• Hi Guest, want to participate in the discussions, keep track of read/unread posts and more? Create your free account and increase the benefits of your eGriz.com experience today!

2019 Record - expectations and reality

HookedonGriz

Well-known member
DONOR
Thought this would be a good thread to talk some Griz football as we were discussing it a bit in the EGriz Club. What are your 2019 expectations of this team? What does your heart and head tell you they’ll achieve?

I am usually a very optimistic poster, but I also try to be very realistic. There’s been some talk that it’s officially “put up or shut up time” and that this team needs to get 8 wins and make the playoffs and anything short is a failed experiment with Hauck. Then there’s the camp that says you need to give Hauck at least 3-4 years to rebuild this thing in its entirety before you can get too crazy either way.

I’m more in the camp that we need to give Hauck (or any coach for that matter) at least 3 years to see what we’ve really got. I don’t think even the most gifted coaches out there can easily turn a team around and build an entirely new culture within 2 seasons. That’s a rare event. Saying that’s what needs to happpen is being pretty unrealistic in my opinion.

Especially this year, looking at our schedule, I think we need to be pretty realistic that 2019 is going to be a very big challenge. The Griz look to have easily the toughest schedule in the Big Sky if not one of the toughest in all of FCS. It’s a 12 game grind this year, where the Griz take on an FBS powerhouse in Oregon as well as play ALL the top ranked finishers from the Big Sky (where most Big Sky teams only play 1 or 2). Take s look at this thing:

@ South Dakota - MVFC team also trying to rebuild (4-7 last year)

North Alabama - were an independent last year and went 7-3 and will be a member of Big South this season

@Oregon - yea, that one should be fun.

Monmouth - finished second to playoff team Kennesaw St in the Big South with a record of 8-3

@UC Davis - will be a top 10 FCS team, went 10-2

Idaho St - finished 4th in Big Sky last year

@Sac St - 2-8 last year

EWU - will be a top 10 FCS team, finished 12-3 last year

@PSU - finished tied for 9th in big sky with 4-7 record

Idaho - same as above

Weber St - will be top 10 FCS team and finished at 10-3

Montana St - could easily be a top 15 team (their schedule is pretty weak this year), finished 8-5 last year

So in looking at all of this, and being very realistic with where this team is, I am not getting my hopes up too much beyond maybe a 6-6 record. I’d call a 7-5 record as surpassing my expectations.

What say you!
 
Having a winning schedule and playing cupcake teams to get there is meaningless. There has been much said about upgrading the schedule and not scheduling poor games for a WGS win. Here's the chance to prove that theory. Home field will be a big plus, that means getting back to your seats for the second half kickoff(except when fatboy and Reinell square off at his tailgate). Fans need to be as committed as the players and staff. 6-6 is baseline, and unacceptable. Davis, EWU and Bozo will be tough. 8-4 probable. Nobody expects a win in Eugene, but the rest of the games are do-able. If I'm right, 11-1 is possible, but Hauck will have to make some tough calls to get it done. Hopefully, he has flushed all Stitt-era non-hackers from the team.
 
Anything short of 9 wins is a bust. It’s not put up or shut up but it is to start to show Montana football is returning. We aren’t gonna win the big sky but it’s very clear it’s time to stop losing to team we have superior talent than. We should take 2 of the 4 big BigSky games. Montana year in and out has more talent than 75% of the bigsky, so why aren’t we a top 2,3 bigsky team every year. Last year was an exception and Bobby will tell you that. We probably weren’t a top team skill wise with so many young players. This year, we should be on the cusp of top bsc talent but not quite there. 8 wins is probably suitable but gonna get some groans still. 10 wins would be an over achevment.

Expectation:
3-1 OOC
Split: EWU, WSU, MSU, UCD
Win the rest

6 wins and Hauck may feel the tide turning against him. 7 gets the same feeling as this year. 8 gets still growing support. 9 gets more excitement and support. 10 and the Griz would be back on track to who we should be. 11...hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahah. 12 I died
 
Honestly I expect this team to do better out of the simple sake that they didn't graduate much, no changes in coaching staff, there's more experience, and better depth. Yeah there's concerns in many spots, I'm not ignoring that.

