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Big Sky Week ending 11/20

G

GrizBall

Well-known member
KenPom rankings and increases or decreases in rankings from the beginning of the year. Tiers are made by me.

Tier 1
1. MSU 162 (+11)

Tier 2
2. Griz 210 (-28)
3. NAU 223( +38)
4. UNC 225 (-53)

Not sure what this says about the conference. The difference between the Griz and MSU is about the same as the difference between the Griz and PSU. Not buying NAU long term, but yet here we are.

Tier 3

5. EWU 240 (-58)
6. SAC. 249 (+27)
7. WSU 251 (- 20)
8. PSU. 260 (+34)

Considered a Tier 2.5 with 7 teams and no Tier 3.

Tier 4

9. ISU 330 (+15)
10. UI 356 (-4)

I feel like this is a big separation week. You will have seen all teams against a wide range of teams and most teams will have played close to 8 games.




Team of the Week. Normally I default to the team with the best win which this week is NAU beating the Big West favorite UC Santa Barbara (KenPom # 95 at the time). And I will still pick the Lumberjacks, however a Big Sky victory over a PAC-12 school is pretty rare. PSU beating OSU (regardless of how bad the PAC-12 team is) still needs to be recognized.


MSU - Awful thumping by UO and Belo put up a goose egg. Bounce back win against North Dakota. Unless there is a Big Sky team that has not one, but two 7-feet tall McDonald’s All-Americans, I still think MSU is still a safe bet to come out of the Big Sky.

UNC - No shame in losing big to Baylor, however if you are truly a contender and you get a Mountain West bottom feeder (San Jose St.) at home you absolutely positively need to win that game. Zero excuse. They look like the Big Sky version of the Lakers - A big 3 Kountz/Johnson/Knecht) with very inconsistent contributions on a nightly basis from others.

EWU - A harder than it needed to be 62-50 win over Miss. Valley St. (KenPom #362 of of 363 D-1 teams) does nothing to make me think they are back in track. Even more concerning continues to be the play of 1st Team pre-Season all big Sky Steele Venters who is averaging 8ppg on 29%FG/23%3. EWU doesn’t have a player averaging more than 2.3apg. Last year Rylan Bergensen was one of the league leaders setting the plate for Venters.

The Idaho’s. I was hoping that the Idaho’s could turn the corner and at least get out of the “Worst Teams in Country” territory. I still have hope for ISU. I think they brought in some talent in Miguel Tomley from Santa Clara, Kolby Lee from BYU and Brock McKenzie from D-2. They have played BYU and Utah somewhat tough on the road. I am not even sure what to say about Idaho at this point.
 
Montana’s issues run a lot deeper than just not having played together enough. 99% of all college teams can make that statement in the transfer portal era.

The Griz should actually be in better shape than most in the BSC as they have a stable, experienced staff that have been together for awhile and 5 out of the top 7 in their rotation are returning with tons of experience at Montana.

The front court has been fantastic. Bannan is playing at a POY level and Thomas looks to be one of top 15 guys in the conference. Anderson is excellent in his role backing both of them up (I am not a fan of the 3-big lineup with Whitney out, but that’s just me).

The issue is that the Griz have significant skills deficiencies on the perimeter which make this a poorly constructed roster. More time playing together can’t correct that. Again, this is not to bash anyone as they all are good and have plenty of things each does very well. But they are also an older group and there is nothing that I have seen through 5 games to make me think that there was much improvement in weaker areas over the summer. They seem like they all have the exact some strengths and weaknesses as last year.

Happy to admit later in the season if I’m wrong. But essentially every D-1 team will improve with time playing together. Is Montana’s improvement going to be much greater than everyone else’s. If so, why? Two new players in the contributing rotation is likely below the mean of the average BSC team.
 
GrizBall said:
Montana’s issues run a lot deeper than just not having played together enough. 99% of all college teams can make that statement in the transfer portal era.

The Griz should actually be in better shape than most in the BSC as they have a stable, experienced staff that have been together for awhile and 5 out of the top 7 in their rotation are returning with tons of experience at Montana.

The front court has been fantastic. Bannan is playing at a POY level and Thomas looks to be one of top 15 guys in the conference. Anderson is excellent in his role backing both of them up (I am not a fan of the 3-big lineup with Whitney out, but that’s just me).

The issue is that the Griz have significant skills deficiencies on the perimeter which make this a poorly constructed roster. More time playing together can’t correct that. Again, this is not to bash anyone as they all are good and have plenty of things each does very well. But they are also an older group and there is nothing that I have seen through 5 games to make me think that there was much improvement in weaker areas over the summer. They seem like they all have the exact some strengths and weaknesses as last year.

