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Where to go from here?

Sport

Well-known member
I’ve been struggling trying to figure out why the Grizzlies have been mired in mediocrity these last couple of seasons. I have my own ideas and the most rationale theory I can come up with is player development. That may be an easy cop out but if you look at the last couple of years the only current Griz player who has progressed from a skills perspective is Josh Bannon. If you look at our current roster Brandon Whitney still is not a threat from deep. Vasquez was supposed to be the next coming but his minutes are limited and his shot lacks confidence. Mac Anderson, and I love his fight and attitude but he commits a foul for every 4 minutes he’s on the floor. Lionel Martin seems to disappear for long stretches and has not developed into the shot maker he was touted to be.
The BSC does not have the luxury of getting 4 or 5 star recruits. Therefore we have to look for young players who have the potential to get better, players that can be coached up. Unfortunately it’s not an exact science but our current coaching staff is not able to recognize those raw recruits who have the potential to take it to the next level.

There is one freshman on our roster I think may be able to develop into an outstanding player and that’s Jaxon Nap. But unless he gets playing time and is really coached up I could see him leaving after next year. If we lose or even split these next two games I would be in favor of getting him 30 minutes a game. Baptism under fire so to speak. The only way to get better is in actual game speed and not scrimmage time.
 
Sport said:
I’ve been struggling trying to figure out why the Grizzlies have been mired in mediocrity these last couple of seasons. I have my own ideas and the most rationale theory I can come up with is player development. That may be an easy cop out but if you look at the last couple of years the only current Griz player who has progressed from a skills perspective is Josh Bannon. If you look at our current roster Brandon Whitney still is not a threat from deep. Vasquez was supposed to be the next coming but his minutes are limited and his shot lacks confidence. Mac Anderson, and I love his fight and attitude but he commits a foul for every 4 minutes he’s on the floor. Lionel Martin seems to disappear for long stretches and has not developed into the shot maker he was touted to be.
The BSC does not have the luxury of getting 4 or 5 star recruits. Therefore we have to look for young players who have the potential to get better, players that can be coached up. Unfortunately it’s not an exact science but our current coaching staff is not able to recognize those raw recruits who have the potential to take it to the next level.

There is one freshman on our roster I think may be able to develop into an outstanding player and that’s Jaxon Nap. But unless he gets playing time and is really coached up I could see him leaving after next year. If we lose or even split these next two games I would be in favor of getting him 30 minutes a game. Baptism under fire so to speak. The only way to get better is in actual game speed and not scrimmage time.

This. Nap will be a star for the Griz.
 
I believe there is one path to success at the Big Sky level and that is the portal recruiting of D-1 players.

Look at how our 13 scholarships are being deployed this year:

3 Freshman that don’t suit up
1 non-D1 transfer that never plays
1 non-D1 transfer that doesn’t move the needle
1 Freshman that doesn’t move the needle but shows potential.

Almost half of the scholarships (6/13) are not producing. 2/2 D-1 transfers are producing at a very high level. Look at recent all-conference teams. Very few HS recruits. As Nuanez recently pointed out, go down the conference stat leaders. Few if any HS recruits.

The other thing is that for HS recruits, the risk of them not being D-1 players is higher, you likely have to wait some time for them to be productive and then you have sit and pray that once they become good they don’t leave.

Also, the NCAA just passed a rule that I read as only allowing 1 free transfer regardless of grad status. This, plus number of kids that have the 5th Covid year is dwindling, so a transfer likely would not be able leave for a 3rd school.

HS recruiting is not the path forward.
 
GrizBall said:
I believe there is one path to success at the Big Sky level and that is the portal recruiting of D-1 players.

Look at how our 13 scholarships are being deployed this year:

3 Freshman that don’t suit up
1 non-D1 transfer that never plays
1 non-D1 transfer that doesn’t move the needle
1 Freshman that doesn’t move the needle but shows potential.

Almost half of the scholarships (6/13) are not producing. 2/2 D-1 transfers are producing at a very high level. Look at recent all-conference teams. Very few HS recruits. As Nuanez recently pointed out, go down the conference stat leaders. Few if any HS recruits.

The other thing is that for HS recruits, the risk of them not being D-1 players is higher, you likely have to wait some time for them to be productive and then you have sit and pray that once they become good they don’t leave.

Also, the NCAA just passed a rule that I read as only allowing 1 free transfer regardless of grad status. This, plus number of kids that have the 5th Covid year is dwindling, so a transfer likely would not be able leave for a 3rd school.

HS recruiting is not the path forward.

