Cal Poly Mustangs Scouting Report

Get the low down on Griz/FCS Football
Post Reply
User avatar
BWahlberg
eGriz Club
Posts: 25569
Joined: Sat Oct 11, 2003 10:53 pm
Location: Missoula

This is a big road game for Montana. Off to Cal Poly who has a 3 game winning streak going against Montana and who has recently given most Griz teams a series of incredibly tough games. Looking back on the last 10 years of matchups against Poly we’ve squared off 8 times, each team has won 4 games. The average score over those 8 games rounds out to 29-28 in Montana’s favor. However, Bobby as a head coach has only lost to Poly once, so while they’ve been a nemesis of late, history suggests he’s been able to manage them.

For this Griz team to show they’re making the next step, they’ll need to show they can win on the road. Poly’s record could be a little deceiving as they’ve got one of the toughest schedules I’ve seen this year.

Cal Poly Mustangs 1-3

49-3 loss @ North Dakota State: It was 7-3 NDSU at the end of the first quarter… from there it got ugly. Poly was held to just 82 rushing yards and 125 passing, while their defense gave up 460 yards on the ground. NDSU barely had to pass the ball in the game, they averaged 10.2 yards per rush.

17-24 loss vs Weber State: Poly never lead in the game, and it was only tied at the start and at 10-10. While Weber could never pull away, Poly also couldn’t close the gap. Poly lost 2 fumbles and had a turnover on downs that killed a few drives. Meanwhile Weber didn’t flash the greatest stats, almost 200 rushing and 130 passing. There were 11 total punts in the game and it took less than 3 hours for the whole game to finish. Poly showed some good work on 3rd down as they tend do, while Weber wasn’t so great. As the game went on Poly got within 7 points with 3:30 left in the game and held Weber to a 3 and out. With the ball back Poly connected on a 17 yard pass to get into Weber territory, but on the next play their backup QB who played the whole game lost a fumble and ended the game.

44-15 win vs Brown: Now 0-2 Brown held it close for a bit, it was 17-15 Poly with almost 3 minutes until halftime. From there though Poly dominated scoring 4 TDs and held Brown to just 1 of 8 on 3rd down in the 2nd half and just 10 minutes of TOP.

17-70 loss @ Eastern Washington: EWU took a note out of NDSU’s page, rushing for 441 yards in the game total and just out-paced Poly more and more as the game went on. Poly did have nearly 380 rushing themselves but simply couldn’t even marginally stay on pace with EWU. Poly had plenty of self-inflicted wounds too. 2 lost fumbles that both turned into scoop and score TDs. EWU only had 20:00 of TOP, and just 1:23 in the whole first quarter, but clearly that didn’t matter much
-------------

General Stats

Passing yards per game Montana (255 for UM vs 90 for Poly)
Rushing yards per game Poly (171 rush ypg for UM vs 267 rush ypg for Poly)
Total offense Montana (426 for the Griz vs 357 for Poly)
Passing yards allowed per game Poly (178 ypg allowed by POLY vs 268 ypg allowed for UM)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (120 ypg allowed vs 297 ypg allowed by Poly)
Total defense Montana (387 ypg allowed by UM vs 475 ypg allowed by Poly)

4 for Montana and 2 for Cal Poly

Offense points scored Montana (35.5 vs 20.2)
Defense points allowed Montana (26 vs 39.5)
Turnover margin Montana - UM is +2 while Poly is -3
Fieldgoal % PUSH – 100% for both but Montana is 8-8 while Poly is 4-4
Punt Returns Montana (10.9 YPR vs 4.5 YPR)
Kick Returns Montana (25.9 for UM vs 20.4 for Poly)
T.O.P. Poly (33:30 for Poly vs 30:30 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) Montana (UM 60% / Poly 65% )
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Poly (67% POLY / 53% UM)
3rd down offense Poly (37% for UM / 46% for Poly)
3rd down defense Montana (UM 35% / Poly 38%)

That gives Montana 7 more and Cal Poly 3 more with 1 push. The total is Montana 11, Cal Poly 5, Push 1.

---------------------
Players to Watch:

#5 Joe Protheroe, FB: Back for his senior year after losing last season to injury. Poly’s workhorse in their offense. 523 yards on the ground, 4 TDs, averaging 130 yards per game. We all know this guy and have seen him rip us apart before, he’s 5-11 and 230 pounds and will be the first option in the Poly rush game.

