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Quality of the Big Sky Conference

GrizBall

Well-known member
From time to time here I see comments about the quality of the conference compared to the past. I think these comments are sometimes misguided. The KenPom conference rank is currently #18 (by the slightest of margins over the #19 Southern Conference).


The previous best ranks since the 2009-2010 season (as far as KenPom goes back):


20-21 (18)
19-20 (17)
17-18 (17)
09-10 (17)


And while there may not be a super-team (sorry EWU, I’ll get to that in a moment), the bottom is drastically improved. Idaho is currently ranked the worst at #281. Last year for example there were four teams #317 or lower. In 18-19, there were three teams #304 or lower. This could be the first year without a #300 or lower team (sort of my reverse Mendoza Line). In most years there are at least two and often in the 340-350 range (I am a fan of relegation . . . Good bye Idaho and Idaho State, welcome to the Big Sky MSU - Billings and St. Martins!)


Is Idaho with Moffitt and Jones an easy win? Do you really want to face UNC’s big 3 of Knecht, Kountz and Johnson II that is rounding into form?


Despite EWU’s brilliant season to date, they are tracking as a likely 15-seed. MSU was a 14-seed last year.


So the question is which would you prefer? A conference with a team capable of winning a tournament game but with 3-to-4 non competitive teams? Or a conference without a 12-13 seed but where you are basically getting competitive games every night?
 
GrizBall said:
From time to time here I see comments about the quality of the conference compared to the past. I think these comments are sometimes misguided. The KenPom conference rank is currently #18 (by the slightest of margins over the #19 Southern Conference).


The previous best ranks since the 2009-2010 season (as far as KenPom goes back):


20-21 (18)
19-20 (17)
17-18 (17)
09-10 (17)


And while there may not be a super-team (sorry EWU, I’ll get to that in a moment), the bottom is drastically improved. Idaho is currently ranked the worst at #281. Last year for example there were four teams #317 or lower. In 18-19, there were three teams #304 or lower. This could be the first year without a #300 or lower team (sort of my reverse Mendoza Line). In most years there are at least two and often in the 340-350 range (I am a fan of relegation . . . Good bye Idaho and Idaho State, welcome to the Big Sky MSU - Billings and St. Martins!)


Is Idaho with Moffitt and Jones an easy win? Do you really want to face UNC’s big 3 of Knecht, Kountz and Johnson II that is rounding into form?


Despite EWU’s brilliant season to date, they are tracking as a likely 15-seed. MSU was a 14-seed last year.


So the question is which would you prefer? A conference with a team capable of winning a tournament game but with 3-to-4 non competitive teams? Or a conference without a 12-13 seed but where you are basically getting competitive games every night?
While I don't have an opinion regarding a better conference match for Montana, your observations about the Big Sky rankings are spot on. The Sagarin Rankings has the Big Sky at #19 and -- though Haslametrics doesn't provide a conference rating system -- it consistently ranks ALL Big Sky schools higher than either KenPom or Sagarin. Not high enough for a second team to advance though (I believe). Frankly, the Big Sky has been a blast to watch this season in both men's and women's action. A lot of parity. Very few games a "sure thing." The action could get pretty wild in both men's and women's games... especially in the post-season tourneys.
 
grizzlyjournal said:
...
While I don't have an opinion regarding a better conference match for Montana, your observations about the Big Sky rankings are spot on. The Sagarin Rankings has the Big Sky at #19 and -- though Haslametrics doesn't provide a conference rating system -- it consistently ranks ALL Big Sky schools higher than either KenPom or Sagarin. Not high enough for a second team to advance though (I believe). Frankly, the Big Sky has been a blast to watch this season in both men's and women's action. A lot of parity. Very few games a "sure thing." The action could get pretty wild in both men's and women's games... especially in the post-season tourneys.
Absolutely looking forward to the post-season!

All the ranking services I've looked at rank the Big Sky in the 19-22 range, which pretty well agrees with the average BPI for the conference. Sadly, that is not even close to allowing a second team to get an at-large bid to the Big Dance. The only second chance will for the regular season champ – probably EWU, but some key games remain – to get bounced and go to the NIT.
 
If EWU wins out (I don’t think they will) they’d be riding a 23 game win streak into the NCAA tourney….they won’t get a 15/16 seed
 
marceagfan5 said:
If EWU wins out (I don’t think they will) they’d be riding a 23 game win streak into the NCAA tourney….they won’t get a 15/16 seed

Even with such a streak, their best non-conference win is UC-Davis and the best they could do in-conference would be 3 wins against Montana State (which would actually have the perverse effect of dropping MSU in any rankings systems).

It sucks because they just keep rolling, but such is life in the Big Sky.
 
MissoulaMarinerFan said:
marceagfan5 said:
If EWU wins out (I don’t think they will) they’d be riding a 23 game win streak into the NCAA tourney….they won’t get a 15/16 seed
You're right - they'd get a 13/14. :mrgreen:

I'd bet a 12...maybe a 13.
 
Parity in the Big Sky?