I think it can be sometimes easy to forget the unbelievable success we've had recruiting at the high school level over the past decade. Our best players outside Ahmad & Breunig have been high school guys. Cherry, Kareem, Oguine, Sayeed, Bannan. We've had some HUGE misses in the portal (Tony Miller, Steadman, Darius Henderson, Satterwhite, Gaskin, Yagi, Blakney, & probably Oke & Brown) There's definitely a place for the portal and but I don't think we completely abandon ship and give up on high school guys. Eastern for example has done a great job of identifying and developing high school players.

Do think its time to re-evaluate our process for identifying talent & off-season development.
 
It is really hard for me to understand why Oke thus far does not seem to have worked out. He was the RMAC defensive player of the year in both the 2020-2021 season and 2021-2022 season. Additionally, he was first team all RMAC both seasons and named to the first team D2CCA All-South Central Region first team for the 2021-2022 season. This is NCAA D2 basketball, not junior college. It sure looked like a great recruiting pick up.
 
Little Bear brings up some good points. The caveat to all recruiting is that it comes with risks. This is true whether you are a 5-star or a no-star. Kids get homesick, they don’t understand the amount of work it takes to be successful on and off the court, they get lost in the allure of women and partying, they like the staff that recruited them, don’t like the way that staff coaches/plays them, injuries, etc.


A few thoughts:

1. Yes, I would agree that you don’t completely give up on HS recruiting, but you also don’t over-index on them. 7 scholarships between this year’s freshman class and next year’s is too many in my opinion. 1-2 HS kids a year is plenty. If none of the current freshman transfer, next year 6/13 scholarships have never played a D-1 minute and a 7th (Nap) up to this point has played sparingly. Coupled with Brown and Oke that’s 9/13 scholarships. That just doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. I would be considering having an incoming freshman or 2 go to a prep school and still honor their scholarship the following year.


2. Most of the HS guys you mention were in what I would consider the pre-portal days. Things have drastically changed even from Sayeed’s junior and senior years. If you look at the most recent relevant classes, only 1/3 of the DCH/Owens/Vazquez class remains and 2/3 of the Beasley/Whitney/Bannan remains. That’s 50%. Would all of the guys you mentioned have stayed their entire careers at Montana if they played today? Maybe. But I think we can all agree that it would be much more of the exception than the rule in today’s environment.


3. EWU also has a bunch of transfers and some of the HS success has been luck (there is not one person outside of the Groves family that thought the Groves boys would remotely have the success they did. Pretty sure there wasn’t a recruiting battle for Venters) and geography (Groves Bros and Venters from relatively close to Cheney). But they also have had some foreign success and a few Cali kids so your point is well taken, but EWU is also an outlier in this respect.

4. The transfers you mention with the exception of Henderson didn’t fail because they lacked talent. I believe Henderson was always just a project they took a swing on because of size (which I totally endorse. Size is at a premium in the Big Sky). Blakney was ravaged by injuries. But you saw what he could at the D-1 level. Steadman was a solid 10/5 before quitting, was 8/4 with UMass and was invited to workout for some NBA teams. Gaskin for obvious reasons (but the buzz around his talent and athleticism was always pretty loud). Again there are always risks, but I would always err on the side of proven D-1 talent.

At the Big Sky level being successful primarily with HS recruits can be done, but in this day and age, it’s clearly the outlier. If I were a Big Sky coach, I wouldn’t want to be betting my career on outliers.
 
GrizBall said:
Little Bear brings up some good points. The caveat to all recruiting is that it comes with risks. This is true whether you are a 5-star or a no-star. Kids get homesick, they don’t understand the amount of work it takes to be successful on and off the court, they get lost in the allure of women and partying, they like the staff that recruited them, don’t like the way that staff coaches/plays them, injuries, etc.


A few thoughts:

1. Yes, I would agree that you don’t completely give up on HS recruiting, but you also don’t over-index on them. 7 scholarships between this year’s freshman class and next year’s is too many in my opinion. 1-2 HS kids a year is plenty. If none of the current freshman transfer, next year 6/13 scholarships have never played a D-1 minute and a 7th (Nap) up to this point has played sparingly. Coupled with Brown and Oke that’s 9/13 scholarships. That just doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. I would be considering having an incoming freshman or 2 go to a prep school and still honor their scholarship the following year.


2. Most of the HS guys you mention were in what I would consider the pre-portal days. Things have drastically changed even from Sayeed’s junior and senior years. If you look at the most recent relevant classes, only 1/3 of the DCH/Owens/Vazquez class remains and 2/3 of the Beasley/Whitney/Bannan remains. That’s 50%. Would all of the guys you mentioned have stayed their entire careers at Montana if they played today? Maybe. But I think we can all agree that it would be much more of the exception than the rule in today’s environment.


