It's almost November and the Big Sky is as messy as possible with probable outcomes for who could punch their post-season ticket. We've got 4 weeks left of regular season play, here's how I see it so far:
Out of the playoffs
Southern Utah, Cal Poly, Idaho State, Idaho, Northern Colorado - All have 5 or more losses, virtually no quality wins, and most are just downright bad teams. Even with some surprise upsets and running the table from anyone here, it's too late for a chance.
Needs a miracle
Portland State - Currently 3-4 with only 2 D1 wins. If they win out they'll beat Poly, Weber, Sac, EWU. So 3 weeks of top-25 wins and finishing 7-4. That OOC of 2 FBS and a D2 game could haunt them.
Win out and get some help
Northern Arizona (3-4) - NAU has a "signature" win against Arizona. Their final 4 games are Idaho, UCD, UM, and Poly. A win-out scenario would give them two top-25 wins and have them at 7-4. They do have 1 bad loss though, UNC. Their other 3 losses are SHSU, USD, and Sac. That UNC loss would hurt on a resume of a 7-4 type of at-large team.
Weber State (3-4) - Even with their big win against EWU I think Weber is going to need another Big Sky team to stumble. Their final 4 games (on paper) are a cakewalk, ISU, PSU, SUU, UNC. They also don't have a "bad" loss so far (Utah, JMU, UCD, MSU). I think their challenge will be if the top-tier teams all finish strong, they could be the odd team out.
In - depending on how you finish
Montana (5-2) - If Montana loses even 1 more game, regardless of who, they should be in at 8-3. If they drop a game to SUU, UNC, NAU that will be a bad loss, but then based on the theory of losing only 1 of the last 4, they will beat the cats who will be top 10 / top 15 and that'll be a solid win to springboard into the playoffs. I do think if Montana finishes 7-4 they're out, especially if Weber State also finishes 7-4. Weber's resume is probably a little stronger in that case. Montana would have the UW win but then presumably no other wins against teams with winning records and a "bad" loss on the board too.
Sacramento State (5-2) - Sac has 4 games to go, UNC, Poly, PSU, and then UCD. If they win out, they win at least a share of the Big Sky, land the auto-bid, and should get a seed for the playoffs. They've got a signature win against Montana too. They're in a similar situation to Montana but probably have a slight advantage over the Griz. If they go 3-1 down the stretch and finish 8-3 they should be in, if they go 2-2... that gets challenging. No bad losses for Sac so far, UNI and Cal.
UC Davis (7-1) - Davis has a bye this week and then finishes @NAU, vs EWU, vs Sac. That's a tough final road but it has them in contention to win a share of the Big Sky if they win out. Davis might get a little nervous if they beat NAU and then lose their last two though. They'd be 8-3, have a win over FBS Tulsa, and a win over Weber as well, but be on a 2-game skid. Could put them on the bubble but I'd think they'd stand a good chance to be in still. Obviously if they win out they're probably a top-5 team and looking at a few home games if they keep rolling.
Eastern Washington (7-1) - EWU has a week off and then hosts MSU, then goes to UCD, and finishes against PSU. It's not the easiest path and the recent Weber loss throws some doubt into the air for EWU. I think they're in really good shape to make the playoffs still. I think they could even go 1-2 down the stretch and still be in a good spot to get in, they have an FBS win, they have an FCS top-25 win - and would add more if they beat MSU and/or UCD.
Montana State (7-1) - MSU has a week off and then goes @EWU, vs UI, @Montana. Obviously a win-out situation has MSU undefeated in the Big Sky and either winning the title outright or sharing it with Sac. MSU has a good win too - at Weber, and their only loss has been @ Wyoming. The EWU and UM games are their chance to have a late-season big win or two that would land them a top playoff seed. I think MSU needs just 1 more win to lock in the playoffs.
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Looking at all of this is why I also think Weber needs some help. If you look at probable finishing records:
EWU 10-1 / 9-2
Sac 9-2 / 8-3
MSU 10-1 / 9-2 / 8-3
UCD 10-1 / 9-2 / 8-3
UM 9-2 / 8-3
If that shakes out somewhere along these paths, how does a 7-4 Weber also get in? Could the Big Sky send 6 schools? Seems unlikely. Now of course if suddenly if any one or more of these teams finishes 7-4 or worse, then that opens the door wide for Weber. It also seems unlikely that a 7-4 Weber team would bump-out an otherwise 8-3 school here as all 5 of these teams have (or will have) a big win to hang their hats on as well.
However, one thing we know for sure, there's plenty of chaos still in store for the playoff picture across the country and in the Big Sky. Presumably in a few weeks this playoff picture could be a little more clear... or hell, it could be even more confusing.