There’s been some talk on here about “parity” in the Big Sky … perhaps a bit weird given the EWU record. But aside from that, we may well be in a situation where anybody can win on any given night. There certainly have been some surprises so far. So, I wondered how the BSC compared to other conferences in the same part of the “pack” – the 19-21 range. Comparing their overall rankings to those for the Big Sky, I came up with four conferences: Big West (conference BPI -1.918), Metro Atlantic (-2.318), Big South (-2.810), and America East (-2.978). The average BPI value for the Big Sky is -2.490 … right in the middle.

Of these five conferences, the Metro Atlantic is the only one that has a team in the top-60 in BPI strength – Iona. (The next closest is at #92.) With the exception of the Big West, these conferences have only three or four teams with plus BPI values, and the Big Sky has only two (MSU and EWU). The Big West has six team with plus BPI values, but those are offset by four teams that are below -7.

A quick way to think about parity (or lack thereof) is to note the spread between the highest and lowest. Thus, the BSC ranges from +3.5 down to -6.0, for a spread of 9.5 units. That is by far the smallest spread among these five conferences (the next up is 12.0). That number thus does support the notion of parity in the Big Sky.

However, that approach probably gives too much weight to anomalies, like Iona’s high value and the wretched -10.9 for pathetic Albany. So, to even that out, I calculated the spreads between the top three and the bottom three teams. The Big Sky came out at 8.03 (+1.63 for the top, -5.4 for the bottom). The four other conferences came in at 11.2 (Big West), 9.2 (MAAC), 9.5 (Big South) and 11.2 (America East). Again, the numbers say that teams in the Big Sky are more evenly matched that in these other middle-of-the-pack conferences.
 
Maybe a more pervasive problem… and did anyone else post this article here?

https://www.idahostatejournal.com/sports/the-numbers-dont-lie-big-sky-basketball-is-in-trouble/article_1d177c40-a345-11ed-a953-0fdf296d5896.html

About the article you expect from one POV in Poky, but there’s reasons PSU and UI both didn’t end up with 5,000-seat arenas. And I kind of chuckle at the notion that Idaho State would go bigger than what they already have (though I can see club seats being a thing).
 
Pounder said:
Maybe a more pervasive problem… and did anyone else post this article here?

https://www.idahostatejournal.com/sports/the-numbers-dont-lie-big-sky-basketball-is-in-trouble/article_1d177c40-a345-11ed-a953-0fdf296d5896.html

About the article you expect from one POV in Poky, but there’s reasons PSU and UI both didn’t end up with 5,000-seat arenas. And I kind of chuckle at the notion that Idaho State would go bigger than what they already have (though I can see club seats being a thing).

Thanks for posting this, Pounder. A lot to consider here, with connections to similar challenges facing every school in the Big Sky... especially if you total & calculate average per-event gate for all sports (football, soccer, men's & women's hoops, volleyball and softball).
 
No star power.

No Damian Lillard (the only current Big Sky player in the NBA to my knowledge.)

No Rodney Stuckey, Joel Bolomboy or Will Cherry, and going w-a-y back, no Gus Johnson, Micheal Ray Richardson, Freeman Williams, Steve Hayes, Harold Arcenoux, Willie Sojourner, Chris Childs
.
And now it's likely that any player with star power will turn pro early or enter the transfer portal, a la Tanner Groves.

Maybe we've got one coming in, Money Williams. Kid be good.

But genuine starr power? That's a longshot. And a rarity in the Big Sky.
 
Should also be mentioned EWU is not even as close to as good as they have “looked” the past few months. Got lucky to edge out a couple of close wins, just lost to Idaho State. Lost to a Hawaii team that is 5th in the big west by 20 points. They will not win the conference tournament. Would rather play them in the conference tourney than the Cats. The analysts and committee know. Have them projected as a low 14/ high 15 and will drop now. Not even close to a 13 line
 
UMFan12 said:
Should also be mentioned EWU is not even as close to as good as they have “looked” the past few months. Got lucky to edge out a couple of close wins, just lost to Idaho State. Lost to a Hawaii team that is 5th in the big west by 20 points. They will not win the conference tournament. Would rather play them in the conference tourney than the Cats. The analysts and committee know. Have them projected as a low 14/ high 15 and will drop now. Not even close to a 13 line.
No Big Sky can hope to get a 13 seed ... the numbers are just too weak across the whole conference. About the only (semi)-good news is that there a enough crappier teams among the really weak one-bid conferences to fill the 16-seed slots. I think the best the BSC can hope for is a #14, and a #15 would not shock me.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
UMFan12 said:
Should also be mentioned EWU is not even as close to as good as they have “looked” the past few months. Got lucky to edge out a couple of close wins, just lost to Idaho State. Lost to a Hawaii team that is 5th in the big west by 20 points. They will not win the conference tournament. Would rather play them in the conference tourney than the Cats. The analysts and committee know. Have them projected as a low 14/ high 15 and will drop now. Not even close to a 13 line.
No Big Sky can hope to get a 13 seed ... the numbers are just too weak across the whole conference. About the only (semi)-good news is that there a enough crappier teams among the really weak one-bid conferences to fill the 16-seed slots. I think the best the BSC can hope for is a #14, and a #15 would not shock me.
ORU is about to nab a 12/13 out of the Summit so it’s absolutely possible. But, have to both go unbeaten in league play, and only have understandable non con losses(4-5 losses tops).Not Hawaii by 20
 