3. EWU also has a bunch of transfers and some of the HS success has been luck (there is not one person outside of the Groves family that thought the Groves boys would remotely have the success they did. Pretty sure there wasn’t a recruiting battle for Venters) and geography (Groves Bros and Venters from relatively close to Cheney). But they also have had some foreign success and a few Cali kids so your point is well taken, but EWU is also an outlier in this respect.

4. The transfers you mention with the exception of Henderson didn’t fail because they lacked talent. I believe Henderson was always just a project they took a swing on because of size (which I totally endorse. Size is at a premium in the Big Sky). Blakney was ravaged by injuries. But you saw what he could at the D-1 level. Steadman was a solid 10/5 before quitting, was 8/4 with UMass and was invited to workout for some NBA teams. Gaskin for obvious reasons (but the buzz around his talent and athleticism was always pretty loud). Again there are always risks, but I would always err on the side of proven D-1 talent.

At the Big Sky level being successful primarily with HS recruits can be done, but in this day and age, it’s clearly the outlier. If I were a Big Sky coach, I wouldn’t want to be betting my career on outliers.

Good Points - in response to your numbered paragraphs:

1. We'll definitely lose a few guys. Could see Oke, Brown, and probably a freshman bouncing. However you spin it we'll definitely be bringing in players out of the portal. I don't think we'll be as bottom heavy as we look now.

2. Definitely different times. Probably would have lost some of them...but my point was that our high school recruits have been our best players in the last decade, more so than any transfer brought in outside of Ahmad and Breunig...and we've brought in a lot of transfers.

3. EWU def struck gold with the Groves brothers but Shauntay and the new guy have done an outstanding job recruiting and developing high school talent. Tyler Robertson (who's killing it at Portland), Jacob Davison, Jack Perry, Mason Peatling, Kim Aiken, and Michael Meadows were all high school guys from that Big Sky championship team. Now they have Venters, Price - last years Freshman POY and Casey Jones who are all high school guys.

4. Montana's best portal success has been recruiting drop downs. Ahmad, Breunig, Kendal, Dorsey, Thomas. Jamar & Moody are exceptions, but I think we get in trouble recruiting from lower divisions or good players from bad teams.

Recruiting seems tougher than ever, and harder than ever to keep guys on campus. will be interesting to see how the staff adjusts this offseason.
 
LittleBear said:
GrizBall said:
Little Bear brings up some good points. The caveat to all recruiting is that it comes with risks. This is true whether you are a 5-star or a no-star. Kids get homesick, they don’t understand the amount of work it takes to be successful on and off the court, they get lost in the allure of women and partying, they like the staff that recruited them, don’t like the way that staff coaches/plays them, injuries, etc.


A few thoughts:

1. Yes, I would agree that you don’t completely give up on HS recruiting, but you also don’t over-index on them. 7 scholarships between this year’s freshman class and next year’s is too many in my opinion. 1-2 HS kids a year is plenty. If none of the current freshman transfer, next year 6/13 scholarships have never played a D-1 minute and a 7th (Nap) up to this point has played sparingly. Coupled with Brown and Oke that’s 9/13 scholarships. That just doesn’t seem like a recipe for success. I would be considering having an incoming freshman or 2 go to a prep school and still honor their scholarship the following year.


2. Most of the HS guys you mention were in what I would consider the pre-portal days. Things have drastically changed even from Sayeed’s junior and senior years. If you look at the most recent relevant classes, only 1/3 of the DCH/Owens/Vazquez class remains and 2/3 of the Beasley/Whitney/Bannan remains. That’s 50%. Would all of the guys you mentioned have stayed their entire careers at Montana if they played today? Maybe. But I think we can all agree that it would be much more of the exception than the rule in today’s environment.


3. EWU also has a bunch of transfers and some of the HS success has been luck (there is not one person outside of the Groves family that thought the Groves boys would remotely have the success they did. Pretty sure there wasn’t a recruiting battle for Venters) and geography (Groves Bros and Venters from relatively close to Cheney). But they also have had some foreign success and a few Cali kids so your point is well taken, but EWU is also an outlier in this respect.

4. The transfers you mention with the exception of Henderson didn’t fail because they lacked talent. I believe Henderson was always just a project they took a swing on because of size (which I totally endorse. Size is at a premium in the Big Sky). Blakney was ravaged by injuries. But you saw what he could at the D-1 level. Steadman was a solid 10/5 before quitting, was 8/4 with UMass and was invited to workout for some NBA teams. Gaskin for obvious reasons (but the buzz around his talent and athleticism was always pretty loud). Again there are always risks, but I would always err on the side of proven D-1 talent.

