FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

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IdaGriz01
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FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by IdaGriz01 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 2:28 pm

There weren’t an extreme number of upsets on Saturday – just six – but two of them were against teams in the top-10. At the other end, two low-ranked teams also lost, so they’ll be gone from the next top-25. That means that, overall, my guesses were fairly straightforward … with a few points of minor intrigue.

Guess, Team (Record), [Current Ranking]
#1 NDSU (10-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (9-1) [2]
#3 Weber State [3]
#4 Northern Iowa (7-3) [5]
#5 Montana (8-2) [6]
#6 SDSU (7-3) [4]
#7 Sacramento State [8]
#8 Furman (7-3) [9]
#9 Illinois State [11]
#10 MSU (7-3) [12]
#11 Dartmouth (8-0) [13]
#12 Kennesaw State [15]
#13 Princeton (7-1) [10]
#14 Florida A&M (8-1) [16]
#15 SE Missouri State [17]
#16 Villanova (7-3) [18]
#17 Central Arkansas (7-3) [7]
#18 Monmouth (8-2) [19]
#19 Central Connecticut (9-1) [20]
#20 Towson (6-4) [21]
#21 Wofford (6-3) [24]
#22 Austin Peay (7-3) NR
#23 NC A&T (6-3) [14]
#24 Nicholls (6-4) [25]
#25 SE Louisiana (6-3) NR

NR North Dakota (5-4) [22]
NR UNH (5-4) [23]

Of course, we have to start with #4 South Dakota State. The game was fairly close (SDSU had a one-point lead at the half), until #11 Illinois pulled away in the 4th quarter. Since they lost to a ranked team (and it is the MVFC), I thought about just trading places between them and #5 Northern Iowa. However, two factors changed that slightly. First, the Jacks suffered the loss on their home field. More importantly, UNI and the Griz were just 5 points apart – out of over 3000 – in last week’s poll. That made them basically interchangeable … so I dropped SDSU behind both. Obviously, it would not be a huge surprise if the Panthers move up one and the Griz stay the same.

Next up (down, actually :) ), we have #7 Central Arkansas, which also lost at home. Worse yet, they got absolutely pummeled, 34-0, by an unranked Southeast Louisiana team. I’m guessing they will be hammered really hard … by about ten spots. In past years, that would seem like a lot, but this year the pollsters have really been punishing teams for such bad losses. (Back to this point in a moment.)

The loss by #10 Princeton to #13 Dartmouth should not hurt them too bad. Still, the Big Green was pretty much in control all the way, so I see the Tigers dropping about three spots.

The loss by #14 North Carolina A&T was another bad one (very bad :o ). They were on the road, but Morgan State (2-8) is a really terrible team. The Bear’s only other win was against Delaware State (2-8), another really pathetic team. I’m guessing about a nine-spot loss. It might have been more, but at least the final score was fairly close (22-16). But, frankly, it would not surprise me at all if the Aggies dropped completely out of the top-25.

The surprisingly close loss by #22 North Dakota to #3 Weber State presented a bit of a problem. After all, UND led the game for awhile. But they did end up losing, and being at #22 leaves no room for error (especially since their record is now 5-4). So I believe they will drop out of the top-25.

Same goes for #23 New Hampshire … an easy call since they got bombed by #2 James Madison (54-16, in case you missed that score).

To fill one of the open spots, the obvious choice was Austin Peay, which won handily and was the highest vote-getter among “Others receiving votes” in last week’s poll. Because of their nice 7-3 record, I decided to slot them in at #22.

As it happened, the Governors beat UT-Martin, the second highest “Other” last week. That might have opened the door for Sam Houston State. However, I had to factor in the way the pollsters now seem to be rewarding unranked teams that knock off ranked opponents (especially highly rank opponents). Now, there’s no way they can reward pitiful Morgan State with a ranking … be interesting if the Bears do get a few token votes. But SE Louisiana is a pretty good team, and they received 55 votes in last week’s poll. Their 6-3 record fits in very nicely where I put them at #25, and it would not surprise if they slotted in a bit higher.

