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How to beat Michigan

H

hfhmilkman

Member
Greetings. I am a UM fan. But wanted to share my thoughts on the team and how to beat the team. UM is the 2018 version of Virginia. They play great defense, do not turn the ball over, do not hit the offensive boards hard because they want to protect the transition game. They are also a very inconsistent perimeter team. Ergo, if they do not have layups they are prone to very long scoring droughts. It does not mean an upset is likely. There are still huge obstacles in that the Grizzlies rotation of 7 are guards is matched up against a power conference team with big fast frontcourt players. This height and athletic ability leverages into great defense, but not necessarily good offense. UM built their resume earlier in the year when the perimeter game was clicking.

First thing you need to pull an upset is senior leadership, preferably senior guard leadership. I see 2 seniors and 2 juniors who have seasoning from last year. The virtue of defense is it does not have an off night. UM is very good at denying 3pt shots as Beilein plays the percentages. Some guards are going to have to take contested shots late in the clock and make them. Limit the possessions, hope for a hot night by a senior guard who knows this might be the last game of his career and get some breaks. MSU had UM's number because they had the Player of they Year at PG who made all of the right decisions with their isolation ball with a high pick. So 60 is going to have to be enough to win.

On defense the key is to induce a bad hair day. If UM has a couple guys who are hitting the 3pt jumper it is over. Try to make the first few uncomfortable and than hope the mental blocks take care of the rest. When you are playing 5 guards, there will be some open perimeter looks. That is the thing with bad perimeter teams. They can go 2 for 20. At all cost do not give up easy baskets be it TO's, offensive rebounds, or risk taking on defense. If it is a bad hair day even short jumpers stop falling. But dunks and layups are immune.

To do this switch everything. Despite having a mobile seven foot one center, UM never posts up. Also the guards are not adept at post entry passes. Teske is a great low post defender. But sans a big man to defend he may be a liability as he has to match up with a guard that he cannot exploit on offense. You may see a lot of Livers at the 5 as he has guard mobility but center size. The PG Xavier Simpson might be the best perimeter defender in the Big10. But he does not have a 3pt shot off the dribble. So even one on five switches confound UM. Unlike last year there is no go to shooter. Wagner despite playing poorly against Montana last year bailed UM out in other games. Poole was supposed to be that guy and has faded during Big10 play.

UM in my opinion is really not a #2 seed. They are more of a #4 seed. Their best victories were in Dec. Because of their great defense they have managed to grind out wins. Poole and Brazdekis just need to figure some things out. But it has not happened this year yet. So they are no pushovers. This is a team that probably is year away from a tourney run. The west is kind of strange in that there are a lot of teams like UM. They are very good on defense and spotty on offense. Texas Tech, FSU, and Syracuse all can play the confounding defense yet be incapable of hitting a shot.

We love this tournament because anything can happen and its one and done. I hope everyone enjoys the tournament.
 
How to beat Michigin: show them video reel footage during the NCAA tourney on a tv behind their bench that showcases matchups in the big sky conference between basketball teams on the bottom end of the big sky standings (e.g. Idaho St. Vs. Idaho). They'll be laughing so hard it will spread to the Michigin players on the court, then we hit the basket hard. Rinse and repeat the video reel during each offensive possession for the Griz, and voile.
 
I'm not buying it. Uninformed UM fan. MSU had UM's number? Get real! Bobcats aren't even a factor.

Thanks for the post, hfflpuffmilkman.
 
I believe he was referring to Michigan State as MSU and the 'had their nunber" referenced Michigan State beating Michigan (UM) in Big Ten Championship.
 
I finally was able to get some time to review Michigan's stats, roster, and break down a few things. I came away pleasantly surprised. This is actually a better matchup than I originally thought. Granted, they do have the advantage of playing the tougher competition in their own conference. Beyond that, the styles and depth are pretty close.

