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Time for a change!

I was in favor of this 2 years ago. Could tell she wasn’t the right fit then but wanted to give her a chance. I wouldn’t mind if they made a change right now.
 
HookedonGriz said:
I was in favor of this 2 years ago. Could tell she wasn’t the right fit then but wanted to give her a chance. I wouldn’t mind if they made a change right now.
I wouldn't be opposed to that either. An 0-15 start, that's just not fair to the student athletes. They work so hard year round and to have that kind of result to start the season is brutal. There's lots of very good PAC 12 teams with more then qualified assistant coaches on those teams that are ready to get their first shot at being a head coach. Time for Haslam to make a move!
 
This one will probably be a very hard decision for Haslem with coach’s background. She’s a homegrown athlete with softball coursing through her veins. Not everyone’s cut out to be a head coach though. I wouldn’t mind seeing a change if the right hire is made. I’d feel really bad for Melanie though. This is 100% her dream job and I’d say it’s safe to say it’s not even close.
 
While the decked isn't stacked against Mel, or the Montana staff, it has been a less than an ideal beginning to the season that few programs would have navigated successfully.

The pitching
This year goes significantly better if they don't lose the a key cog of their pitching staff just days before the season started. They felt, Butterfield, who threw to a 4.5 ERA last year as a true Freshman was capable of making a significant leap just as Brock did last year and this year. Brock has been respectable, 3.82 ERA and a 1.52 whip (that could be a bit better), but has missed most of the last two series because of an injury. The hope is Brock returns quickly (maybe as soon as this weekend) but Butterfield may not be ready to go until April at the earliest (if at all).

Joseph who was good in limited action last year before suffering a season ending injury, just hasn't been as effective. Would have been reasonable to expect her to make that leap, into a more prominent role, but she's struggled with command as have Haegele and O'Brien. Regardless the staff has walked or hit over 100 players in the first three weeks of the season. For the two younger players Haegele and O'Brien it comes a bit with the territory. Teams are less free-swinging and more selective and chase a whole heck of a lot less than they do in HS. Haegele saw a ton of improvement this weekend, was really good against SDSU, but really is going to be vastly better in limited exposure (like Butterfield was last year) than being tasked with 5 or 6 inning outings.

When you are giving the opposition 100 plus free passes and compounding it with the inability to be around the plate it leads to a lot of extra bases. More stressful innings, lead to mistakes on the mound. Haegele, O'Brien and Joseph all have WHIPS above 2.25 and only O'Brien is it due in large part to hard contact. Joseph, O'Brien, and Haegele all have negative K/BB ratios, and that is a recipe for not very good outcomes at any level of softball.

Hard to see the improvement and the growth they had this weekend when you are getting boat raced because you are throwing people out of obligation. Haegele has the feel that if she can bein the zone, like she was against SDSU, she could emerge as a viable option. But they are being put into positions to not succeed, not necessarily to fail, because of injury.

This is the most chilling statistic so far, since the Cal-State Bakersfield game in which they lost 3-2, the pitching staff has allowed less than 7 runs only once (2-1 against SDSU). That has become even more acute since Brock left the UNLV game early (after 1.1 innings), they have given up 14, 7, 2, 8, 9, 7, and 12 runs. Brock has two qualified quality starts of her 4 starts, and Haegele has 1. Outside of the that, in the 15 games the pitching hasn't been good enough.

As for the offense:

In the past 10 games, the offense has only failed to score 3 runs only twice. They've scored more than 6 twice and failed to win both games. The offense is improving and it being done behind Jablonski (So) and Sweyer (Jr) who were bit players last year. Both are in the top ten in the league in slugging at this moment. Ontiveros (Jr) is slowly warming up, and if Phelps (SR), Jantzi (SO) and Klucewich (SR) approach their offensive output from last year, the offense should be good enough.

They just haven't had a lot of pop outside of Jablonski and Sweyer, and the expectation while losing McGrath pop the depth of lineup was going to lean on high OBP/BA to put balls in play. That started to happen a bit last weekend but was overshadowed by not having their two top pitchers available all weekend. They scored 3,3, and 9 runs on Saturday and Sunday which should be enough to be in ball games. Aside from maybe Weber State, each of the teams are fairly good tests of what they'd see in conference.

Conclusions

Look if things don't improve significantly, Haslam will be forced to make a change. On paper this team probably should be competitive w/ Weber, but the results haven't been there because of how bad the pitching has been. The feeling was they would have a 1-2 punch pitching wise that would be vastly more competitive this year than it was last year when it they lost a lot games late because they couldn't close out games. These weren't assumptions or even wishful thinking, but rather expectations because of how last year played out.