If my guesses are right at the top, that will put four Big Sky teams in the top-10. Has that ever happened before?

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by signedbewildered » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 pm

I say we leapfrog UNI and SDSU.

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by RobGriz » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:10 pm

signedbewildered wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 pm
I say we leapfrog UNI and SDSU.
Ain’t no way we leapfrog UNI. The voters love them some UNI.
I'd rather the GRIZ go 9-4 and be in the FCS playoff hunt every year than go 6-5 and get an invite to play in the Whoreallygivesashit.com bowl

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by stubbins » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:12 pm

RobGriz wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:10 pm
signedbewildered wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 pm
I say we leapfrog UNI and SDSU.
Ain’t no way we leapfrog UNI. The voters love them some UNI.
Does the fact that they beat a 3-7 team by a score of 17-9 play into it?
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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by RobGriz » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:14 pm

stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:12 pm
RobGriz wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:10 pm
signedbewildered wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 pm
I say we leapfrog UNI and SDSU.
Ain’t no way we leapfrog UNI. The voters love them some UNI.
Does the fact that they beat a 3-7 team by a score of 17-9 play into it?
With me? Yes. With the voters? I doubt it. But who knows.
I'd rather the GRIZ go 9-4 and be in the FCS playoff hunt every year than go 6-5 and get an invite to play in the Whoreallygivesashit.com bowl

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by stubbins » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:17 pm

RobGriz wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:14 pm
stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:12 pm
RobGriz wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:10 pm
signedbewildered wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 pm
I say we leapfrog UNI and SDSU.
Ain’t no way we leapfrog UNI. The voters love them some UNI.
Does the fact that they beat a 3-7 team by a score of 17-9 play into it?
With me? Yes. With the voters? I doubt it. But who knows.
Just curious. In most of Ida's write ups, he mentions bad losses, but doesn't ever mention struggling wins.

Griz were crushed by sac and Oregon, but other than that, hasn't really been a nail biter at the end of any games.

Seems to matter at the FBS level, style points, but not so much in FCS
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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by IdaGriz01 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:33 pm

stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:12 pm
RobGriz wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:10 pm
signedbewildered wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 pm
I say we leapfrog UNI and SDSU.
Ain’t no way we leapfrog UNI. The voters love them some UNI.
Does the fact that they beat a 3-7 team by a score of 17-9 play into it?
Be nice if the Griz did jump UNI. And I won’t say it couldn’t happen. In the last STATS poll, UNI got 3,079 points, while the Griz had 3,074. Both teams were at home and both played weaker opponents – Indiana State (now 3-7) and Idaho (4-6). As “stubbins” notes, Northern Iowa squeaked by at 17-9, while the Griz pummeled Idaho.

So, by rights, UM should move ahead of UNI. Despite that, I’m not quite willing to say they will. In the past, the pollsters have seemed to favor the Panther whenever they get the chance. In fact, I would not be terribly surprised if UNI actually widened its lead over the Griz.

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by RobGriz » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:38 pm

IdaGriz01 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:33 pm
stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:12 pm
RobGriz wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:10 pm
signedbewildered wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 pm
I say we leapfrog UNI and SDSU.
Ain’t no way we leapfrog UNI. The voters love them some UNI.
Does the fact that they beat a 3-7 team by a score of 17-9 play into it?
Be nice if the Griz did jump UNI. And I won’t say it couldn’t happen. In the last STATS poll, UNI got 3,079 points, while the Griz had 3,074. Both teams were at home and both played weaker opponents – Indiana State (now 3-7) and Idaho (4-6). As “stubbins” notes, Northern Iowa squeaked by at 17-9, while the Griz pummeled Idaho.