(sorry, couldn't locate team defensive statistics as for fg%, 3%, etc). I hope someone can find more stats than these.
Statistically, GRIZ advantages:

Assists (even though Michigan has the best assist player, Simpson)
FG%- 49.7 to 45.1
3% - 38.0 to 35.1 (GRIZ with 5 of the 7 rotational players at over 35%, Michigan with 3 over 35%)
Steals- surprisingly GRIZ, 6.5 to 6.2 (very close)
Points per game- 76.8 to 70.7

Michigan advantages:
Rebounding- 35 to 33.7
Blocks-4.2 to 3
Turnovers- 8.9 to 12
FT%- 69.5 to 68.9

Depth- each team has 7 players averaging double figure minutes (Akoh not included, being he is injured)
However, Anderson averages 8.7. Michigan's 8th man averages only 4.6.
Teske is the only 6'8" plus player that plays significant minutes and does average 2.0 blocks per game.

Simpson-6'0"
Rorie- 6'1"

Poole- 6'5"
Falls- 6'2"

Matthews- 6'6"
Oguine- 6'2"

Brazdeikis- 6'7"
Pridgett- 6'5"

Teske- 7'1"
Moorehead- 6'7"

Livers- 6'7"
Dorsey- 6'7"

Brooks- 6'1"
Manuel-6'4"

Keys to the game:
(1)GRIZ shooting at or better than their season 3 point %. Last season, the GRIZ were horrible from 3. This season, Dorsey and Manuel are true 3 pt threats. Wild card-Pridgett at 47.4%, just doesn't shoot many though. I'd be looking to free up our 3 pt shooters as often as possible. Keep in mind, Dorsey and Manuel don't need a lot of room to shoot the 3. Both have high quick releases, with great trajectory on their shots. Utilize these 2 often!!!

(2) No more than 10 turnovers by the GRIZ.

(3) Get Simpson, Teske, and/or Livers (their version of Pridgett) in foul trouble. Why these 3 players? Teske is their only legitimate size with experience. Getting him out will open up the lane for our penetrating guards. Simpson is their glue at PG and appears to be their primary assist man and best on the ball defender. His absence puts ball handling and decision making on players not accustomed to those roles. Livers is their version of Pridgett for offensive and defensive versatility. Limiting him will force Teske to cover a lot of ground and defend out on the perimeter more often.

(4) Limit Brazdeikis offensively. If it were me, I'd rely on Moorehead's experience and defensive ability to do just that. Brazdeikis is a FR and needs to be challenged by the best more experienced defender possible. Size wise, they are each 6'7". Moorehead certainly doesn't want to be shown up by a FR! This is a challenge Moorehead should love to have!!!!!

(5) Be within 4 rebounds of Michigan. That is done easier by getting Teske in foul trouble. He is their best rebounder, but at only 6.9 per game.

(6) Continue to play lights out defense, play defense to the very end of the shot clock and force Michigan to attempt contested shots!!!! Keep Teske from dominating the paint.

(7) Know where Brazdeikis and Livers are at all times on the perimeter. Those 2 are their only consistent 3 pt shooters. IF we have to leave players open, just make sure it is not either of these 2!! Take our chances and force others to beat us.

(8) IF the GRIZ get a hot hand on offense...……..keep feeding whoever that hot hand is. The GRIZ have a lot of weapons. Got to have faith in all of them, when any one of them get hot.

(9) Start the game aggressively attacking their defense and the GRIZ defense swarm them relentlessly.

(10) Don't be shy to utilize Anderson for 10+ minutes for his length and rebounding. Look for him when our guards penetrate. He has learned to find the holes in a defense and be ready for the ball from our guards. He also is learning to finish strong. I'd love to see him have a momentum changing blocked shot or dunk!!!

I feel, if the GRIZ can score 70. They can beat Michigan. The biggest key to that, is BELIEVING that the GRIZ belong, and proving it, to the whole nation!!!!
 
mtgrizrule said:
I finally was able to get some time to review Michigan's stats, roster, and break down a few things. I came away pleasantly surprised. This is actually a better matchup than I originally thought. Granted, they do have the advantage of playing the tougher competition in their own conference. Beyond that, the styles and depth are pretty close.

