Upset Guesses (October 30)

As PaytonLives noted over on the “FCS Games - Week 9” thread, the field of potential upsets is pretty anemic this coming Saturday. One I did include is for those who love long-shots or just want to vote for what they’d like to see happen.

With so few picks, you are allowed only one this week, but you can still change your mind later.

Official verification: Bobcats Suck!

Commentary
Even with Tarleton at home, the game with Sam Houston seems pretty much a hopeless case. The Texans record is grossly misleading: Their four wins are against winless Dixie State and three D-II opponents. I put it in for those who might vote for what they would like to happen, no matter how unlikely.

William & Mary has a respectable record (third in the CAA), which raises some hopes of an upset against Villanova. One of the Tribe’s losses was to a very good Virginia (6-2) team. The other loss was to Maine (3-4), but then they bounced back to clobber Towson (3-4), 40-14.

Elon (4-3) is one of three teams in the CAA who have only one conference loss (one of the others being JMU). One of their three losses was to a pretty good App State team, the other to a pretty solid William & Mary (5-2) squad. JMU is strong, no doubt about that, but an upset here is certainly not out of reach.

Have already laid out reasons to be skeptical about the high ranking for Southern Illinois, over on the STAT FCS Poll thread. A big one: Aside from SDSU, the cumulative record of the Saluki’s FCS opponents is 12-25. Another factor is that UNI beat SDSU fairly decisively (26-17), whereas SIU squeaked by when SDSU missed a PAT in overtime.

The Gardner-Webb at Kennesaw State game would look like less of a mismatch if we take away their two losses to FBS opponents to start the year. In fact, they hung within 5 points of Georgia Southern, and actually outscored the Eagles in the 4th quarter. Not saying there’s a high probability of an upset, but the Owls best not overlook the Bulldogs.

Maine (3-4) is better than their overall record might indicate. Their losses have included two highly-ranked FCS teams and a strong FBS opponent. The other was to a solid Elon (4-3) team. Plus, this seems to be the time of the year when the wheels come off for Rhode Island.

What stinks is I don’t know what to think of NOVA or JMU. I think JMU caught WSU at a great time. I hope they both don’t eat up seeds. One of them? For sure, but both… I just don’t think they’re both top 8 material. They’ll both go relatively untested again until playoffs.

IdaGriz01 said:

As PaytonLives noted over on the “FCS Games - Week 9” thread, the field of potential upsets is pretty anemic this coming Saturday. One I did include is for those who love long-shots or just want to vote for what they’d like to see happen.

With so few picks, you are allowed only one this week, but you can still change your mind later.

Official verification: Bobcats Suck!

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I won't vote as a man of principle.

FTC

CatsRback said:

What stinks is I don’t know what to think of NOVA or JMU. I think JMU caught WSU at a great time. I hope they both don’t eat up seeds. One of them? For sure, but both… I just don’t think they’re both top 8 material. They’ll both go relatively untested again until playoffs.

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I’m with you. We’ve seen both teams play, but not their head-to-head matchup. In that game, both teams passed more than we’re used to seeing from those teams (‘Nova in particular). The big thing was, the Wildcats held JMU scoreless in the second half. The Dukes apparently moved the ball all right, but couldn’t put it in the end zone … and ended up losing by a point.

Schedule-wise, the CAA has a similar problem to the Big Sky … they don’t have a lot of common opponents. So far, they only have one, Richmond. Villanova beat them 34-27 (+7), while JMU won 19-3 (+16).

They’ll pick up three more common opponents the rest of the way. They both play Elon and William & Mary. They’ll fill in the last at the end of the season when Villanova goes to Delaware. JMU has already won over Delaware, 22-10. Villanova has the very slight edge with their 1 point win at JMU, but these three matchups will tell us a lot more about who might have the overall edge.

IdaGriz01 said:

CatsRback said:

What stinks is I don’t know what to think of NOVA or JMU. I think JMU caught WSU at a great time. I hope they both don’t eat up seeds. One of them? For sure, but both… I just don’t think they’re both top 8 material. They’ll both go relatively untested again until playoffs.

