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FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Oct 13)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Wild and crazy weekend! Of the ranked teams that played (three had byes), HALF lost. It’s going to be really interesting to see how the pollsters handle this. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the blood bath extended down into the “Others” receiving votes: Of the top six “Others,” half of those also lost.

Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (6-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (6-1) [2]
#3 SDSU (5-1) [3]
#4 Weber State (4-2) [4]
#5 Kennesaw State (5-1) [7]
#6 Montana (5-1) [8]
#7 Furman (4-2) [11]
#8 Nicholls (4-2) [12]
#9 Villanova (6-1) [5]
#10 Illinois State (4-2) [14]
#11 Montana State (5-2) [6]
#12 North Carolina A&T (4-1) [13]
#13 Central Arkansas (4-2) [16]
#14 Northern Iowa (3-3) [10]
#15 Towson (3-3) [9]
#16 Jacksonville State (5-2) [17]
#17 Sacramento State (4-2) NR
#18 Princeton (4-0) [21]
#19 UC Davis (3-4) [24]
#20 Austin Peay (4-2) NR
#21 Delaware (3-3) [15]
#22 UNH (4-2) NR
#23 Youngstown State (4-2) [19]
#24 Dartmouth (4-0) NR
#25 Stony Brook (4-3) [22]

NR SE Missouri State (3-3) [20]
NR SE Louisiana (3-3) [23]
NR Maine (2-4) [18]
NR Sam Houston State (4-3) [25]

The whole thing is such a mess, the pollsters might actually have to pay attention to the comparative records of each team. Whether or not they do that is, to say the least, problematic. And my “rules” get pretty shaky when there are that many losers bunched close together. But here goes.

The top is easier. I project Villanova to only drop four spots after losing to the #2 team. They might only drop three. I dropped the kitties five spots, since they lost to an unranked opponent, on their home field. I would normally drop them one more, but I figure Sac State was “almost” ranked last week so they’ll get some credit for that.

Northern Iowa will most like drop about four spots. They were playing the #1 team, but they also got pummeled rather badly. But, like ‘Nova, I could see the pollsters only dropping them three. I did take Towson down six because they lost decisively to unranked Albany. (And Albany did not receive any votes in last week’s poll.) My guess also has Delaware dropping six spots. They might fall even more because Elon beat them like a drum.

Then things go totally crazy. Of the eight bottom teams in the top-25, six lost. Ouch! At the very bottom, it was fairly easy to bump Sam Houston State. They lost in overtime to an okay Lamar team (which is now 4-3), but they were on their home field.

Then I had to mix my normal rules with a look at the season records for the various teams that lost (all to unranked opponents). With their 4-3 record, I decided that Stony Brook might just barely hang on. Partly that’s CAA bias. But I also have to take into account how favorably the pollsters seem to view New Hampshire. You’ll note that I expect the Wildcats to move into the top-25.

CAA bias or no, Maine has to go, even though they came into the weekend at #18. That 2-4 record sticks out like a sore thumb. That left Southeast Missouri State and Southeastern Louisiana, both now 3-3. Austin Peay did not exactly crush SEMO, but I figure the pollsters might just “trade places” -- dropping SEMO out and slotting Peay in where SEMO was in last week’s poll.

All told, I dropped four teams out of the top-25, so I needed two more “replacements.” Sac State was an easy call since they were the top “Other” vote getter last week. But where to put them? I finally slotted them in fairly high because of their 4-2 record. (They could get in even higher if the pollsters recall that the Hornet’s two losses were to FBS opponents.) The number-two “Other” vote getter last week was Dartmouth, so I figure they’ll finally crack the top-25 after the way they pounded Yale.

Honestly, I have no notion of how well my guesses will hold up. But this is my story, and I’m sticking with it. :lol:
 
NikeGrizz said:
don’t think villanova falls more than a spot or 2
You could well be right.

But here's the thing: Villanova was one of only two undefeated teams from the stronger FCS conferences going into the weekend. Yet the pollsters put them at only #5, behind three teams with one or two losses. That seems odd, given that they are a CAA team, so I think the loss is going to push them down more than "a spot or 2."
 
retiredpopo said:
we should be #4 no less than 5.
No room at the inn. At this stage of the season, the pollsters (collectively) very seldom change the order of ranked teams that keep winning. I cannot imagine them jumping a bye team (the Griz) over teams that played and won.
 
AZGrizFan said:
Kennesaw State is a f***[*] joke at 5.
I totally agree.

Blame that damn pre-season poll, where K-State was ranked #10. Since then, their only loss was by a field goal at FBS Kent State ... which was seen as a plus for them. Other than that, they keep winning. It apparently escapes the pollsters notice that two of those wins were against NAIA opponents.
 
Griz are way better than Kennesaw State.

Their games
Sat. 8/31 vs. Point University W 59 - 0 (Division 2)
Sat. 9/7 at Kent State L 23 - 26 (3-3)
Sat. 9/14 at Alabama State W 42 - 7 (3-3)
Sat. 9/21 at Missouri State W 35 - 24 (1-4)
Sat. 9/28 vs. Reinhardt W 31 - 7 (Division 2)
Sat. 10/12 vs. Charleston Southern W 45 - 23 (1-5)

A close loss to a very average FBS team :roll:
2 wins over Division 2 teams :shock:
Three other wins vs a combined 5 and 12 group :eek:

And this week.... brace yourself.
They play 0-6 Presbyterian who probably could not beat Sentinel High School :eek:
 
Paytonlives said:
Griz are way better than Kennesaw State.

