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STATS FCS Poll Guesses (Sept 26)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Likely to be a considerable stirring of the pot with eight ranked teams losing. Of course, three of those were to FBS opponents and another to a ranked FCS. But even those losses will bring some movement.

Guess, Team (record), [Current Rank]
#1 SHSU (3-0) [1]
#2 SDSU (3-0) [2]
#3 James Madison (3-0) [3]
#4 Montana (3-0) [4]
#5 North Dakota State (3-0) [5]
#6 EWU (4-0) [6]
#7 Southern Illinois (3-1) [7]
#8 Delaware (2-1) [8]
#9 North Dakota (3-0) [10]
#10 UC Davis (4-0) [12]
#11 Montana State (3-1) [13]
#12 ETSU (4-0) [15]
#13 SE Louisiana (2-1) [16]
#14 Villanova (3-1) [11]
#15 Jacksonville St (2-2) [9]
#16 Northern Iowa (2-1) [17]
#17 Missouri State (2-1) [18]
#18 VMI (3-1) [22]
#19 Kennesaw State (2-1) [23]
#20 Weber State (1-3) [14]
#21 Rhode Island (3-0) NR
#22 UT Martin (3-1) NR
#23 Incarnate Word (3-1) NR
#24 Austin Peay (2-2) [19]
#25 New Hampshire (3-1) [21]

NR Monmouth (2-2) [20]
NR Richmond (2-2) [24]
NR Cent. Arkansas (1-3) [25]

The game between Villanova and Penn State was a bit more one-sided than the final score suggests: The Wildcats scored two touchdowns in the 4th quarter when Penn State started playing a lot of subs. A three-spot drop seems about right.

Jacksonville State, however, lost at home to an unranked opponent, so I expect them to drop at lot. On the other hand, UT-Martin has a damn good record, with their only loss to a decent FBS opponent. (Western Kentucky is 1-2, but their two losses were by a total of 5 points.) Since I expect several teams to drop out, I decided the pollsters might reward Skyhawks with a spot in the top-25.

It’s hard to say how far Weber State will drop, since they lost to a high-ranked opponent. But they’ve now lost two in a row and that 1-3 record looks highly suspect. I ended up using my usual formula, but I would not at all be surprised to see the Wildcats drop entirely out of the top-25.

Austin Peay is another team that lost to an unranked opponent. I believe they’ll hang on (barely). However, they might drop one more spot, to #25. That would flip them with New Hampshire. Making UNH #24 would be okay, but the pollsters might not be that kind, given how they were obliterated by Pittsburgh (77-7, in case you missed it).

Monmouth at #20 always seemed suspect to me. Thus, their bad loss (45-15) to unranked Holy Cross is apt to kick them out of the top-25.

Richmond lost to a pretty good FBS team, and Central Arkansas lost to the #1 FCS team. That might normally buy them some slack. However, when you’re sitting at the tail end of the list, you simply cannot afford to lose a game. Pollsters will generally downgrade them just enough points to ease them out.

With those three dropouts, where will the pollsters look for replacements? I’ve already suggested that they will reward UT Martin with a spot. Rhode Island, which was idle, was the top “Other” vote getter in the last poll, so I expect that they will move up enough to be in.

The third choice is more problematic. Outguessing the pollsters is a bit of a trick, but I finally decided that Incarnate Word (3-1) might just deserve a look. They pounded McNeese (admittedly, not a very good team), and won handily against a pretty good Prairie View A&M (3-1) team. Their other win was the “upset” of FBS Texas State. Their only loss was in overtime, by a FG at Youngstown State. We’ll see.
 
An undefeated East Tennessee may rise a spot or two higher than you guess. They also hold an FBS win in their quiver.
 
Grizzlies1982 said:
An undefeated East Tennessee may rise a spot or two higher than you guess. They also hold an FBS win in their quiver.
That 4-0 record does look pretty impressive. Still, I'm not sure a win over pathetic Vanderbilt buys them a lot.

However, to get right down to the nitty-gritty, I do not expect my guesses for this week to be all that great, overall. With eight ranked teams being idle, that means nearly half (8 of 17) of the teams that actually played ... lost. From that, I can see all kinds of wild swings in the rankings. Oh, I'll do fine in the top-10, I think, but after that: Who knows. ;)
 
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