At the Big Sky level being successful primarily with HS recruits can be done, but in this day and age, it’s clearly the outlier. If I were a Big Sky coach, I wouldn’t want to be betting my career on outliers.

Good Points - in response to your numbered paragraphs:

1. We'll definitely lose a few guys. Could see Oke, Brown, and probably a freshman bouncing. However you spin it we'll definitely be bringing in players out of the portal. I don't think we'll be as bottom heavy as we look now.

2. Definitely different times. Probably would have lost some of them...but my point was that our high school recruits have been our best players in the last decade, more so than any transfer brought in outside of Ahmad and Breunig...and we've brought in a lot of transfers.

3. EWU def struck gold with the Groves brothers but Shauntay and the new guy have done an outstanding job recruiting and developing high school talent. Tyler Robertson (who's killing it at Portland), Jacob Davison, Jack Perry, Mason Peatling, Kim Aiken, and Michael Meadows were all high school guys from that Big Sky championship team. Now they have Venters, Price - last years Freshman POY and Casey Jones who are all high school guys.

4. Montana's best portal success has been recruiting drop downs. Ahmad, Breunig, Kendal, Dorsey, Thomas. Jamar & Moody are exceptions, but I think we get in trouble recruiting from lower divisions or good players from bad teams.

Recruiting seems tougher than ever, and harder than ever to keep guys on campus. will be interesting to see how the staff adjusts this offseason.

Very good analysis!

I would just add that by my count they are over signed by 1 for next year, so it would take at least 2 guys with eligibility departing before they could even look for a single portal upgrade.
 
one factor no one even mentions is the loyalty of fans. Sure, games are streamed but UM is not setting attendance records and no school in the Big Sky really does. Basketball is being played at a higher level in some places but in the Big Sky it is more of an after thought. There is a post on egriz that really described a lot of people, myself included, that says basically it has become hard to watch. In truth, I always liked the Big Sky that gave a small town player, male or female, a chance to shine among the urban and population centers. With the portal, schools are saying that doesn't matter. Just like politics anything is ok as long as you win, these days....
 
All good points. Eastern is loaded with transfers despite having some successful high school guys. Let's look at the cats starting 5 for example:

Great Osobor - International guy but came from a JUCO
Darius Brown- Transfer from Cal State Northridge
Jubrile Belo- Also an international guy, but also came from a JUCO
Raequan Battle- Transfer from Washington
Caleb Fuller Transfer from UC Davis

Their entire starting 5 is transfers and their top rotational man Robert Ford is also a transfer from Idaho State. They also have a direct pipeline to these top players out of England because their assistant coach Chris Haslam is from England. Definitely helps to have a guy like that on staff. It's a fair point for sure!
 
Griz til I die said:
All good points. Eastern is loaded with transfers despite having some successful high school guys. Let's look at the cats starting 5 for example:

Great Osobor - International guy but came from a JUCO
Darius Brown- Transfer from Cal State Northridge
Jubrile Belo- Also an international guy, but also came from a JUCO
Raequan Battle- Transfer from Washington
Caleb Fuller Transfer from UC Davis

Their entire starting 5 is transfers and their top rotational man Robert Ford is also a transfer from Idaho State. They also have a direct pipeline to these top players out of England because their assistant coach Chris Haslam is from England. Definitely helps to have a guy like that on staff. It's a fair point for sure!

And last year it was Belo (Transfer), Mohamed (Transfer), Bishop (Transfer), Adamu (Transfer - also from England). Patterson was from HS. Battle was 6th man of the Year and a transfer as stated above.
 
LittleBear said:
3. EWU def struck gold with the Groves brothers but Shauntay and the new guy have done an outstanding job recruiting and developing high school talent. Tyler Robertson (who's killing it at Portland), Jacob Davison, Jack Perry, Mason Peatling, Kim Aiken, and Michael Meadows were all high school guys from that Big Sky championship team. Now they have Venters, Price - last years Freshman POY and Casey Jones who are all high school guys.

Robertson, Perry, and Peatling are all from Australia. Legans has always done a solid job with foreign recruits. As for Venters, I believe his only other D1 offer was Idaho.
 