So, by rights, UM should move ahead of UNI. Despite that, I’m not quite willing to say they will. In the past, the pollsters have seemed to favor the Panther whenever they get the chance. In fact, I would not be terribly surprised if UNI actually widened its lead over the Griz.
Exactly
I'd rather the GRIZ go 9-4 and be in the FCS playoff hunt every year than go 6-5 and get an invite to play in the Whoreallygivesashit.com bowl

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by get'em_griz » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:38 pm

IdaGriz01 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:33 pm
stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:12 pm
RobGriz wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:10 pm
signedbewildered wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:08 pm
I say we leapfrog UNI and SDSU.
Ain’t no way we leapfrog UNI. The voters love them some UNI.
Does the fact that they beat a 3-7 team by a score of 17-9 play into it?
Be nice if the Griz did jump UNI. And I won’t say it couldn’t happen. In the last STATS poll, UNI got 3,079 points, while the Griz had 3,074. Both teams were at home and both played weaker opponents – Indiana State (now 3-7) and Idaho (4-6). As “stubbins” notes, Northern Iowa squeaked by at 17-9, while the Griz pummeled Idaho.

So, by rights, UM should move ahead of UNI. Despite that, I’m not quite willing to say they will. In the past, the pollsters have seemed to favor the Panther whenever they get the chance. In fact, I would not be terribly surprised if UNI actually widened its lead over the Griz.
I'd love it if the Griz get seeded higher than UNI in the playoffs like they did in 2011 :lol:
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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by IdaGriz01 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:45 pm

stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:17 pm
... Just curious. In most of Ida's write ups, he mentions bad losses, but doesn't ever mention struggling wins.

Griz were crushed by sac and Oregon, but other than that, hasn't really been a nail biter at the end of any games.

Seems to matter at the FBS level, style points, but not so much in FCS
You make a very good point. I seldom "rate" the strength, or weakness, of a win because it does not seem to matter much to the pollsters. In their collective minds, a win is a win, even if the final score was close. And here's a specific sub-set: Even when a ranked team is taken into overtime by a lower-ranked or unranked opponent, it doesn't seem to hurt the winner's ranking much.

It will interesting to see how Weber's point total ends up tomorrow. The 'Cats had to rally from a 27-20 deficit with about 7 min left in the game. There's certainly a "struggling win," and may cost them a few votes ... but not enough to hurt their ranking.

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by stubbins » Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:50 pm

IdaGriz01 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:45 pm
stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:17 pm
... Just curious. In most of Ida's write ups, he mentions bad losses, but doesn't ever mention struggling wins.

Griz were crushed by sac and Oregon, but other than that, hasn't really been a nail biter at the end of any games.

Seems to matter at the FBS level, style points, but not so much in FCS
You make a very good point. I seldom "rate" the strength, or weakness, of a win because it does not seem to matter much to the pollsters. In their collective minds, a win is a win, even if the final score was close. And here's a specific sub-set: Even when a ranked team is taken into overtime by a lower-ranked or unranked opponent, it doesn't seem to hurt the winner's ranking much.

It will interesting to see how Weber's point total ends up tomorrow. The 'Cats had to rally from a 27-20 deficit with about 7 min left in the game. There's certainly a "struggling win," and may cost them a few votes ... but not enough to hurt their ranking.
I would say that should normally be the case...it's just magnified in this scenario, because the totals were so close.
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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by IdaGriz01 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 4:00 pm

stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:50 pm
IdaGriz01 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:45 pm
stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:17 pm
... Just curious. In most of Ida's write ups, he mentions bad losses, but doesn't ever mention struggling wins.

Griz were crushed by sac and Oregon, but other than that, hasn't really been a nail biter at the end of any games.

Seems to matter at the FBS level, style points, but not so much in FCS
You make a very good point. I seldom "rate" the strength, or weakness, of a win because it does not seem to matter much to the pollsters. In their collective minds, a win is a win, even if the final score was close. And here's a specific sub-set: Even when a ranked team is taken into overtime by a lower-ranked or unranked opponent, it doesn't seem to hurt the winner's ranking much.