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I’m with you. We’ve seen both teams play, but not their head-to-head matchup. In that game, both teams passed more than we’re used to seeing from those teams (‘Nova in particular). The big thing was, the Wildcats held JMU scoreless in the second half. The Dukes apparently moved the ball all right, but couldn’t put it in the end zone … and ended up losing by a point.

Schedule-wise, the CAA has a similar problem to the Big Sky … they don’t have a lot of common opponents. So far, they only have one, Richmond. Villanova beat them 34-27 (+7), while JMU won 19-3 (+16).

They’ll pick up three more common opponents the rest of the way. They both play Elon and William & Mary. They’ll fill in the last at the end of the season when Villanova goes to Delaware. JMU has already won over Delaware, 22-10. Villanova has the very slight edge with their 1 point win at JMU, but these three matchup will tell us a lot more about who might have the overall edge.

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True.

This is where it would be nice to trim the fat at the bottom of the BSC. So we can get more head to head. SAC and UCD escape only having 2 tough games on their schedule and UM,MSU, WSU,EWU all beating each other up.. yet EWU ends up with all 3 of us at home some how..

As for the CAA, the east coast is a heaping dumpster fire that gets way too much credit IMO. I think Weber goes in and cleans house against RI, Delaware, etc…

No. Iowa playing at home should pull off this upset, and set themselves up to be the sixth MVFC team to get in the playoffs.

No idea how good Wm & Mary is this year but I'd say Villanova playing at home gives them the edge. Though historically our colonial marital team has put together some quality teams.

Went with Maine.

Here’s an interesting take on a weakness for James Madison:
https://www.whsv.com/2021/10/26/jmu-seeking-offensive-improvement-better-red-zone-results/

Key quote:

“There’s no doubt, we gotta score some touchdowns in the red (zone),” said JMU head coach Curt Cignetti. “There will probably be a big parade when we do.”
After performing as one of the best offenses in the country through the first few games of the season, the Dukes’ attack has been slowed in recent weeks.

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This was basically why JMU lost to Villanova. Overall, they moved the ball all right, with only about 50 yards less than ‘Nova in total offense. And they actually out-gained ’Nova on the ground: 165 to 130 yards. Yet they failed to score at all in the second half.

JMU started out like a house afire, averaging over 50 points per game (including 37 against Weber). They’re down to just 22.7 ppg in the last three games. Elon is no offensive juggernaut, but they do better than that.

kurtismichael said:

Went with Maine.

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Not a bad choice. One of their losses was to Delaware, which was then ranked in the top-10. Another was JMU. And a third was at Northern Illinois, which is currently leading the Western Division of the MAC ... and they've been close to getting ranked in the top FBS polls.

Bump.

I'm going to say McNeese beats #8 SELA

IdaGriz01 said:

kurtismichael said:

Went with Maine.

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Not a bad choice. One of their losses was to Delaware, which was then ranked in the top-10. Another was JMU. And a third was at Northern Illinois, which is currently leading the Western Division of the MAC ... and they've been close to getting ranked in the top FBS polls.

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It also seems like Rhode Island is flaming out like you mentioned they seem to do in your commentary.

Good not to include the Princeton-Cornell game. They're still in the 1st quarter and Princeton leads 14-0.

My original vote (UNI over Southern Illinois) still looks okay. But I talked myself (with input from k-michael) into going with a Rhode Island loss. That paid off. The Rhodies not only lost, they got pummeled, 45-25. The all-too-usual late season meltdown.

And W&M was good enough to upset Villanova. Since the pollsters have not seen fit to rank the Tribe, it will be very interesting to see how far 'Nova drops. The CAA now has three one-loss teams at the top. I would expect W&M to take the place of Rhode Island, which will surely drop out of the top-25.

Wow. Of the six choices, three were indeed upsets. And, for good measure, those were the top three vote-getters. Way to go eGrizzers!