#10 Khaleel Jenkins, QB: Jenkins started out 2017 as the starter but got hurt 3 or 4 games in. This year he’s missed a game on injury and was feared to be lost for the season again… but came back after a week off. He’s averaging about 50 yards per game rushing and 50 yards in the air.

#1 Ju’wan Campbell, WR: The guy has just 30 yards receiving though, but also has 150 rushing and 2 TDs this season.

#6 JJ Koski, WR: Probably the guy that gets the deep shot passes, he’s leading the WR group as really the only guy with major receiving stats. 243 yards in the air… but no TDs. The corners/safeties have to watch this guy, he’s their main target.

#14 Broc Mortensen, SB: The 3rd threat in the rush game. Mortensen has 124 yards this season, which is about 40 yards per game average.

#42 Matt Shotwell, LB: Brother of former Poly & Buch Buchanan winner Kyle Shotwell, he’s leading the team in tackles with 35. He’s got 3.5 TFLs, 1.5 sacks, and 1 recovered fumble.

#46 Nik Navarrao, LB: Another young LB with Poly that’s making the most of his opportunity with the Mustangs. He’s 2nd on the team in tackles with 33 and leads the team with 5 TFLs and has forced 1 fumble.

#8 Kitu Humphrey, S: The junior safety has 24 tackles and 1 fumble recovery, he also leads the team with 6 pass breakups.
-------------------------------

Keys to a Grizzly victory

1. Make the most of possession on offense. Poly is going to slow the game down and milk the clock. As some teams have shown when Poly really controls the clock they simply don’t allow the opponents to do anything. The Griz cannot afford a lot of stalled/wasted drives.

2. Run the damn ball. Ok we know that Poly is going to watch for the new Sneed pitch but all three of Poly’s losses have shown that they have a big issue containing the run. While the Griz will continue with a balanced attack, the ground game is where these guys can make their money on Saturday. Poly’s front 7 is very young, the Grizzly OL has to control this game

3. Grab some fumbles. Poly has fumbled 13 times and lost 7 this season already. The Griz have to get a few of them.

4. Don’t give up the deep shot. The Grizzly pass defense these last few weeks has shown issues in the pass game. Poly’s going to have 10 to 15 deep(er) pass shots in this game and if the Griz safeties aren’t ready it’ll result in some easy scores for Poly.

5. Weather the storm. This game will undoubtably come with some tough spots. These last two weeks showed the Griz can bounce back from some of those challenges, they’ll need to be prepared again to presumably face a lot of unknown, especially early.

6. Don’t give up long runs. It’s probably impossible to say “stop the run” but they have to contain Poly’s offense and not let Protheroe and company rip off long runs on the Griz. The Sac St game gives concern that this could happen too. Need to clean it up.

7. A big play or two on ST. Poly’s coverage stats are a little suspect, a JLM or Flowers long return or two would be huge.

8. 30+ points. I feel that with our young defense the Grizzly offense is going to have to put up some good numbers to help these guys out.

--------------------------

I really think if the Grizzly defense doesn’t let the Poly run game totally torch them this should be a game they win. However Poly’s faced some tough teams and could be ripe to pull off the upset. I do like that Bobby’s teams tend to be better prepared for Poly than the prior few coaches we’ve seen, and I think this week the Griz get it done, but once again it’s going to be a little tense. I’ll go 38-32 Griz win.

GO GRIZ!
Griz practice and news updates http://twitter.com/Bwahlberg

Brint Wahlberg - Realtor, Windermere Real Estate

The official REALTOR(R) of Grizzly Athletics
Image
User avatar
signedbewildered
eGriz Club
Posts: 5252
Joined: Wed Feb 27, 2013 4:21 pm
Location: South of The Zoo

Might I add take off sprinting and never look back. Hard for those guys to play catch up.
User avatar
Proud Griz Man
eGriz Club
Posts: 5444
Joined: Wed Nov 13, 2002 11:50 am

Another great report Mr. W. I think you have nailed it with #5-8 shown below. Poly has routine access to speedy California kids (if they can qualify scholastically).
BWahlberg wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 2:06 pm This is a big road game for Montana. Off to Cal Poly who has a 3 game winning streak going against Montana and who has recently given most Griz teams a series of incredibly tough games. Looking back on the last 10 years of matchups against Poly we’ve squared off 8 times, each team has won 4 games. The average score over those 8 games rounds out to 29-28 in Montana’s favor.

