Honestly I expect this team to do better out of the simple sake that they didn't graduate much, no changes in coaching staff, there's more experience, and better depth. Yeah there's concerns in many spots, I'm not ignoring that.
Additionally it seems that as of lately, some of the top teams in the Big Sky usually fall flat the next year. I would assume that because of the way the teams have been built and coached that Weber and EWU would avoid that fate. ISU and UCD we'll have to see. In theory they should be good again, but we've seen teams like UND, SUU, and PSU go from good to awful in a single season.
Looking at the Griz schedule it's tough to really gauge at this point. One would think that they should go 3-1 in OOC, but nothings a given, both Monmouth and N. Alabama had good records, despite weaker overall schedules. USD is in the toughest football conference in the FCS.
In-conference if things generally stay constant;
- Sac, PSU, Idaho the Griz should be favored to win.
- ISU at home Griz should be favored slightly or a toss-up.
- MSU, WSU, EWU, UCD would presumably all be favored
So straight chalk you're at 7-5.
One could go either way here, if the Griz can steal 1 or 2 from the 4 games where they aren't favored then they're in great shape. On the other hand, they could also drop a game they should win, like one of those OOC games or a road game (@PSU).
Keep in mind that with exception to 1 game, the Griz lead in the 4th quarter of every loss. Additionally as has been pointed out, those losses usually hinged on one moment or series that could have tipped it the other way. I think a lot of this is due to the youth and thin ranks of the team, many of which return with more experience and as generally better players. I also like that ISU, EWU, and Weber at here in Missoula.
If I were to put a range on the amount of wins right now I'd say 7 or 8. I think I could talk myself in to 9 wins... but that would require some more pieces to come together with the progression of this team and presumably a few expected tough matchups on our schedule to totally fall apart.