Commentary
Despite the identical overall records, this one is hard to figure. Villanova, undefeated in conference, struggled at home against winless Albany. But Rhode Island is coming off an unexpected loss at Towson (3-3). A second conference loss would hurt, so they should be highly motivated. We’ll see.
Missouri State bounced back nicely from their road loss at Youngstown State. But at this point, they can’t afford another conference loss. Thus, I would expect them to come out on fire. Unlike some, I do not see NDSU as vulnerable … their only close game was at North Dakota. Still, “on any given Saturday.”
Lots of factors against Delaware in this one after a bad loss at Stony Brook (2-5) … their second conference loss. Meanwhile, JMU won fairly handily at Richmond. Perhaps being at home will give Delaware enough of an advantage to manage the upset.
After their loss to South Dakota, Northern Iowa will be desperate for a win. Even they might not be able to fight past three losses in conference. But we all know how tough SDSU is, especially at home. This is another one where you fall back on … “on any given Saturday.”
Not much to be said about the Harvard-Princeton matchup. It’s the “battle of the unbeatens!” Although Princeton is ranked and Harvard isn’t, I’d rate this one a pickum’.
The five top teams in the SoCon all have one conference loss … and Furman and ETSU are two of them. Neither can afford a second conference loss at this stage of the season. Furman is coming off a decent home win, while ETSU had a close loss at Chattanooga. There’s not a lot to choose between the two, even though ETSU is ranked and Furman isn’t. Home field advantage might be enough for an “upset.”
On their records, the Jacksonville State at Sam Houston game seems an unlikely place for an upset. However, it’s worth remembering that the Gamecock’s three losses have been to FBS Alabama-Birmingham, UT Martin (currently ranked #13), and Kennesaw State (currently ranked #12). Also, of course, they upset Florida State. Admittedly, FSU (2-4) is a sad FBS team, but that win is not to be overlooked. Meanwhile, Sam Houston has feasted on a pretty weak schedule (cumulative record 11-19). That shows in their Sagarin SOS of 45.68 (ranked 193). By comparison, J-State’s SOS is 56.28 (ranked 138).
Columbia is coming off a decent win over Penn, while Dartmouth pulled off what was considered an upset at ranked New Hampshire. Columbia’s one loss was to Princeton, which Dartmouth plays later in the season. Neither has played Harvard yet, so there’s not much else to compare in their records. I’d be inclined to call this one another pickum’, except that Dartmouth might be still be distracted by their win at New Hampshire.
Towson is coming off an upset, at home, of then #12 Rhode Island, while William & Mary lost at Maine (2-4). Both are (2-1) in conference, however, so neither is out of the running. My thought is that this one could go either way.