I mean everything.

More probematic is our lack of hustle. A young team that still has to learn consistency and nightly effort. Still, Eastern is much improved offensively (we shot 65% against the Torreros)

The tough schedule still makes EWU a large unknown come conference time. Two years ago we played a tough OOC schedule going 3-9 and then buried the BSC, opening up with 11 straight wins. Don't be shocked if this team finishes higher than 7th in the conference, or maybe even contends for a conference championship. :thumb:
 
I give kudos to EWU for playing a tough non-conference schedule, but in those games listed above, the average margin of defeat was more than 16 points.

Now look at PSU. They played games against Iowa State (37), Iona (42), Gonzaga (13) and Middle Tennesse (102). Their average margin of defeat was only 6 points. To me, PSU is playing solid and have better "Quality Losses", if you want to look at it that way.

By the way, I'm not convinced that San Diego is that strong of a team yet. They have three questionable losses to UCSB, San Jose State and TX-Arlington. 7 of their 10 wins are against pretty poor competition. They'll have to play one heck of a ball game to run with Gonzaga. I know they shot well in that game, but you have to attribute some of that to poor defense from the Eagles.
 
On the one hand you can't give up 97 while playing good defense, on the other, San Diego made a ton of well defended shots with someone in their face - I was there. But any team can have a hot shooting night, what I liked was there intensity and hustle - both of which the Zags have been lacking at times. They forced a lot of turnovers, went to the floor after loose balls and just seemed to have a lot of energy.

But as always, good points on the rest. I bow to your hoops knowledge :clap:
 
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