Does the start give an indicator for the rest of the year? No I don't think so. But it hinges on whether Brock's injury is long term and whether Butterfield can return this year or not. If neither of them return or are out into conference season, there isn't much of what we've seen that says Haegele, Joseph, or O'Brien are at this point capable of carrying the load in conference games.

Do injuries give the staff a pass? I don't think that is the assumption inside the coaches office or inside the administration. They could be a 1,000 times more competitive on the mound and offensively and if it results in a rest of the season where they aren't at .500 or above it and I think we'll have a coaching change regardless. They have to find a way to get the pitching staff more competitive to allow the offense which woke up a bit this weekend to have a chance to win games. Haegele took a huge step forward on Friday, but had control issues on Saturday/Sunday. Joseph would seem to be the key, if she can return the form that she showed flashes of pre 2022 injury, she has the stuff to be at least average in the conference. That would give them a far better shot at winning games.


What is likely to happen?

To be honest, could see a situation where they finish 2nd in conference and get to 9 or 10 wins in conference despite only winning maybe 5 non-conference games, because Butterfield returns (if she does), and Brock is healthy again, and they bring the staff back. Is that a guarantee? Absolutely not, but with how acute the injuries are to the pitching staff, it could very much be a part of the calculus.

This weekend offers some chance to get some wins. San Diego has struggled, as has Long Beach State a bit. Not sure about San Diego State, but they do play USD twice. After that it is one more pre-conference tournament in Seattle and Seattle and UNLV are the opponents and UM looked a bit over matched against UNLV at times, and Seattle has started the season really well. After that it is a couple of NAIA games at home then it is on the road for PSU and conference season.

As for conference, Montana is talent wise equal to every team in the conference minus Weber State. Could finish anywhere from 2nd to 6th, and most of it will hinge if they can get the pitching staff healthy. My hunch is they'd probably need to find a way to get to 15 wins and challenging for the conference title, to give the staff a chance at returning.
 
Set this start to the season aside then. How many 18-20 win seasons is too many? Five seasons under .500. Barely competitive in conference play. Is it hard to recruit to Montana or are we not recruiting the right athletes? Lots of players from Washington and Oregon and few to none from California, Arizona etc.
 
Some of the recruiting issues are on the staff, some of them aren't. Softball wasn't the only program to have to make concessions in how they recruited, where they recruited over the past three recruiting cycles. I know that the preference would be to spend a couple of weeks targeting and recruiting in Southern California in June as a lot of college programs do, going from ASA tournament to others in the LA and Riverside region, but a lot of that didn't happen for a lot of programs the past three years. First because of limitations in budgeting for both programs and those tournaments, but for schools doing in the recruiting as well.

As much as high school and ASA softball has improved outside of California, it is still the gold standard for softball by a long shot. Florida, Texas, and the SEC states have made great inroads, but northern state softball is still a ways behind the curve in that regard. One of the last Mary Nutter tournaments I went to a few years ago, most of the teams there had 5-10 California girls on each of their teams. Whether it was an SEC caliber school or MWC/WAC schools that were there, they had avalanches of California girls. Talent is improving elsewhere, but California gets the lion share of recruiting attention for the depth of talent they have.
 
I'll point this out as well about records and softball:

Having a winning record isn't impossible, but the margins are really small. That is mostly true of most mid to low tier softball programs and those that are cold weather softball programs. If you look at the 2022 final RPI rankings most of the mid-tier programs are in that 20-26 win area. Weber State is the exception honestly at this point from last year. No team in the BSC has a winning record (including WSU) this year. Most of the conference's 26 wins this spring are against D1 schools ranked 150 or lower or non-D1 schools. Conference can only claim a handful of victories against power conferences (1 v. Kansas, 2 wins against Oregon State) and couple of higher RPI wins (WSU against UNLV). They aren't easy to come by for BSC conference schools.

The point? Record doesn't mean a lot. What matters is conference play when it comes to the BSC. If Montana can take what its learned in these pre-season conference tournaments, and translates it into success in the conference season.

I think if the pitching gets healthy, the BSC conference is wide open for the taking this year.
 
Grizfan-24 said:
Some of the recruiting issues are on the staff, some of them aren't. Softball wasn't the only program to have to make concessions in how they recruited, where they recruited over the past three recruiting cycles. I know that the preference would be to spend a couple of weeks targeting and recruiting in Southern California in June as a lot of college programs do, going from ASA tournament to others in the LA and Riverside region, but a lot of that didn't happen for a lot of programs the past three years. First because of limitations in budgeting for both programs and those tournaments, but for schools doing in the recruiting as well.

