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Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2019 8:56 pm
by CleanHOUSE
With a fairly good sample size of this young team and good look at the pace at which players are progressing and where the team is showing weakness and strength what are your predictions for how we finish the year.
If you look at ESPN match-up predictor we are only projected to win vNAU, vIdaho, vMSU, @Idaho, vWeber, vISU. Basically Idaho is the only team we can beat on the road.
I think we are better than this but EWU is putting up some crazy offensive numbers! Its hard to think we could put the baskeball in the hoop at the same rate as them, but otherwise I would expect us to win more than we lose. I say we lose 5 conference games plus the Oregon game tonight and finish 20-11

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-18 over last 22 games

Posted: Wed Dec 18, 2019 9:48 pm
by Paytonlives
6-18 Ya thats not gonna happen...

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-18 over last 22 games

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 9:53 am
by Mousegriz
Subject heading must have been written by PR!

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-18 over last 22 games

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:30 am
by maroonandsilver
Impossible. 6 and 18 does not add up to 22.

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-18 over last 22 games

Posted: Thu Dec 19, 2019 11:16 am
by Mousegriz
maroonandsilver wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:30 am
Impossible. 6 and 18 does not add up to 22.
Does for PR!

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-18 over last 22 games

Posted: Fri Dec 20, 2019 12:00 am
by CleanHOUSE
maroonandsilver wrote:
Thu Dec 19, 2019 10:30 am
Impossible. 6 and 18 does not add up to 22.
Hahaha oops

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:33 pm
by 84GRIZ
Well we are 10 and 5 so far. That post was immediately before the Oregon game so that was one of the losses and Creighton was another one (we should have one that game).

Hope the team keeps it up. Seems like someone steps up every game to help Sayeed out. Last game Anderson was a beast.

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:49 pm
by EverettGriz
There’s something screwy going on with ESPN’s algorithm when it comes to the GRIZ this year. It had us with less than a 4% chance to win prior to the game in Cheney earlier in the year.

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:22 pm
by CleanHOUSE
EverettGriz wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 1:49 pm
There’s something screwy going on with ESPN’s algorithm when it comes to the GRIZ this year. It had us with less than a 4% chance to win prior to the game in Cheney earlier in the year.
Yeah Im curious what metrics they use. We are young(maybe the judge our frosh by start rating?) and our metrics aren't great as far as ppg scored and allowed, and we give up a lot more FTs, but why is SUU favored to beat us in Missoula? and only 30% chance to beat NAU. There must be some stat that we are not supposed to be overcoming consistently...but whatever its fun to see this team beat the odds!

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 2:50 pm
by DPGriz
There are better win predictors than ESPN. Barttorvik does a good job and has higher expectations for the Griz.

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:10 pm
by AZGrizFan
The original post’s subject was ludicrous. There was no way Griz were going 6-16, even on their worst day/season. Nice to see them blow those ridiculous projections out of the water.

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 7:47 pm
by EverettGriz
AZGrizFan wrote:
Sun Feb 09, 2020 6:10 pm
The original post’s subject was ludicrous. There was no way Griz were going 6-16, even on their worst day/season. Nice to see them blow those ridiculous projections out of the water.
Of course not. Which is why we say there was and is something mucked up in the ESPN algorithm when it comes to UM basketball this year.

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sun Feb 09, 2020 11:59 pm
by DPGriz
Eh, this was not a very good team in the non conference, you could come to that conclusion by watching this team or by looking at the computer numbers. It's a credit to TDC and the veterans players (aside from Sayeed, he was good the whole way) that they all took pretty big steps forward as we got into the conference season.

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Mon Feb 10, 2020 5:55 pm
by CleanHOUSE
ESPN absolutley love Norther Colorado for some reason. Im sorry, but only Duke has 98% chance to beat Idaho. They are favored at better than 71% in every remaining game.

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:17 am
by MikeyGriz
Call ESPN and ask how that prediction is working out! Do they want to put any money on their predictions on the last 7 games?

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:36 pm
by Buttegrizzle
ESPN knows diddly about the BSC. Willing to bet their prognosticator couldn’t even name all the schools and what state they are from (hint Weber is not a state). $ says they might go to one BSC game a year. Year in and year out their NCAA announcers talk about the “Montana State Grizzlies” in the Big Dance like they are there for the first time, or talk about the Montana Grizzlies “from Bozeman” blah blah blah.

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 2:22 pm
by IdaGriz01
Buttegrizzle wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:36 pm
ESPN knows diddly about the BSC. Willing to bet their prognosticator couldn’t even name all the schools and what state they are from (hint Weber is not a state). $ says they might go to one BSC game a year. Year in and year out their NCAA announcers talk about the “Montana State Grizzlies” in the Big Dance like they are there for the first time, or talk about the Montana Grizzlies “from Bozeman” blah blah blah.
We blame it a lot ... because it's real: East Coast bias.

Not all of them, but ESPN crews seem to have no trouble with Wagner, Lafayette, etc., and even know who some of their star players are. Get west of the Mississippi (being charitable) and their ignorance and/or lack of interest shows. I'm not sure some of them even know where Gonzaga is, although they do know the players (and go on and on about the international recruiting).

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:35 pm
by CleanHOUSE
Buttegrizzle wrote:
Fri Feb 14, 2020 8:36 pm
ESPN knows diddly about the BSC. Willing to bet their prognosticator couldn’t even name all the schools and what state they are from (hint Weber is not a state). $ says they might go to one BSC game a year. Year in and year out their NCAA announcers talk about the “Montana State Grizzlies” in the Big Dance like they are there for the first time, or talk about the Montana Grizzlies “from Bozeman” blah blah blah.
When EA first put the Griz ing NCAA Football the announcer would say Montana State Grizzlies lol. That being said the win predictor has no human input just formula based on stats. If you think there is a Human at ESPN making predictions about Bigsky games you are assuming way more importance than they would ever give BSC

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:39 pm
by Buttegrizzle
Ain’t AI miraculous? The computer Logarithm that picked the Griz to lose 6/6 down the stretch could soon be driving semis over Lost Trail Pass...

Re: Griz Predicted to go 6-16 over last 22 games

Posted: Sat Feb 15, 2020 4:42 pm
by CleanHOUSE
MikeyGriz wrote:
Tue Feb 11, 2020 10:17 am
Call ESPN and ask how that prediction is working out! Do they want to put any money on their predictions on the last 7 games?
I think the point is not the ESPN win predictor is bad, it probably does a decent job if you look how it performs overall, what interesting is that there must be a few stats that cause the Griz to project poorly yet we are overcoming some statistical odds. For example maybe teams that get out shot by 5 at the FT line only win 32% of their games...or something like that