It will interesting to see how Weber's point total ends up tomorrow. The 'Cats had to rally from a 27-20 deficit with about 7 min left in the game. There's certainly a "struggling win," and may cost them a few votes ... but not enough to hurt their ranking.
I would say that should normally be the case...it's just magnified in this scenario, because the totals were so close.
Seem reasonable to me. However, I've been burned too many times by assuming the pollsters will do something "reasonable." Hope they prove me wrong in this case. ;)

And wouldn't that be great?! Next Saturday's game with Weber would match #3 versus #4.

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by IslandGriz » Sun Nov 10, 2019 6:16 pm

I was disappointed last week when the Griz didn’t jump ahead of UNI in the poll. I’m afraid this week the voters may have more of an excuse to show some undeserving love to UNI. Unless I misread it, 2 UNI players were just added to the STATS watch lists. One to the Buck Buchanan list and the other to the Jerry Rice list. This shouldn’t sway voting since the polls should reflect a team effort, but it is hard to explain some of the points UNI has received over the years.
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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by retiredpopo » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:04 pm

we should be #3 but no biggie after next week we will be number 2

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by DoubleNicks » Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:27 pm

Wait, you don't have Illinois State jumping us to #5? Something's wrong. They ARE MVFC, ya know. And they just beat the #4 team in the nation.


(....being sarcastic, of course, but I actually wouldn't be too surprised by this after UNI jumped us with a worse record) :cry:

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by IdaGriz01 » Sun Nov 10, 2019 8:31 pm

DoubleNicks wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 7:27 pm
Wait, you don't have Illinois State jumping us to #5? Something's wrong. They ARE MVFC, ya know. And they just beat the #4 team in the nation.

(....being sarcastic, of course, but I actually wouldn't be too surprised by this after UNI jumped us with a worse record) :cry:
I'd be shocked, but the sad thing is, that is not out of the question. We have seen some pretty strange things happen in the polls.

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by dupuyer griz » Mon Nov 11, 2019 7:55 am

I’d really like to see a second poll when this comes out that only shows teams that can be in the playoffs. There’s a conference that has a title game and doesn’t do playoffs and the ivy values education over playoffs unless it’s basketball I guess. Too bad, we miss out on some really high quality ivy teams in the playoffs. Dartmouth has been tough over the last couple years, Harvard always seems to be in the mix. It’s a tragedy not to have a team from the ivy that’s ranked in the top 10 not in the playoffs.

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by PlayerRep » Mon Nov 11, 2019 9:11 am

get'em_griz wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:38 pm
IdaGriz01 wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:33 pm
stubbins wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:12 pm
RobGriz wrote:
Sun Nov 10, 2019 3:10 pm

Ain’t no way we leapfrog UNI. The voters love them some UNI.
Does the fact that they beat a 3-7 team by a score of 17-9 play into it?
Be nice if the Griz did jump UNI. And I won’t say it couldn’t happen. In the last STATS poll, UNI got 3,079 points, while the Griz had 3,074. Both teams were at home and both played weaker opponents – Indiana State (now 3-7) and Idaho (4-6). As “stubbins” notes, Northern Iowa squeaked by at 17-9, while the Griz pummeled Idaho.

So, by rights, UM should move ahead of UNI. Despite that, I’m not quite willing to say they will. In the past, the pollsters have seemed to favor the Panther whenever they get the chance. In fact, I would not be terribly surprised if UNI actually widened its lead over the Griz.
I'd love it if the Griz get seeded higher than UNI in the playoffs like they did in 2011 :lol:
I'd love to see the Griz win the next 2 games.

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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by Cuervohola » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:08 am

The Griz and the Joseph Smiths will be 3/4 or Vice versa.
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Re: FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Nov 10)

Post by stubbins » Mon Nov 11, 2019 10:52 am

Lame Monday....I’m sitting around waiting for the polls to come out. Just chillin....


WHEN DO THE FUCKING POLLS COME OUT?!!!!!
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