Beat the Spread ("Upsets")? Mostly FCS

Get the low down on Griz/FCS Football

So … who beats the spread?

Poll ended at Sun Sep 20, 2020 9:07 pm

Campbell at Coastal Carolina [26]
3
18%
Austin Peay at #13 Cincinnati [33.5]
0
No votes
Liberty at Western Kentucky [14.5]
0
No votes
Stephen F. Austin at UTSA [14.5]
7
41%
Florida Atlantic at Ga Southern [1.5]
1
6%
The Citadel at #1 Clemson [45.5]
2
12%
Abilene Christian at UTEP [4.5]
4
24%
 
Total votes: 17
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IdaGriz01
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The comparable thread got a fair amount of interest last week, although not a lot of votes. But it was posted late. Counting the Campbell at CC game on Friday, there are five FCS vs FBS matchups coming on Sept 18 and 19. That didn’t seem like enough so I’m throwing in a couple of matchups with teams we can at least remember being in FCS.

As with last week's poll, the home teams are the favorites and the numbers in brackets show how much they are favored. Those number may change, but hopefully not by a lot. One choice allowed, but you can change your mind.
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IdaGriz01
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Actually having a tough time making my pick.

Campbell proved that they can play, losing their chance to win only on what I (and others) considered a terrible no-call. Tempting to pick them to beat that 26-point spread. But Coastal C still has a lot to prove and “they’ve been warned.”

That close call at home against Campbell could motivate Ga Southern to play better. But you wonder how good they really are, especially if a lot of their 1’s still don’t play. Tempting.

SF Austin can probably still score points (they averaged over 35 per game last year, as I recall). Easy to see them staying with UT-San Antonio in a scoring match.

Abilene Christian was mediocre last year, but UTEP was awful. They beat SFA only by 10 in a home game on Sept 5 and were obliterated by Texas last week. And the UT game could have been way worse than the 59-3 final score … the announcers were having a hard time identifying the Texas players, they were so far down the depth chart.

Decisions, decisions ...
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IdaGriz01
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Looked in to see whether or not Ga Southern would get some players back for their next game. Not sure about that, but apparently Florida Atlantic is approaching a threshold on positive Covid results. Right now, they exect to play, but that could change at nay moment.

Sigh. "It is what it is."
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For HS fans it looks like the Dillon at Hamilton game is being shown on SWX tonight at 7:00. Sorry for the interruption Ida.
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AZGrizFan
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Citadel +45.5 for all the money I have.
Guns kill people like spoons make you fat.
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IdaGriz01
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AZGrizFan wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:18 am
Citadel +45.5 for all the money I have.
Yeah, that one got my attention too. (ESPN line is now 45.0, BTW). The question is probably not: "Could Clemson lay 46 or more points on The Citadel?" The answer to that is almost certainly "yes." The proper question is: "Would the Tigers lay that many points on an opponent?" Answer ... probably not.

Edit: Upon re-reading, not the best way of putting it. Obviously, I mean: "Could/would Clemson deliberately run up the spread to 46 points or beyond?" My answer is still "probably no" ...I don't see Dabo Swinney as that kind of coach. Could still happen, but it won't be because they'll keep their top players out there.
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AZGrizFan
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IdaGriz01 wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:35 am
AZGrizFan wrote:
Fri Sep 18, 2020 11:18 am
Citadel +45.5 for all the money I have.
Yeah, that one got my attention too. (ESPN line is now 45.0, BTW). The question is probably not: "Could Clemson lay 46 or more points on The Citadel?" The answer to that is almost certainly "yes." The proper question is: "Would the Tigers lay that many points on an opponent?" Answer ... probably not.

Edit: Upon re-reading, not the best way of putting it. Obviously, I mean: "Could/would Clemson deliberately run up the spread to 46 points or beyond?" My answer is still "probably no" ...I don't see Dabo Swinney as that kind of coach. Could still happen, but it won't be because they'll keep their top players out there.
I just think with Citadels clock-eating offense, Clemson would have to score on damn near every possession to get to 50 points, and hold Citadel scoreless....I don’t think either of those things happen.

witness: Look at the Citadel/Alabama game a couple years ago...sure, it ended 50-17, but it was 10-10 at the half.
And that was a shitty 4-6 Citadel team. They were much better last year.
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IdaGriz01
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So far, the first game ended with a beat on the spread. Coastal won, but by "only" 22 points ... well under the spread of 26-27.5. Penny-ante stuff for the books, I imagine.
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IdaGriz01
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The most interesting matchup right now is Liberty at Western Kentucky. The Hilltoppers were favored at home (14.5-15.0), but are currently losing, 30-24, with about 3 min left.

Edit: Went final that way. Flames not only beat the spread ... they won :) .
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IdaGriz01
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Had to sneak this in: Navy just completed the "biggest comeback in its history." Down 24 at the half, they won on a last second FG, 27-24. GO NAVY!

(Feel bad, in a way. I like to see Tulane do well ;) .)
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DuCharme
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Oops. That was quick!
Fumbled Citadel pitch... scooped and scored.
It’s now 28-0.
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AZGrizFan
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DuCharme wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:42 pm
Oops. That was quick!
Fumbled Citadel pitch... scooped and scored.
It’s now 28-0.

Welp....my prediction ain’t goin’ so hot.... :lol: :lol:
Guns kill people like spoons make you fat.
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IdaGriz01
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AZGrizFan wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:43 pm
DuCharme wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:42 pm
Oops. That was quick!
Fumbled Citadel pitch... scooped and scored.
It’s now 28-0.
Welp....my prediction ain’t goin’ so hot.... :lol: :lol:
Your reasoning seemed sound, but The Citadel isn't doing its part. To burn clock, you need to make first downs ... and their run game is getting totally stuffed.
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DuCharme
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Clemson, 49-0.
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DuCharme
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GSU-FAU was postponed. FAU contacted GSU yesterday to say they wouldn’t be playing.
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IdaGriz01
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DuCharme wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:10 pm
Clemson, 49-0.
Seemed like a decent spread to go against, but Clemson totally shut down Citadel's running game. Couldn't even burn clock.
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IdaGriz01
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DuCharme wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 5:13 pm
GSU-FAU was postponed. FAU contacted GSU yesterday to say they wouldn’t be playing.
Yeah, ESPN was on top of that. But I discovered (the hard way) that you can't screw with a poll without losing earlier votes. (Maybe there's a way to do it, but I have not figured that out.)
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IdaGriz01
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The half-point saved my pick. UTSA was favored by 14.5 over SF Austin and "only" lost by 24-10. Thought this woulld be a much higher-scoring game.
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AZGrizFan
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IdaGriz01 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:59 pm
AZGrizFan wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:43 pm


Welp....my prediction ain’t goin’ so hot.... :lol: :lol:
Your reasoning seemed sound, but The Citadel isn't doing its part. To burn clock, you need to make first downs ... and their run game is getting totally stuffed.
The one scoop and score killed me. :twisted: :twisted:
Guns kill people like spoons make you fat.
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SoldierGriz
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AZGrizFan wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 7:23 pm
IdaGriz01 wrote:
Sat Sep 19, 2020 2:59 pm

Your reasoning seemed sound, but The Citadel isn't doing its part. To burn clock, you need to make first downs ... and their run game is getting totally stuffed.
The one scoop and score killed me. :twisted: :twisted:
Was it all the money you have?

Sheesh...tough day for AZ.
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