5. Weather the storm. This game will undoubtably come with some tough spots. These last two weeks showed the Griz can bounce back from some of those challenges, they’ll need to be prepared again to presumably face a lot of unknown, especially early.

6. Don’t give up long runs. It’s probably impossible to say “stop the run” but they have to contain Poly’s offense and not let Protheroe and company rip off long runs on the Griz. The Sac St game gives concern that this could happen too. Need to clean it up.

7. A big play or two on ST. Poly’s coverage stats are a little suspect, a JLM or Flowers long return or two would be huge.

8. 30+ points. I feel that with our young defense the Grizzly offense is going to have to put up some good numbers to help these guys out.

--------------------------

I really think if the Grizzly defense doesn’t let the Poly run game totally torch them this should be a game they win. However Poly’s faced some tough teams and could be ripe to pull off the upset. I do like that Bobby’s teams tend to be better prepared for Poly than the prior few coaches we’ve seen, and I think this week the Griz get it done, but once again it’s going to be a little tense. I’ll go 38-32 Griz win.

GO GRIZ!
garizzalies
Posts: 3636
Joined: Mon Sep 08, 2008 3:14 pm

Key: stop the dive. If we can limit their fullback to <2yd/carry, it’ll be a cake walk. So much easier said than done. If he starts ripping off 5+ yards per carry, we’ll be in deep do-do
User avatar
Yukon
Posts: 3753
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2011 7:51 pm
Location: Colorado

Hauck played Air Force while at UNLV, so hopefully he learned some new tricks to stop the 3-headed monster.
"Facts are stubborn things" John Adams
User avatar
dupuyer griz
eGriz Club
Posts: 3034
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2009 12:41 pm

Whoever is on the qb, hit him in the f###[#] mouth every play.
User avatar
bgbigdog
eGriz Club
Posts: 5781
Joined: Mon Oct 08, 2012 11:53 am
Location: US

dupuyer griz wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:12 pm Whoever is on the qb, hit him in the f***[*] mouth every play.
Did you not get lunch? Somebody out there got a snickers?
"Growl"
User avatar
dupuyer griz
eGriz Club
Posts: 3034
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2009 12:41 pm

bgbigdog wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 6:30 pm
dupuyer griz wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 4:12 pm Whoever is on the qb, hit him in the f***[*] mouth every play.
Did you not get lunch? Somebody out there got a snickers?
It appears that tapatalk helped me with my pottymouth and the site does not. Also, no lunch. Winter wheat seeding eat later.
NorthEndZoneDan
eGriz Club
Posts: 3270
Joined: Mon Aug 08, 2011 3:52 pm
Location: North End Zone Section 130

thanks BW, that was a good write up. I'm still shaking my head at the points ewoo put on the board. Im thinking 35 points should suffice.
my two favorite teams are The Griz and who ever is playing the bobkitties
User avatar
SloStang
Posts: 1245
Joined: Wed Oct 12, 2005 11:10 pm

#1 J’uan Campbell is listed as a WR on the roster because that in the position he played at Hartnell JC. He is a SB at Cal Poly. He has 27 rushing attempts for 5.4 yard average and 3 receptions.
User avatar
dupuyer griz
eGriz Club
Posts: 3034
Joined: Wed Aug 26, 2009 12:41 pm

NorthEndZoneDan wrote: Wed Sep 26, 2018 8:16 pm thanks BW, that was a good write up. I'm still shaking my head at the points ewoo put on the board. Im thinking 35 points should suffice.
I’ll take the 70 I think. Too many heartbreaking losses in recent memory.
mtgrizfankb
Posts: 2823
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2007 2:05 pm

This game has blow out written all over it for most. For me...trap game...all day long. So far this griz team has done very well on defense of doing their 1/11. Besides a few missed calls and miscommunications the team has played pretty well on Defense. Last week I saw some things that Cal Poly is waiting for and it could cause us issues, That being said we will prepare differently and be executing a completely different game plan.

