Commentary
Delaware at W&M has to be the marquee matchup, since it involves a top-10 team. The Tribe lost to now-ranked Elon by only 4 points, or this would be a match between two undefeated teams. And let’s not forget that they both beat FBS opponents. Admittedly, crappy FBS teams, but still … This should be a barn-burner.
Southern Illinois at Missouri State, our other ranked vs ranked game, has a rather peculiar backstory … two teams going in opposite directions. The Salukis lost their two opening games … both good FCS opponents. Then they upset FBS Northwestern and have won two FCS games since. Missouri State began the season on fire, beating two FCS opponents (one of them ranked), and then throwing a scare into a good Arkansas team. But after losing there, they’ve since lost two more in a row.. The Bears will be in absolute desperation mode. If they can channel that in a home game, an “upset” won’t be out of reach.
Jackson State at Alabama State looks less like a mismatch when you recall that one of A-State’s losses was to UCLA. Other than that, they have not played a tough schedule … but neither has Jackson State (opponents combined record: 4-15). Not a highly likely upset, but if the Tigers come in flat, it could happen.
Although Western Carolina is not ranked, Mercer had better watch out. The Catamounts have crushed their lesser opponents, and have lost only to an FBS opponent and ranked Samford. Mercer looks strong (they lost only at Auburn), but WC can really put up the points (167 in their three wins).
North Dakota at Youngstown State is made more interesting by the possibility of a Hawk letdown after their big win over Missouri State. And the Penguins are no pushover, especially at home. Their two losses were to a very good Kentucky team and #1 NDSU. Plus, they’ll be desperate … an 0-2 conference record would really put them behind the eight-ball.
Have to admit, the Towson at Elon game does not look too promising for an upset. Elon has been on a roll after playing Vanderbilt really tough. For this one, you have to fall back on “on any given Saturday” … with the possibility that the Phoenix might be looking ahead to Rhode Island.
Abilene Christian, with its 4-1 record, stands out among the “Others Receiving Votes” … but has not broken into the top-25. I was intrigued by their matchup at Stephen F. Austin and decided to include it. Neither team has played a powerhouse schedule, yet the Wildcats (AC) are in the running for the auto-bid from the ASUN-WAC combine. The Wildcats are the “favorite” because of their record, and a small edge in Sagarin. Yet a win by the Lumberjacks could pull them into a tie for that coveted auto-bid. FWIW: It seems to me that SFA is the more “battle tested” of the two.