Their games
Sat. 8/31 vs. Point University W 59 - 0 (Division 2)
Sat. 9/7 at Kent State L 23 - 26 (3-3)
Sat. 9/14 at Alabama State W 42 - 7 (3-3)
Sat. 9/21 at Missouri State W 35 - 24 (1-4)
Sat. 9/28 vs. Reinhardt W 31 - 7 (Division 2)
Sat. 10/12 vs. Charleston Southern W 45 - 23 (1-5)

A close loss to a very average FBS team :roll:
2 wins over Division 2 teams :shock:
Three other wins vs a combined 5 and 12 group :eek:

And this week.... brace yourself.
They play 0-6 Presbyterian who probably could not beat Sentinel High School :eek:
Bad as it is, you still give them too much credit. Point U and Reinhardt are both NAIA, not NCAA D-II. I finally looked them up individually because I could not find their records in any of the "normal" places.

Edit: And NO, those don't qualify as wins for playoff consideration. K-State pretty much has to win the conference auto-bid. To my recollection, their weak-a** conference has never received an at-large bid.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
Wild and crazy weekend! Of the ranked teams that played (three had byes), HALF lost. It’s going to be really interesting to see how the pollsters handle this. The situation is further complicated by the fact that the blood bath extended down into the “Others” receiving votes: Of the top six “Others,” half of those also lost.

Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
#1 NDSU (6-0) [1]
#2 James Madison (6-1) [2]
#3 SDSU (5-1) [3]
#4 Weber State (4-2) [4]
#5 Kennesaw State (5-1) [7]
#6 Montana (5-1) [8]
#7 Furman (4-2) [11]
#8 Nicholls (4-2) [12]
#9 Villanova (6-1) [5]
#10 Illinois State (4-2) [14]
#11 Montana State (5-2) [6]
#12 North Carolina A&T (4-1) [13]
#13 Central Arkansas (4-2) [16]
#14 Northern Iowa (3-3) [10]
#15 Towson (3-3) [9]
#16 Jacksonville State (5-2) [17]
#17 Sacramento State (4-2) NR
#18 Princeton (4-0) [21]
#19 UC Davis (3-4) [24]
#20 Austin Peay (4-2) NR
#21 Delaware (3-3) [15]
#22 UNH (4-2) NR
#23 Youngstown State (4-2) [19]
#24 Dartmouth (4-0) NR
#25 Stony Brook (4-3) [22]

NR SE Missouri State (3-3) [20]
NR SE Louisiana (3-3) [23]
NR Maine (2-4) [18]
NR Sam Houston State (4-3) [25]

The whole thing is such a mess, the pollsters might actually have to pay attention to the comparative records of each team. Whether or not they do that is, to say the least, problematic. And my “rules” get pretty shaky when there are that many losers bunched close together. But here goes.

The top is easier. I project Villanova to only drop four spots after losing to the #2 team. They might only drop three. I dropped the kitties five spots, since they lost to an unranked opponent, on their home field. I would normally drop them one more, but I figure Sac State was “almost” ranked last week so they’ll get some credit for that.

Northern Iowa will most like drop about four spots. They were playing the #1 team, but they also got pummeled rather badly. But, like ‘Nova, I could see the pollsters only dropping them three. I did take Towson down six because they lost decisively to unranked Albany. (And Albany did not receive any votes in last week’s poll.) My guess also has Delaware dropping six spots. They might fall even more because Elon beat them like a drum.

Then things go totally crazy. Of the eight bottom teams in the top-25, six lost. Ouch! At the very bottom, it was fairly easy to bump Sam Houston State. They lost in overtime to an okay Lamar team (which is now 4-3), but they were on their home field.

Then I had to mix my normal rules with a look at the season records for the various teams that lost (all to unranked opponents). With their 4-3 record, I decided that Stony Brook might just barely hang on. Partly that’s CAA bias. But I also have to take into account how favorably the pollsters seem to view New Hampshire. You’ll note that I expect the Wildcats to move into the top-25.

CAA bias or no, Maine has to go, even though they came into the weekend at #18. That 2-4 record sticks out like a sore thumb. That left Southeast Missouri State and Southeastern Louisiana, both now 3-3. Austin Peay did not exactly crush SEMO, but I figure the pollsters might just “trade places” -- dropping SEMO out and slotting Peay in where SEMO was in last week’s poll.

All told, I dropped four teams out of the top-25, so I needed two more “replacements.” Sac State was an easy call since they were the top “Other” vote getter last week. But where to put them? I finally slotted them in fairly high because of their 4-2 record. (They could get in even higher if the pollsters recall that the Hornet’s two losses were to FBS opponents.) The number-two “Other” vote getter last week was Dartmouth, so I figure they’ll finally crack the top-25 after the way they pounded Yale.

Honestly, I have no notion of how well my guesses will hold up. But this is my story, and I’m sticking with it. :lol:

Really great poll! Nice to see you moved Sac St up the 9 spots! Very deserving! Dartmouth and Princeton getting recognition is awesome! I know the Griz won’t get it this week, but I think #4 as well, followed by Weber and then Kennesaw! Kennesaw has an 8 man football schedule! They may still be good with their running game, but that schedule is awful! UNI, Towson, and Delaware will be there, but only because there’s
no one else. You may be spot on on this poll! Thanks.
 
The Kenn St over Missouri st is interesting too. They won 35-24. Well South Dakota just dominated Missouri St and we beat USD rather easily. Only common opponent I could point to.
 
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