UMFan12 said:
Should also be mentioned EWU is not even as close to as good as they have “looked” the past few months. Got lucky to edge out a couple of close wins, just lost to Idaho State. Lost to a Hawaii team that is 5th in the big west by 20 points. They will not win the conference tournament. Would rather play them in the conference tourney than the Cats. The analysts and committee know. Have them projected as a low 14/ high 15 and will drop now. Not even close to a 13 line

Eastern is a very good team, they lose 1 game on a difficult road trip and everyone now counts them out, lol. Remember they won IN Missoula, IN Ogden, and IN Bozeman. They ran off 18 wins in a row, that's damn impressive, regardless of the conference. You can't look at their non-conference record, EWU brought in several transfers, including 3 of their top 6 players, it takes time for a team like that to gel...

Eastern is an absolute matchup nightmare as every starter is 6'6+ and they shoot it well.

They are not the clear favorites to win the tourney, but they are the favorites...

Glad to see the Griz are playing better, I'd expect an EWU/UM semifinal matchup in Boise and it should be a good one!
 
marceagfan5 said:
UMFan12 said:
Should also be mentioned EWU is not even as close to as good as they have “looked” the past few months. Got lucky to edge out a couple of close wins, just lost to Idaho State. Lost to a Hawaii team that is 5th in the big west by 20 points. They will not win the conference tournament. Would rather play them in the conference tourney than the Cats. The analysts and committee know. Have them projected as a low 14/ high 15 and will drop now. Not even close to a 13 line

Eastern is a very good team, they lose 1 game on a difficult road trip and everyone now counts them out, lol. Remember they won IN Missoula, IN Ogden, and IN Bozeman. They ran off 18 wins in a row, that's damn impressive, regardless of the conference. You can't look at their non-conference record, EWU brought in several transfers, including 3 of their top 6 players, it takes time for a team like that to gel...

Eastern is an absolute matchup nightmare as every starter is 6'6+ and they shoot it well.

They are not the clear favorites to win the tourney, but they are the favorites...

Glad to see the Griz are playing better, I'd expect an EWU/UM semifinal matchup in Boise and it should be a good one!

I would agree. They are a very good team and they are the favorite. I think they could be one of those teams that would scare a 2 or 3 seed for sure.
 
marceagfan5 said:
UMFan12 said:
Should also be mentioned EWU is not even as close to as good as they have “looked” the past few months. Got lucky to edge out a couple of close wins, just lost to Idaho State. Lost to a Hawaii team that is 5th in the big west by 20 points. They will not win the conference tournament. Would rather play them in the conference tourney than the Cats. The analysts and committee know. Have them projected as a low 14/ high 15 and will drop now. Not even close to a 13 line

Eastern is a very good team, they lose 1 game on a difficult road trip and everyone now counts them out, lol. Remember they won IN Missoula, IN Ogden, and IN Bozeman. They ran off 18 wins in a row, that's damn impressive, regardless of the conference. You can't look at their non-conference record, EWU brought in several transfers, including 3 of their top 6 players, it takes time for a team like that to gel...

Eastern is an absolute matchup nightmare as every starter is 6'6+ and they shoot it well.

They are not the clear favorites to win the tourney, but they are the favorites...

Glad to see the Griz are playing better, I'd expect an EWU/UM semifinal matchup in Boise and it should be a good one!

EWU maybe the best of a mediocre BSC, but I think they could lose to anyone just as easily as win. They have definitely been the most consistent in a good way, during conference play.
 
UncleRico said:
marceagfan5 said:
Eastern is a very good team, they lose 1 game on a difficult road trip and everyone now counts them out, lol. Remember they won IN Missoula, IN Ogden, and IN Bozeman. They ran off 18 wins in a row, that's damn impressive, regardless of the conference. You can't look at their non-conference record, EWU brought in several transfers, including 3 of their top 6 players, it takes time for a team like that to gel...

Eastern is an absolute matchup nightmare as every starter is 6'6+ and they shoot it well.

They are not the clear favorites to win the tourney, but they are the favorites...

Glad to see the Griz are playing better, I'd expect an EWU/UM semifinal matchup in Boise and it should be a good one!

I would agree. They are a very good team and they are the favorite. I think they could be one of those teams that would scare a 2 or 3 seed for sure.

I don't think any BSC school can scare a 2 or 3 seed.
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
UncleRico said:
I would agree. They are a very good team and they are the favorite. I think they could be one of those teams that would scare a 2 or 3 seed for sure.

I don't think any BSC school can scare a 2 or 3 seed.
If they can shoot the 3 the fear is always there in NCAA tourney. Or they could beat by 30. That is why the NCAA tourney is great.
 
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