(sorry, couldn't locate team defensive statistics as for fg%, 3%, etc). I hope someone can find more stats than these.
Statistically, GRIZ advantages:

Assists (even though Michigan has the best assist player, Simpson)
FG%- 49.7 to 45.1
3% - 38.0 to 35.1 (GRIZ with 5 of the 7 rotational players at over 35%, Michigan with 3 over 35%)
Steals- surprisingly GRIZ, 6.5 to 6.2 (very close)
Points per game- 76.8 to 70.7

Michigan advantages:
Rebounding- 35 to 33.7
Blocks-4.2 to 3
Turnovers- 8.9 to 12
FT%- 69.5 to 68.9

Depth- each team has 7 players averaging double figure minutes (Akoh not included, being he is injured)
However, Anderson averages 8.7. Michigan's 8th man averages only 4.6.
Teske is the only 6'8" plus player that plays significant minutes and does average 2.0 blocks per game.

Simpson-6'0"
Rorie- 6'1"

Poole- 6'5"
Falls- 6'2"

Matthews- 6'6"
Oguine- 6'2"

Brazdeikis- 6'7"
Pridgett- 6'5"

Teske- 7'1"
Moorehead- 6'7"

Livers- 6'7"
Dorsey- 6'7"

Brooks- 6'1"
Manuel-6'4"

Keys to the game:
(1)GRIZ shooting at or better than their season 3 point %. Last season, the GRIZ were horrible from 3. This season, Dorsey and Manuel are true 3 pt threats. Wild card-Pridgett at 47.4%, just doesn't shoot many though. I'd be looking to free up our 3 pt shooters as often as possible. Keep in mind, Dorsey and Manuel don't need a lot of room to shoot the 3. Both have high quick releases, with great trajectory on their shots. Utilize these 2 often!!!

(2) No more than 10 turnovers by the GRIZ.

(3) Get Simpson, Teske, and/or Livers (their version of Pridgett) in foul trouble. Why these 3 players? Teske is their only legitimate size with experience. Getting him out will open up the lane for our penetrating guards. Simpson is their glue at PG and appears to be their primary assist man and best on the ball defender. His absence puts ball handling and decision making on players not accustomed to those roles. Livers is their version of Pridgett for offensive and defensive versatility. Limiting him will force Teske to cover a lot of ground and defend out on the perimeter more often.

(4) Limit Brazdeikis offensively. If it were me, I'd rely on Moorehead's experience and defensive ability to do just that. Brazdeikis is a FR and needs to be challenged by the best more experienced defender possible. Size wise, they are each 6'7". Moorehead certainly doesn't want to be shown up by a FR! This is a challenge Moorehead should love to have!!!!!

(5) Be within 4 rebounds of Michigan. That is done easier by getting Teske in foul trouble. He is their best rebounder, but at only 6.9 per game.

(6) Continue to play lights out defense, play defense to the very end of the shot clock and force Michigan to attempt contested shots!!!! Keep Teske from dominating the paint.

(7) Know where Brazdeikis and Livers are at all times on the perimeter. Those 2 are their only consistent 3 pt shooters. IF we have to leave players open, just make sure it is not either of these 2!! Take our chances and force others to beat us.

(8) IF the GRIZ get a hot hand on offense...……..keep feeding whoever that hot hand is. The GRIZ have a lot of weapons. Got to have faith in all of them, when any one of them get hot.

(9) Start the game aggressively attacking their defense and the GRIZ defense swarm them relentlessly.

(10) Don't be shy to utilize Anderson for 10+ minutes for his length and rebounding. Look for him when our guards penetrate. He has learned to find the holes in a defense and be ready for the ball from our guards. He also is learning to finish strong. I'd love to see him have a momentum changing blocked shot or dunk!!!

I feel, if the GRIZ can score 70. They can beat Michigan. The biggest key to that, is BELIEVING that the GRIZ belong, and proving it, to the whole nation!!!!
Click to expand...

I'm with you on the hopeful side of things!