Happy to admit later in the season if I’m wrong. But essentially every D-1 team will improve with time playing together. Is Montana’s improvement going to be much greater than everyone else’s. If so, why? Two new players in the contributing rotation is likely below the mean of the average BSC team.
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I agree. Feel like we worked to address shooting in the off season, but are still lacking well rounded guard play. Moody is going to be have good percentages, seems like Lonnell still misses too many wide open 3's and I don't really understand how Dischon shot 40% from 3 last yr. Plus Josh is 20% from 3...even tho I think he disproportionately takes a lot of shots at the end of the shot clock.

We're lacking guards with the ability to attack the paint and finish/create. Obviously Brandon is quick but his inability to shoot (six 3's on the year) makes it hard for him to get past sagging defenders. Lonnell has shot 1 free throw all year. Minus Brandon, we don't have another guard over 5 assists after 5 games...like 1 assist or less per game for almost all of our ball handlers lol. Bannan is our best creator, decision maker, rebounder, and scorer by a mile.
 
LittleBear said:
GrizBall said:
Montana’s issues run a lot deeper than just not having played together enough. 99% of all college teams can make that statement in the transfer portal era.

The Griz should actually be in better shape than most in the BSC as they have a stable, experienced staff that have been together for awhile and 5 out of the top 7 in their rotation are returning with tons of experience at Montana.

The front court has been fantastic. Bannan is playing at a POY level and Thomas looks to be one of top 15 guys in the conference. Anderson is excellent in his role backing both of them up (I am not a fan of the 3-big lineup with Whitney out, but that’s just me).

The issue is that the Griz have significant skills deficiencies on the perimeter which make this a poorly constructed roster. More time playing together can’t correct that. Again, this is not to bash anyone as they all are good and have plenty of things each does very well. But they are also an older group and there is nothing that I have seen through 5 games to make me think that there was much improvement in weaker areas over the summer. They seem like they all have the exact some strengths and weaknesses as last year.

Happy to admit later in the season if I’m wrong. But essentially every D-1 team will improve with time playing together. Is Montana’s improvement going to be much greater than everyone else’s. If so, why? Two new players in the contributing rotation is likely below the mean of the average BSC team.


I agree. Feel like we worked to address shooting in the off season, but are still lacking well rounded guard play. Moody is going to be have good percentages, seems like Lonnell still misses too many wide open 3's and I don't really understand how Dischon shot 40% from 3 last yr. Plus Josh is 20% from 3...even tho I think he disproportionately takes a lot of shots at the end of the shot clock.

We're lacking guards with the ability to attack the paint and finish/create. Obviously Brandon is quick but his inability to shoot (six 3's on the year) makes it hard for him to get past sagging defenders. Lonnell has shot 1 free throw all year. Minus Brandon, we don't have another guard over 5 assists after 5 games...like 1 assist or less per game for almost all of our ball handlers lol. Bannan is our best creator, decision maker, rebounder, and scorer by a mile.
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I wonder if any thought is being given to bringing Isaiah Kerr off of redshirt. He was a very highly touted and honored point guard in high school. The Griz really missed Whitney in their last loss. I wonder if any thought is being given to bringing Isaiah Kerr off of redshirt. He was a very highly touted and honored point guard in high school. The Griz really missed Whitney in their last loss.
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Top rate thread. Your analyses are always on-target, GrizBall. In brief, then: The Griz don't have a point guard with combo skills similar to Ahmad Rorie (Michael Oguine), or Will Cherry, Kevin Criswell (etc.) who can singularly stretch a defense.

The textbook example (my opinion) was provided by St Thomas in last week's ZooTown tourney. The combo of a 6-6 point guard Rhode (a frosh) and shooting guard Miller (9 treys) could not match up against Montana's front court game, but effectively stretched the Troy pressure D with its inside-outside game. Rhode is the classic point guard who simply can't be guarded one-on-one (as his game-winner proved), but when double-teamed, he always seemed to find an open Miller.

Where does that put Montana? Not certain. Whitney's absence really hurt Montana vs Troy, but I've heard coach DeCuire in dozens of games stress that a solid D1 offensive attack needs to be able to score from the perimeter at a minimum 35%.

Regardless, I really like this team and personally think the on-court dynamics are still a work in progress.
 
GrizWhiz said:
LittleBear said:
I wonder if any thought is being given to bringing Isaiah Kerr off of redshirt. He was a very highly touted and honored point guard in high school. The Griz really missed Whitney in their last loss. I wonder if any thought is being given to bringing Isaiah Kerr off of redshirt. He was a very highly touted and honored point guard in high school. The Griz really missed Whitney in their last loss.
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I think this most likely be decided by 2 questions:

1. The severity of Whitney’s injury. If he is out only a few games then there is no reason to consider it. Especially with MSU- Northern coming to town. There is never a good time for injury, but this game should allow him to not play and buy him some more time.