Additionally it seems that as of lately, some of the top teams in the Big Sky usually fall flat the next year. I would assume that because of the way the teams have been built and coached that Weber and EWU would avoid that fate. ISU and UCD we'll have to see. In theory they should be good again, but we've seen teams like UND, SUU, and PSU go from good to awful in a single season.

Looking at the Griz schedule it's tough to really gauge at this point. One would think that they should go 3-1 in OOC, but nothings a given, both Monmouth and N. Alabama had good records, despite weaker overall schedules. USD is in the toughest football conference in the FCS.

In-conference if things generally stay constant;

- Sac, PSU, Idaho the Griz should be favored to win.
- ISU at home Griz should be favored slightly or a toss-up.
- MSU, WSU, EWU, UCD would presumably all be favored

So straight chalk you're at 7-5.

One could go either way here, if the Griz can steal 1 or 2 from the 4 games where they aren't favored then they're in great shape. On the other hand, they could also drop a game they should win, like one of those OOC games or a road game (@PSU).

Keep in mind that with exception to 1 game, the Griz lead in the 4th quarter of every loss. Additionally as has been pointed out, those losses usually hinged on one moment or series that could have tipped it the other way. I think a lot of this is due to the youth and thin ranks of the team, many of which return with more experience and as generally better players. I also like that ISU, EWU, and Weber at here in Missoula.

If I were to put a range on the amount of wins right now I'd say 7 or 8. I think I could talk myself in to 9 wins... but that would require some more pieces to come together with the progression of this team and presumably a few expected tough matchups on our schedule to totally fall apart.
 
BWahlberg said:
Honestly I expect this team to do better out of the simple sake that they didn't graduate much, no changes in coaching staff, there's more experience, and better depth. Yeah there's concerns in many spots, I'm not ignoring that.

Additionally it seems that as of lately, some of the top teams in the Big Sky usually fall flat the next year. I would assume that because of the way the teams have been built and coached that Weber and EWU would avoid that fate. ISU and UCD we'll have to see. In theory they should be good again, but we've seen teams like UND, SUU, and PSU go from good to awful in a single season.

Looking at the Griz schedule it's tough to really gauge at this point. One would think that they should go 3-1 in OOC, but nothings a given, both Monmouth and N. Alabama had good records, despite weaker overall schedules. USD is in the toughest football conference in the FCS.

In-conference if things generally stay constant;

- Sac, PSU, Idaho the Griz should be favored to win.
- ISU at home Griz should be favored slightly or a toss-up.
- MSU, WSU, EWU, UCD would presumably all be favored

So straight chalk you're at 7-5.

One could go either way here, if the Griz can steal 1 or 2 from the 4 games where they aren't favored then they're in great shape. On the other hand, they could also drop a game they should win, like one of those OOC games or a road game (@PSU).

Keep in mind that with exception to 1 game, the Griz lead in the 4th quarter of every loss. Additionally as has been pointed out, those losses usually hinged on one moment or series that could have tipped it the other way. I think a lot of this is due to the youth and thin ranks of the team, many of which return with more experience and as generally better players. I also like that ISU, EWU, and Weber at here in Missoula.

If I were to put a range on the amount of wins right now I'd say 7 or 8. I think I could talk myself in to 9 wins... but that would require some more pieces to come together with the progression of this team and presumably a few expected tough matchups on our schedule to totally fall apart.


this summary is solid in my mind.....it is what i think but could never put pen to paper this well...7-8 wins and we get into playoffs. go griz!
 
Culture and coaching changes take time. You're at least a year away. Likely 6-6, but could hit 7-5 or 5-7.

@ South Dakota - Tossup

North Alabama - Win

@Oregon - Loss

Monmouth - Win

@UC Davis - Loss

Idaho St - Tossup

@Sac St - Tossup

EWU - Loss

@PSU - Win

Idaho - Tossup

Weber St - Loss

@Montana St. - Loss
 
I believe if we come thru the non-conference games to start with a team intact, (No major injuries) we go 9-3 or 10-2. If we lose players or to many skill players get injured to start we go 7-5 or 6-6. Stay healthy is all I can say.
 
I'd expect that one of the few programs that's all in on football can be competitive in a weak FCS. The reality is that we will probably suck.
 
Back
Top