HelenaHandBasket said:
LittleBear said:
3. EWU def struck gold with the Groves brothers but Shauntay and the new guy have done an outstanding job recruiting and developing high school talent. Tyler Robertson (who's killing it at Portland), Jacob Davison, Jack Perry, Mason Peatling, Kim Aiken, and Michael Meadows were all high school guys from that Big Sky championship team. Now they have Venters, Price - last years Freshman POY and Casey Jones who are all high school guys.

Robertson, Perry, and Peatling are all from Australia. Legans has always done a solid job with foreign recruits. As for Venters, I believe his only other D1 offer was Idaho.

True. high school recruits from Aus. Ethan Price - Freshman POY - is from England. Aiken, Davison, & Meadows were from CA. And they find small town / underrated WA recruits like Venters, Casey Jones, & the Groves brothers.

They do a great job of identifying talent & developing guys when they get to campus, & find nice pieces in the portal that can play multiple positions and shoot
 
I'm a bit more out of the loop than in some years with HS recruiting, but as a few people have told me, this last summer felt pretty normal. Part of that was a return to normal recruiting patterns, but as the covid surplus ends of players in D1 hoops, you are going to see a lot of schools needing Class of 24 and 25 talent. If coaches are smart, especially coaches at the mid-major level can make some hay with some HS kids who aren't getting as much attention who might normally be Group of 5/upper mid-major kids. I really feel like Money Williams is that kid for the Griz.

That being said, the real impact is some schools can reverse fortunes quickly by diving head first in to the transfer portal. How successful is it going to be? I don't know. Montana will have an overwhelming number of HS kids on its roster next year.

Here is a quick snapshot at Next Years Roster:

Returning Starters:
PF/C: Josh Bannan (SR/HS)
PF/SF: Dischon Thomas (SR/TR)
SG/SF: Lonnell Martin (SR/JC)
PG/SG: Brandon Whitney (SR/HS)
----
PG/SG: Josh Vasquez (SR/HS) -- If he takes his Covid year
SF: Jaxon Nap (So/HS)
PF: Lalu Oke (Sr/TR)
PG/SG: Jonathan Brown (SR/TR)
PF: John Solomon (SO/HS-WO)

---
PG: Isaiah Kerr (RSFR/HS)
PF/C: Rhet Reynolds (RS FR/HS)
PF: Caden Bateman (RS FR/HS-WO)
SF: Dorell Thomas (RS FR/HS)
PG: Chase Henderson (FR/HS)
SG: Money Williams (FR/HS)
PF: Zach Davidson (FR/HS)

Montana will have 11 of its 15 roster spots filled by HS kids. By count, that'll be around 13 or so scholarships, of which 10 are spent on HS kids. Travis has stated that he can't depend on the transfer market to cure all ills, but he obviously would be pretty dang stupid not to trying to find some impact guys. Dischon Thomas is clearly that, and I think he'll heavily explore the market for another wing if a roster spot opens for next year. Right now, there isn't space but if the off season plays out like the past couple of years, I think there would be at least one roster spot available for a summer portal transfer.

I'll say this, Davidson and Williams are having great HS seasons so far. Harder to get a handle on Henderson, but Davidson has been averaging nearly a Double-Double and Williams has been scoring at a pretty high rate. Money at least based upon build and skill set seems to be on a similar track to that of Nap and could see key minutes at a position of need. Really seems like TDC got a really good one in Williams.

Watch this highlight of Money Williams game from earlier this year:
http://www.hudl.com/v/2KEq52
 
Isn't it amazing that these players hit 100% of their shots, get every rebound, never foul, and always get the clean steal in these highlight videos?
 
oldrunner said:
Isn't it amazing that these players hit 100% of their shots, get every rebound, never foul, and always get the clean steal in these highlight videos?

Until they get here and then according to some posters, can't find their a** with both hands! :lol:
 
It’s easy to be hard on the coaches as many, myself included have been. But I think another factor that goes understated is the impact the Gaskin situation had on the program. He was next in line, likely multi year all conference player with a POY ceiling. A player that had obvious talent like that is a hard loss. Easier to recruit to programs that win, he would’ve kept the winning going. Also fair to argue we likely don’t ever lose Beasley if that never happens.
 
UMFan12 said:
It’s easy to be hard on the coaches as many, myself included have been. But I think another factor that goes understated is the impact the Gaskin situation had on the program. He was next in line, likely multi year all conference player with a POY ceiling. A player that had obvious talent like that is a hard loss. Easier to recruit to programs that win, he would’ve kept the winning going. Also fair to argue we likely don’t ever lose Beasley if that never happens.

You can also argue the opposite in that Gaskin’s presence may have resulted in less playing time and a lesser role for Beasley which seems to be the primary reason most people transfer.
 
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