IdaGriz01
Well-known member
There weren’t an extreme number of upsets on Saturday – just six – but two of them were against teams in the top-10. At the other end, two low-ranked teams also lost, so they’ll be gone from the next top-25. That means that, overall, my guesses were fairly straightforward … with a few points of minor intrigue.
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Ranking]
#1 NDSU (10-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (9-1) [2]
#3 Weber State [3]
#4 Northern Iowa (7-3) [5]
#5 Montana (8-2) [6]
#6 SDSU (7-3) [4]
#7 Sacramento State [8]
#8 Furman (7-3) [9]
#9 Illinois State [11]
#10 MSU (7-3) [12]
#11 Dartmouth (8-0) [13]
#12 Kennesaw State [15]
#13 Princeton (7-1) [10]
#14 Florida A&M (8-1) [16]
#15 SE Missouri State [17]
#16 Villanova (7-3) [18]
#17 Central Arkansas (7-3) [7]
#18 Monmouth (8-2) [19]
#19 Central Connecticut (9-1) [20]
#20 Towson (6-4) [21]
#21 Wofford (6-3) [24]
#22 Austin Peay (7-3) NR
#23 NC A&T (6-3) [14]
#24 Nicholls (6-4) [25]
#25 SE Louisiana (6-3) NR
NR North Dakota (5-4) [22]
NR UNH (5-4) [23]
Of course, we have to start with #4 South Dakota State. The game was fairly close (SDSU had a one-point lead at the half), until #11 Illinois pulled away in the 4th quarter. Since they lost to a ranked team (and it is the MVFC), I thought about just trading places between them and #5 Northern Iowa. However, two factors changed that slightly. First, the Jacks suffered the loss on their home field. More importantly, UNI and the Griz were just 5 points apart – out of over 3000 – in last week’s poll. That made them basically interchangeable … so I dropped SDSU behind both. Obviously, it would not be a huge surprise if the Panthers move up one and the Griz stay the same.
Next up (down, actually ), we have #7 Central Arkansas, which also lost at home. Worse yet, they got absolutely pummeled, 34-0, by an unranked Southeast Louisiana team. I’m guessing they will be hammered really hard … by about ten spots. In past years, that would seem like a lot, but this year the pollsters have really been punishing teams for such bad losses. (Back to this point in a moment.)
The loss by #10 Princeton to #13 Dartmouth should not hurt them too bad. Still, the Big Green was pretty much in control all the way, so I see the Tigers dropping about three spots.
The loss by #14 North Carolina A&T was another bad one (very bad ). They were on the road, but Morgan State (2-8) is a really terrible team. The Bear’s only other win was against Delaware State (2-8), another really pathetic team. I’m guessing about a nine-spot loss. It might have been more, but at least the final score was fairly close (22-16). But, frankly, it would not surprise me at all if the Aggies dropped completely out of the top-25.
The surprisingly close loss by #22 North Dakota to #3 Weber State presented a bit of a problem. After all, UND led the game for awhile. But they did end up losing, and being at #22 leaves no room for error (especially since their record is now 5-4). So I believe they will drop out of the top-25.
Same goes for #23 New Hampshire … an easy call since they got bombed by #2 James Madison (54-16, in case you missed that score).
To fill one of the open spots, the obvious choice was Austin Peay, which won handily and was the highest vote-getter among “Others receiving votes” in last week’s poll. Because of their nice 7-3 record, I decided to slot them in at #22.
As it happened, the Governors beat UT-Martin, the second highest “Other” last week. That might have opened the door for Sam Houston State. However, I had to factor in the way the pollsters now seem to be rewarding unranked teams that knock off ranked opponents (especially highly rank opponents). Now, there’s no way they can reward pitiful Morgan State with a ranking … be interesting if the Bears do get a few token votes. But SE Louisiana is a pretty good team, and they received 55 votes in last week’s poll. Their 6-3 record fits in very nicely where I put them at #25, and it would not surprise if they slotted in a bit higher.