But what I think will likely happen is we try and attack early, get into the lane and Michigan's size and athleticism will shut that down and make it a long night as it snowballs. You know we aren't going to get the calls that we get in the #BSC, so getting their players in foul trouble won't be an easy task. Sayeed is slithery and made some fantastic shots playing the small post this year, but I don't see that happening against a taller, more athletic team like Michigan. Who knows, though? I sure hope I'm wrong! If the perfect storm happens, we hit some early shots in the lane or Rorie comes out and hits a few mid range shots and that opens things for Manuel and Dorsey. We have the guys to get this done. My concern is rebounds and turnovers. That will be key.
 
The same way you eat an elephant-a bite at a time. Don't play a 40 minute game; play 40 1 minute games. The Griz can play with anyone in the tourney for a minute. Tie half of these mini games. 10 each. Michigan can win 9 and we only have to win 11 out of the 40 1 minute games to come away with a victory. (assuming win and loses are equal). I'm confident we could win 11 minutes of the game. One minute at a time.
 
mtgrizrule said:
I finally was able to get some time to review Michigan's stats, roster, and break down a few things. I came away pleasantly surprised. This is actually a better matchup than I originally thought. Granted, they do have the advantage of playing the tougher competition in their own conference. Beyond that, the styles and depth are pretty close.

(sorry, couldn't locate team defensive statistics as for fg%, 3%, etc). I hope someone can find more stats than these.
Statistically, GRIZ advantages:

Assists (even though Michigan has the best assist player, Simpson)
FG%- 49.7 to 45.1
3% - 38.0 to 35.1 (GRIZ with 5 of the 7 rotational players at over 35%, Michigan with 3 over 35%)
Steals- surprisingly GRIZ, 6.5 to 6.2 (very close)
Points per game- 76.8 to 70.7

Michigan advantages:
Rebounding- 35 to 33.7
Blocks-4.2 to 3
Turnovers- 8.9 to 12
FT%- 69.5 to 68.9

Depth- each team has 7 players averaging double figure minutes (Akoh not included, being he is injured)
However, Anderson averages 8.7. Michigan's 8th man averages only 4.6.
Teske is the only 6'8" plus player that plays significant minutes and does average 2.0 blocks per game.

Simpson-6'0"
Rorie- 6'1"

Poole- 6'5"
Falls- 6'2"

Matthews- 6'6"
Oguine- 6'2"

Brazdeikis- 6'7"
Pridgett- 6'5"

Teske- 7'1"
Moorehead- 6'7"

Livers- 6'7"
Dorsey- 6'7"

Brooks- 6'1"
Manuel-6'4"

Keys to the game:
(1)GRIZ shooting at or better than their season 3 point %. Last season, the GRIZ were horrible from 3. This season, Dorsey and Manuel are true 3 pt threats. Wild card-Pridgett at 47.4%, just doesn't shoot many though. I'd be looking to free up our 3 pt shooters as often as possible. Keep in mind, Dorsey and Manuel don't need a lot of room to shoot the 3. Both have high quick releases, with great trajectory on their shots. Utilize these 2 often!!!

(2) No more than 10 turnovers by the GRIZ.

(3) Get Simpson, Teske, and/or Livers (their version of Pridgett) in foul trouble. Why these 3 players? Teske is their only legitimate size with experience. Getting him out will open up the lane for our penetrating guards. Simpson is their glue at PG and appears to be their primary assist man and best on the ball defender. His absence puts ball handling and decision making on players not accustomed to those roles. Livers is their version of Pridgett for offensive and defensive versatility. Limiting him will force Teske to cover a lot of ground and defend out on the perimeter more often.

(4) Limit Brazdeikis offensively. If it were me, I'd rely on Moorehead's experience and defensive ability to do just that. Brazdeikis is a FR and needs to be challenged by the best more experienced defender possible. Size wise, they are each 6'7". Moorehead certainly doesn't want to be shown up by a FR! This is a challenge Moorehead should love to have!!!!!

(5) Be within 4 rebounds of Michigan. That is done easier by getting Teske in foul trouble. He is their best rebounder, but at only 6.9 per game.