As much as high school and ASA softball has improved outside of California, it is still the gold standard for softball by a long shot. Florida, Texas, and the SEC states have made great inroads, but northern state softball is still a ways behind the curve in that regard. One of the last Mary Nutter tournaments I went to a few years ago, most of the teams there had 5-10 California girls on each of their teams. Whether it was an SEC caliber school or MWC/WAC schools that were there, they had avalanches of California girls. Talent is improving elsewhere, but California gets the lion share of recruiting attention for the depth of talent they have.

I'm fairly new to following the game, but I definitely agree with your second para. It's insane the amount of softball these girls have the opportunity to play in CA. Even just in city rec league, there is spring and fall ball, select, and all-stars. Between that and private coaching and any travel stuff, it's literally year-round with holiday and spring breaks. If a girl starts playing at 6 or 7, by the time she is 18, she will have played in significantly more softball games, been to more practices, etc. than probably any girl from a northern state. It seems to make a difference. 16 out of the 20 on Oklahoma's roster are from CA (9), TX (4), and AZ (3). 23 out of 28 on UCLA's roster are from CA.

I'm not saying UM can get that level of recruit, but there have to be some leftovers (for lack of a better term) who could really help the Griz.
 
Surprise surprise the Griz drop 2 more and don’t look good doing it. Disaster so far, there’s no other way to spin it. Coach is in waaaaay over her head and has been for years.
 
HookedonGriz said:
Surprise surprise the Griz drop 2 more and don’t look good doing it. Disaster so far, there’s no other way to spin it. Coach is in waaaaay over her head and has been for years.

I thought the USD game might be one the Griz would be more competitive in, especially with Brock pitching. But the game was over in the first inning.
 
maroonandsilver said:
HookedonGriz said:
Surprise surprise the Griz drop 2 more and don’t look good doing it. Disaster so far, there’s no other way to spin it. Coach is in waaaaay over her head and has been for years.

I thought the USD game might be one the Griz would be more competitive in, especially with Brock pitching. But the game was over in the first inning.

Is Brock pitching hurt now?
 
Ugh, this is gross. We have good players; what can the staff do to salvage this thing?
 
I guess my maroon tinted glasses aren’t shaded nearly as darkly as some of yours. What is see is a team hitting barely over .200 with an era over 8. That’s poor by anyone’s standards. How will this team win 9-10 conference games? Last season’s team won six conference games and three of those were against Southern Utah. A team that finished 3-40. Let’s just say, I’m not optimistic.
 
OMGriz9501 said:
I guess my maroon tinted glasses aren’t shaded nearly as darkly as some of yours. What is see is a team hitting barely over .200 with an era over 8. That’s poor by anyone’s standards. How will this team win 9-10 conference games? Last season’s team won six conference games and three of those were against Southern Utah. A team that finished 3-40. Let’s just say, I’m not optimistic.

Oh I’m definitely not saying they’ll win the con. I’m fairly positive they won’t. For one, they’ve shown zero indication that they’ll be able to play with Weber and probably not Sac either, even though they get them both in Missoula. Right now I’d be impressed if they win 4-5 con season games. The con tourney will be in Weber and I’m pretty sure no one is beating Weber in Ogden. If this season doesn’t get Melanie fired I’d be shocked and I’ve had a lot of emotional hope Melanie does well cus I know what this job means to her but it’s definitely not looking good for her to stay on after this year.
 
Griz lose again today, 16-0 to San Diego State in another run-rule game. What a disaster this tourney was for the Griz. They scored 4 runs over the 5 games, while giving up 54!
 
The only way anything gets done is to initiate change. This staff is in WAY over their heads. This is the most disappointing start I could even imagine. They are getting destroyed by everyone. I have emailed Haslam about my concerns and I would strongly recommend anyone who follows the program do the same…..unless you enjoy the absolute demise of the program:

[email protected]
 
HookedonGriz said:
The only way anything gets done is to initiate change. This staff is in WAY over their heads. This is the most disappointing start I could even imagine. They are getting destroyed by everyone. I have emailed Haslam about my concerns and I would strongly recommend anyone who follows the program do the same…..unless you enjoy the absolute demise of the program:

[email protected]

Hey hooked, just curious if Haslem has responded to you. I wouldn’t expect him to but I hope he’s listening. I’m guessing he knows he needs to make the call but I’m also guessing this will probably be the tuffest decision he’s had to make here from an emotional stand point. It’s business though and he’s gotta know the right thing to do. It’s obvious they’ve been in a steady decline since Melanie has taken over.
 
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