If my guesses are right at the top, that will put four Big Sky teams in the top-10. Has that ever happened before?
Guess, Team (Record), [Current Ranking]
#1 NDSU (10-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (9-1) [2]
#3 Weber State [3]
#4 Northern Iowa (7-3) [5]
#5 Montana (8-2) [6]
#6 SDSU (7-3) [4]
#7 Sacramento State [8]
#8 Furman (7-3) [9]
#9 Illinois State [11]
#10 MSU (7-3) [12]
#11 Dartmouth (8-0) [13]
#12 Kennesaw State [15]
#13 Princeton (7-1) [10]
#14 Florida A&M (8-1) [16]
#15 SE Missouri State [17]
#16 Villanova (7-3) [18]
#17 Central Arkansas (7-3) [7]
#18 Monmouth (8-2) [19]
#19 Central Connecticut (9-1) [20]
#20 Towson (6-4) [21]
#21 Wofford (6-3) [24]
#22 Austin Peay (7-3) NR
#23 NC A&T (6-3) [14]
#24 Nicholls (6-4) [25]
#25 SE Louisiana (6-3) NR
NR North Dakota (5-4) [22]
NR UNH (5-4) [23]
Of course, we have to start with #4 South Dakota State. The game was fairly close (SDSU had a one-point lead at the half), until #11 Illinois pulled away in the 4th quarter. Since they lost to a ranked team (and it is the MVFC), I thought about just trading places between them and #5 Northern Iowa. However, two factors changed that slightly. First, the Jacks suffered the loss on their home field. More importantly, UNI and the Griz were just 5 points apart – out of over 3000 – in last week’s poll. That made them basically interchangeable … so I dropped SDSU behind both. Obviously, it would not be a huge surprise if the Panthers move up one and the Griz stay the same.
Next up (down, actually ), we have #7 Central Arkansas, which also lost at home. Worse yet, they got absolutely pummeled, 34-0, by an unranked Southeast Louisiana team. I’m guessing they will be hammered really hard … by about ten spots. In past years, that would seem like a lot, but this year the pollsters have really been punishing teams for such bad losses. (Back to this point in a moment.)
The loss by #10 Princeton to #13 Dartmouth should not hurt them too bad. Still, the Big Green was pretty much in control all the way, so I see the Tigers dropping about three spots.
The loss by #14 North Carolina A&T was another bad one (very bad ). They were on the road, but Morgan State (2-8) is a really terrible team. The Bear’s only other win was against Delaware State (2-8), another really pathetic team. I’m guessing about a nine-spot loss. It might have been more, but at least the final score was fairly close (22-16). But, frankly, it would not surprise me at all if the Aggies dropped completely out of the top-25.
The surprisingly close loss by #22 North Dakota to #3 Weber State presented a bit of a problem. After all, UND led the game for awhile. But they did end up losing, and being at #22 leaves no room for error (especially since their record is now 5-4). So I believe they will drop out of the top-25.
Same goes for #23 New Hampshire … an easy call since they got bombed by #2 James Madison (54-16, in case you missed that score).
To fill one of the open spots, the obvious choice was Austin Peay, which won handily and was the highest vote-getter among “Others receiving votes” in last week’s poll. Because of their nice 7-3 record, I decided to slot them in at #22.
As it happened, the Governors beat UT-Martin, the second highest “Other” last week. That might have opened the door for Sam Houston State. However, I had to factor in the way the pollsters now seem to be rewarding unranked teams that knock off ranked opponents (especially highly rank opponents). Now, there’s no way they can reward pitiful Morgan State with a ranking … be interesting if the Bears do get a few token votes. But SE Louisiana is a pretty good team, and they received 55 votes in last week’s poll. Their 6-3 record fits in very nicely where I put them at #25, and it would not surprise if they slotted in a bit higher.
If my guesses are right at the top, that will put four Big Sky teams in the top-10. Has that ever happened before?