Offense: People get caught all the time on offense vs Option teams. People get the idea...hey lets score early and make CP play catch up. great idea...if it works, problem with this strategy...people come out and shoot a few shots and miss on them. CP then holds the ball for 8 minutes and scores. Then the shoe is on the other foot. In my mind the key for our offense is not going to be the explosive plays, I know we will probably get a few anyways. In my mind we need to execute the short passes and the mid length run plays. Stay on schedule on downs. 2nd and 5 or under is our best friend this week. Efficiency is what kills Cal Poly. Limit the dropped passes, Limit the negative yard plays. Cal poly has a younger front and while they have some talent and mobility, They also are undisciplined and that is what killed them vs NDSU and EWU. They leave their gap early, They push the edge too hard and they over purse. Last week I highlighted the same thing with Sac and we took advantage. It will be essential we mix up the looks and use a multitude of run options. Screens, bubbles, Sneed Options and RPO. Don't let CP get the idea that they only have to key on one area...they have the ability to defend that. They however will get out of position when we execute multiple looks and I think we will see some of that this weekend.

Defense: Cal Poly has speed and power. I know, they are a option team DUH they have speed and power. Problem with this is that it keeps you off balance and that's how CP beats on teams and griz teams in the past. They are great at getting the edge and when you start to key on getting outside...boom direct up the middle and one missed tackle can mean a huge gain. Last week I saw some poor tackling vs Sac. Even vs the run in the second half...which we closed down...we missed a tackle or two but had secondary men there to wrap up. We won't have as many secondary men this week there. The option design stops that by putting everyone out there on a blocking assignment. We MUST tackle....1 tackle...bring them down. As with any option team, assignment based football is key, throw out your normal nose to the ball attitude because you CAN NOT over pursue, otherwise the counters and speed will eat you alive.

Overall: Like I said to start, This has trap game written on it for me. We just beat a very good Sac team and bounced back from the loss. although we most likely are not looking forward to PSU don't get me wrong. but we might be a little overconfident and complacent with a younger team. I don't think we lose this game however, I think Cal Poly just does not have the horses on Defense this year. They are sloppy enough on offense and have not executed their game plans thoroughly all year long where they will gift us an extra possession or two. Sneed will look to manage the game and we should be coasting in the 4th quarter. If we make mistakes and play sloppy on the offensive side of the ball and let CP stay ahead or neck and neck with us...then this could be a tough game to win in the second half. We can't afford to let CP think they are in this game. VS EWU even when they started to try and creep back up in the game...it didn't look like they believed they would be in the game anyways, they got sloppy and EWU then rolled off multiple TDs in a row. We just need to execute the consistent offense and the explosive offense will come. Wrap up with first contact and don't rely on those secondary defenders coming to help.

Looking at the film from the two teams you can tell where the talent and execution lies. It is clear Montana is a better team and should win this game by multiple scores. Look into the game further and there is more story there. It all lays down on Montana. If we do what we do...count the W and move on. If we slip up..CP has a team that can take advantage and unlike most teams...they do that while eating at your possession time as well. Mistakes are much bigger in cal poly games and we have a young team..that scares me. My prediction is that we see a little of both and out talent eats away as CP defense just cant defend all the looks we present. CP makes a mistake or two giving up the ball and we walk away with a comfortable but not extremely happy 34-17 ish type game
Griz Nation. Loud Proud and Maroon.
Diesel
Posts: 1158
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2016 1:17 pm

Thanks for scouting report
All I remember from CP games is how physical the games are.
Good luck to the Griz defense and get ready for the hits.
Poor CB tackling and soft safety play in the past some was due to the physical play and players were not able physically to compete at a high level in the fourth quarter.
User avatar
IdahoGrizFan
Posts: 1548
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 9:33 pm
Location: Spokane Valley, WA

So if EWU can rush for over 400 yards against them hopefully we can get 200+.
I live way to close to that stupid red field at EWU... Just saying...
User avatar
AZGrizFan
eGriz Club
Posts: 26556
Joined: Thu Sep 08, 2005 5:34 pm
Location: Texas

mtgrizfankb wrote: Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:35 am Offense: People get caught all the time on offense vs Option teams. People get the idea...hey lets score early and make CP play catch up. great idea...if it works, problem with this strategy...people come out and shoot a few shots and miss on them. CP then holds the ball for 8 minutes and scores. Then the shoe is on the other foot.
I think the key is not to leave/get your defense out on the field too quickly. if we score quick and then CP grinds out 7-8 minute drives a couple times, D will get gassed. We've seen them get gassed in each of the past few games and that can be a real concern against a ball-control team like CP. D needs US to have some long, sustained drives so they can get their legs/lungs back.
Guns kill people like spoons make you fat.
mtgrizfankb
Posts: 2823
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2007 2:05 pm