(6) Continue to play lights out defense, play defense to the very end of the shot clock and force Michigan to attempt contested shots!!!! Keep Teske from dominating the paint.

(7) Know where Brazdeikis and Livers are at all times on the perimeter. Those 2 are their only consistent 3 pt shooters. IF we have to leave players open, just make sure it is not either of these 2!! Take our chances and force others to beat us.

(8) IF the GRIZ get a hot hand on offense...……..keep feeding whoever that hot hand is. The GRIZ have a lot of weapons. Got to have faith in all of them, when any one of them get hot.

(9) Start the game aggressively attacking their defense and the GRIZ defense swarm them relentlessly.

(10) Don't be shy to utilize Anderson for 10+ minutes for his length and rebounding. Look for him when our guards penetrate. He has learned to find the holes in a defense and be ready for the ball from our guards. He also is learning to finish strong. I'd love to see him have a momentum changing blocked shot or dunk!!!

I feel, if the GRIZ can score 70. They can beat Michigan. The biggest key to that, is BELIEVING that the GRIZ belong, and proving it, to the whole nation!!!!
Click to expand...

Nice, helpful summary and analysis. Thanks.
 
Let me boil it down for you.

We live in the era of three-ball. To win this game, Montana must make three's.

Lots of three's! Raining down three's!

Our entire starting unit, plus our top reserves, Manuel and Dorsey, are all capable of making three's. And they must.

More, one guy has to be on fire. Maybe Dorsey or Rorie or Manuel from deep. Or Pridgett from anywhere.

Remember our list of the all-time great individual games by a Montana player?

On Thursday, somebody must make that list. Or we don't win.

Maybe we station all five starters at the three-point line, and force their big to come out and defend us.

It all could happen.

But not if we can't hit our three's.

Period.
 
KILO217 said:
I believe he was referring to Michigan State as MSU and the 'had their nunber" referenced Michigan State beating Michigan (UM) in Big Ten Championship.
Click to expand...

I don't know. That doesn't seem to add up.
 
what is the over/under on us running a backside screen for Oguine on our first possession for a alley-oop? I imagine it has to be pretty high. infact didn't we start last years game with it?
 
By far the best defensive team and best coached team the Griz play this year. Open 3's will be difficult to come by, unless Michigan comes not ready to play/complacent, which I doubt. Real crappy draw, IMO... Hopefully Montana can keep it close till the end and have the seniors come up with some clutch shots/buckets. Wish we were a better FT shooting team and had Akoh. Punchers chance I guess though.
 
mtgrizfankb said:
what is the over/under on us running a backside screen for Oguine on our first possession for a alley-oop? I imagine it has to be pretty high. infact didn't we start last years game with it?
Click to expand...

I was thinking this is a real possibility. I'm sure they are going to game plan for it. I won't be surprised if it happens and, if it does, the crowd's going to be in our pocket all night!
 
Found this random link this morning: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2826286

NCAA Brackets 2019: The Chaos Bracket That Could Actually Happen

"Biggest first-round upset: No. 15 Montana over No. 2 Michigan

Last year, Montana took a 10-0 lead against Michigan before losing 61-47. The Big Sky winners eventually had no answer for U-M's defense, which held the Grizzlies to a trio of three-pointers and a 32.1 percent clip overall. But that offense ranked 236th from distance; this No. 15 Montana team is 25th. If the Wolverines can't eliminate the dry spells plaguing the team lately, they're in danger."
 
Iowagriz said:
Found this random link this morning: https://bleacherreport.com/articles/2826286

NCAA Brackets 2019: The Chaos Bracket That Could Actually Happen

"Biggest first-round upset: No. 15 Montana over No. 2 Michigan

Last year, Montana took a 10-0 lead against Michigan before losing 61-47. The Big Sky winners eventually had no answer for U-M's defense, which held the Grizzlies to a trio of three-pointers and a 32.1 percent clip overall. But that offense ranked 236th from distance; this No. 15 Montana team is 25th. If the Wolverines can't eliminate the dry spells plaguing the team lately, they're in danger."
Click to expand...

Sounds good to me.
 
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