CAUTIOUS OPTIMISM -- I like that assesment, alabamagrizzly! At this point, in fact, I'm not even so cautious... I'm very positive re: the production of this young Montana team, for several reasons.
1. Mainly because they're still a young program and actually only in they're second recruiting cycle, they haven't evened-out starters from each class. Zero senior position players and only 2 juniors (battling for starting roles at that).
2. The ONLY Sr. leadership is coming from starting pitchers Colleen Driscoll and Maddy Stensby, both of whom struggled early. Driscoll pitched very well in the Stanford Invite, while Stensby seems to be working better in relief.
3. Not certain why, but jr. Michaela Hood is struggling & coach M is giving her a lot of leeway. The positive is that soph Tristin Achenbach is tossing innings and getting steadily stronger. She looked untouchable for 5 innings in her last outing (before getting more than touched-up in her 6th inning) against NDak State in another game they lost in late innings.
4. I think Montana looks to be right about where they were predicted pre-season. Some surprises. Weber State's pitching is very shaky right now. They might be having sore-arm or injury issues. The big surprise is Idaho State, due mainly to an impressive frosh pitcher (Pease) with a 1.81 era and a 4-0 record. She also looks capable of pitching on consecutive days. SAC and PSU look like solid locks on the top two spots.
5. I watched & listened to the excellent streamcasts of the Stanford Invite & the young p-b-p/color crew were very good. They mentioned several times that errors are waaaay up this year on all teams, mainly because of the very soggy weather conditions at all the California tourneys. They also noted that some pitchers were struggling with muddy/slippery mounds. So... something to consider.
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM:
• Last season Driscoll started slow and finished as one of the Big Sky's best. She seems to be repeating that pattern. IF Achenbach can continue her upward progress.... she's got an impressive 30 K's to 18 walk ratio (top 5 Big Sky) so far, but not full-game stamina. If she keeps improving, Montana can still have a decent pitching rotation and hope that Hood makes progress.
• An outstanding freshman class! I''m impressed and surprised (at a couple). Kudos to coach Meuchel for an outstanding recruiting class... despite unexpectedly losing two highly touted recruits. Currently the position-player rotation consists of 2 juniors, 3 sophomores (all locks to start) and... 4 impressive freshmen (two as locks to start). One of those frosh is catcher McKenna Tjaden, who is already filling an important role... technically as backup to soph Jessica McAlister. McAlister is so good that she's probably Montana's best at both catcher and 3b. What makes Tjaden so valuable is that she's an outstanding receiver (without quite the arm strength as McAlister behind the plate). When McAlister catches, freshman Kylie Becker plays the hot corner... and is doing quite capably on defense. That rotation is a good thing for Montana to have. The most impressive frosh, however, is probably SS Maygen McGrath. She's adjusting to the faster college game on defense, but not on offense. She has legit bat power, ranked 5th in the Big Sky @.368 with 4 doubles and 3 homers. Sophomore transfer Cami Sellers and sophomore Lexi Knauss are outstanding at 1b and 2b. Sellers has 11 rbi (batting 3rd) and Knauss @ leadoff has 22 hits & 5 doubles. The other lock as a starter is frosh cf Brooklyn Weisgram, who has made several outstanding throws to home already (at least one assist for an out). That leaves rf and lf, which have been capably played defensively by juniors Kylie Hayton and Ann Marie Petrino.... but (maybe the biggest surprise after last weekend) who are now joined in the rotation by late recruit, frosh Katie Pippel who -- in her first or second collegiate at bat -- hit a homer. Katie, Maygen, Cami and Brooklyn all have that classic profile of lean-yet-sturdy, athletic power women's softball players. So...
• Overall, though...the biggest cause for optimism is Montana's outstanding young hitting production, both for hits (3 players in the Big Sky top five in hits) & rbi...and a Big Sky best 9 homers.
• Their lone drawback so far has been late-inning collapses in at least four games they could have won... a mark of a young team, I guess.
• I think the Fresno State Bulldog Invite might give Montana an opportunity. None of the teams are the ranked power of Northwestern (23) and Stanford (just out of the top 25). Much depends on pitching, but I think They're capable of competing in every game. So... Go Montana.