IdahoGrizFan wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:14 am So if EWU can rush for over 400 yards against them hopefully we can get 200+.
We can hope. I would say EWU OL is at a better place than ours obviously. As a team EWU averaged 14 yards a carry. They were gashing Cal poly is long long runs. I mean they only ran the ball 30 times or about 51% of the plays. Cal Poly will learn from some of those plays and make adjustments. They have very young and aggressive front 7 and they were out of alignment and over their containment just a TON. It didn't matter who had the ball, the holes were massive and the speed was prevalent. You have to imagine that we will see some of that carry over and we will be able to do some of the things EWU did. If we have 200 Rushing yards...well then we should be having a great offensive day.
Griz Nation. Loud Proud and Maroon.
mtgrizfankb
Posts: 2823
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2007 2:05 pm

AZGrizFan wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 10:24 am
mtgrizfankb wrote: Thu Sep 27, 2018 9:35 am Offense: People get caught all the time on offense vs Option teams. People get the idea...hey lets score early and make CP play catch up. great idea...if it works, problem with this strategy...people come out and shoot a few shots and miss on them. CP then holds the ball for 8 minutes and scores. Then the shoe is on the other foot.
I think the key is not to leave/get your defense out on the field too quickly. if we score quick and then CP grinds out 7-8 minute drives a couple times, D will get gassed. We've seen them get gassed in each of the past few games and that can be a real concern against a ball-control team like CP. D needs US to have some long, sustained drives so they can get their legs/lungs back.
Don't tell that to EWU. They scored 70 points in just 20 minutes with the football. That's over a field goal a minute. Of course it was different in a blowout. The problem with your D being out there a bunch is...if it comes down to a close game, are you going to have the depth and the ability to stop a triple option when you have been hit in the mouth all game long. We don't have LB depth and that might hurt us this game. Safety play will be huge of course. JP is going to get 25+ touches and probably 150 yards. That's just the way it is. I loved the quote from their Coach Walsh "young defenses make dumb mistakes, tired defenses make stupid mistakes. Imagine what happens when our defense is young and tired"
Griz Nation. Loud Proud and Maroon.
User avatar
IdahoGrizFan
Posts: 1548
Joined: Fri Sep 19, 2003 9:33 pm
Location: Spokane Valley, WA

Then there was the CP game down there when the lights went out with less then a minute to go. Wasn't it like 4th and goal for CP, we were up by 4ish and they were lining up for the snap and the 10:00 pm shut off happened. After a 30-40 minute delay I think they threw a pass in the left corner and we swatted it down for the win. That's how I remember it anyways.
I live way to close to that stupid red field at EWU... Just saying...
Preoticmrnnslvr
Posts: 133
Joined: Sat Dec 05, 2009 10:07 pm

IdahoGrizFan wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:18 pm Then there was the CP game down there when the lights went out with less then a minute to go. Wasn't it like 4th and goal for CP, we were up by 4ish and they were lining up for the snap and the 10:00 pm shut off happened. After a 30-40 minute delay I think they threw a pass in the left corner and we swatted it down for the win. That's how I remember it anyways.
I believe that was uc davis, Tru baited the qb.
"If my aunt had balls, she'd be my uncle." -Hauck
Once a griz, always a griz! Once a cat, always a pussy!
mtgrizfankb
Posts: 2823
Joined: Wed Nov 21, 2007 2:05 pm

IdahoGrizFan wrote: Fri Sep 28, 2018 2:18 pm Then there was the CP game down there when the lights went out with less then a minute to go. Wasn't it like 4th and goal for CP, we were up by 4ish and they were lining up for the snap and the 10:00 pm shut off happened. After a 30-40 minute delay I think they threw a pass in the left corner and we swatted it down for the win. That's how I remember it anyways.
That was UC Davis back in 09. Tru picked it off on a 4th down play. it was forth and long and we picked it in the endzone
Griz Nation. Loud Proud and Maroon.
Post Reply