Out of the playoffs
Southern Utah, Cal Poly, Idaho State, Idaho, Northern Colorado - All have 5 or more losses, virtually no quality wins, and most are just downright bad teams. Even with some surprise upsets and running the table from anyone here, it's too late for a chance.
Needs a miracle
Portland State - Currently 3-4 with only 2 D1 wins. If they win out they'll beat Poly, Weber, Sac, EWU. So 3 weeks of top-25 wins and finishing 7-4. That OOC of 2 FBS and a D2 game could haunt them.
Win out and get some help
Northern Arizona (3-4) - NAU has a "signature" win against Arizona. Their final 4 games are Idaho, UCD, UM, and Poly. A win-out scenario would give them two top-25 wins and have them at 7-4. They do have 1 bad loss though, UNC. Their other 3 losses are SHSU, USD, and Sac. That UNC loss would hurt on a resume of a 7-4 type of at-large team.
Weber State (3-4) - Even with their big win against EWU I think Weber is going to need another Big Sky team to stumble. Their final 4 games (on paper) are a cakewalk, ISU, PSU, SUU, UNC. They also don't have a "bad" loss so far (Utah, JMU, UCD, MSU). I think their challenge will be if the top-tier teams all finish strong, they could be the odd team out.
In - depending on how you finish
Montana (5-2) - If Montana loses even 1 more game, regardless of who, they should be in at 8-3. If they drop a game to SUU, UNC, NAU that will be a bad loss, but then based on the theory of losing only 1 of the last 4, they will beat the cats who will be top 10 / top 15 and that'll be a solid win to springboard into the playoffs. I do think if Montana finishes 7-4 they're out, especially if Weber State also finishes 7-4. Weber's resume is probably a little stronger in that case. Montana would have the UW win but then presumably no other wins against teams with winning records and a "bad" loss on the board too.
Sacramento State (5-2) - Sac has 4 games to go, UNC, Poly, PSU, and then UCD. If they win out, they win at least a share of the Big Sky, land the auto-bid, and should get a seed for the playoffs. They've got a signature win against Montana too. They're in a similar situation to Montana but probably have a slight advantage over the Griz. If they go 3-1 down the stretch and finish 8-3 they should be in, if they go 2-2... that gets challenging. No bad losses for Sac so far, UNI and Cal.
UC Davis (7-1) - Davis has a bye this week and then finishes @NAU, vs EWU, vs Sac. That's a tough final road but it has them in contention to win a share of the Big Sky if they win out. Davis might get a little nervous if they beat NAU and then lose their last two though. They'd be 8-3, have a win over FBS Tulsa, and a win over Weber as well, but be on a 2-game skid. Could put them on the bubble but I'd think they'd stand a good chance to be in still. Obviously if they win out they're probably a top-5 team and looking at a few home games if they keep rolling.
Eastern Washington (7-1) - EWU has a week off and then hosts MSU, then goes to UCD, and finishes against PSU. It's not the easiest path and the recent Weber loss throws some doubt into the air for EWU. I think they're in really good shape to make the playoffs still. I think they could even go 1-2 down the stretch and still be in a good spot to get in, they have an FBS win, they have an FCS top-25 win - and would add more if they beat MSU and/or UCD.
Montana State (7-1) - MSU has a week off and then goes @EWU, vs UI, @Montana. Obviously a win-out situation has MSU undefeated in the Big Sky and either winning the title outright or sharing it with Sac. MSU has a good win too - at Weber, and their only loss has been @ Wyoming. The EWU and UM games are their chance to have a late-season big win or two that would land them a top playoff seed. I think MSU needs just 1 more win to lock in the playoffs.
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Looking at all of this is why I also think Weber needs some help. If you look at probable finishing records:
EWU 10-1 / 9-2
Sac 9-2 / 8-3
MSU 10-1 / 9-2 / 8-3
UCD 10-1 / 9-2 / 8-3
UM 9-2 / 8-3
If that shakes out somewhere along these paths, how does a 7-4 Weber also get in? Could the Big Sky send 6 schools? Seems unlikely. Now of course if suddenly if any one or more of these teams finishes 7-4 or worse, then that opens the door wide for Weber. It also seems unlikely that a 7-4 Weber team would bump-out an otherwise 8-3 school here as all 5 of these teams have (or will have) a big win to hang their hats on as well.
However, one thing we know for sure, there's plenty of chaos still in store for the playoff picture across the country and in the Big Sky. Presumably in a few weeks this playoff picture could be a little more clear... or hell, it could be even more confusing.