2. What the staff’s view is of Kerr (Thanks Capt. Obvious, but let me explain)? One school of thought is that he wasn’t ready to contribute at this level. Another possibility is he could contribute, but with Whitney plugged in to 32 minutes a game is it worth playing him this year? You could easily see why the Staff would think some combo of Moody, Vasquez and Brown could competently fill in the other 8 mins PG minutes.
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Great work, Griz Ball. Wonderful to have somebody so passionate about Griz basketball.

I think our coaching staff did well in the portal. But I don't think they like to operate that way. Nor do I. Just too hard to fit so many new players into a brand new system in such a short time. To create a team with chemistry and cohesion.

What excites me about this program right now is the last two recruiting classes. It seems we have size in Reynolds and Zach Davidson; the son of a coach at point guard in Chase Henderson; and a potential dynamite backcourt featuring Dorrell Thomas, Money Williams and Isaiah Kerr, all from the Bay Area. Mix in Jaxon Nap, whom the coaches feel is ready to contribute right now, and I think the future is bright for this program.

I'm hoping there's somebody in this bunch that can bring some excitement back to Montana basketball. Players like Oguine, Cherry, Jamarr--or--thinking big!--Micheal Ray. There's magic in this here game of basketball, and I'm just not seeing it with this crew. So my "Money" is on the future.

P.S. Let me add one more frustrating thing about following our Griz: The absolute secrecy around injuries. I'm as sensitive about my own medical history as anybody but c'mon! This isn't cancer, high blood pressure, or Alzheimer's. This is college basketball! This is an ankle sprain or an ACL. If a player gets hurt in the pro's they'll tell ya, high ankle sprain, out, re-evaluated in ten days. Or out for the year if it's worse. So frustrating to know your team depends on this guy but he's out, we can't tell you why, and we won't tell you when he's gonna be back. If there's some dense law behind this--and I know there is--couldn't the player sign a waiver? Do we always have to be kept in the dark?
 
citay said:
Great work, Griz Ball. Wonderful to have somebody so passionate about Griz basketball.

I think our coaching staff did well in the portal. But I don't think they like to operate that way. Nor do I. Just too hard to fit so many new players into a brand new system in such a short time. To create a team with chemistry and cohesion.

What excites me about this program right now is the last two recruiting classes. It seems we have size in Reynolds and Zach Davidson; the son of a coach at point guard in Chase Henderson; and a potential dynamite backcourt featuring Dorrell Thomas, Money Williams and Isaiah Kerr, all from the Bay Area. Mix in Jaxon Nap, whom the coaches feel is ready to contribute right now, and I think the future is bright for this program.

I'm hoping there's somebody in this bunch that can bring some excitement back to Montana basketball. Players like Oguine, Cherry, Jamarr--or--thinking big!--Micheal Ray. There's magic in this here game of basketball, and I'm just not seeing it with this crew. So my "Money" is on the future.

P.S. Let me add one more frustrating thing about following our Griz: The absolute secrecy around injuries. I'm as sensitive about my own medical history as anybody but c'mon! This isn't cancer, high blood pressure, or Alzheimer's. This is college basketball! This is an ankle sprain or an ACL. If a player gets hurt in the pro's they'll tell ya, high ankle sprain, out, re-evaluated in ten days. Or out for the year if it's worse. So frustrating to know your team depends on this guy but he's out, we can't tell you why, and we won't tell you when he's gonna be back. If there's some dense law behind this--and I know there is--couldn't the player sign a waiver? Do we always have to be kept in the dark?
Click to expand...

You know who does love the secrecy? Gamblers. Knowing for sure (for example) that a starter is not playing is valuable info.

Privacy is not an issue by saying “Jones” is out 2-4 weeks (academics? Death in the family? Violation of team rules?). Same goes for the terms day-to-day, doubtful, game time decision, etc.

If you think the silence isn’t valuable info, I would suggest you watch the Tim Donaghy and Arizona St. basketball docs on Netflix. One of the ways the ASU players got caught is that an inordinate number of ASU students were placing bets on games, all for the same outcome.

I am 100% sure it would not be the players, but most likely a student being told I’ll give you $200 if you can tell me whether “Jones” was wearing a boot when he walked in for shoot-around today. That’s also easily gathered info by just going to class or seeing someone on campus.

There is little-to-no competitive advantage to silence. I could see if it was the difference between whether a running QB or a passing QB was out due to an injury and you didn’t know which one you were to face. The prep for football and the impact of not having that knowledge is pretty big. Whether or not “Jones” plays next Thursday is really only valuable info for the degenerates that would actually bet on a Griz basketball game.
 
Seems like there's been a lot of talk on the lack of QB development around UM athletics...I think the same could be discussed in terms of guard development the last few years
 
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