The Grizzlies backs are to the wall, they’re maybe down to their 3rd string QB, are coming off a rough loss, and hosting the hottest team in the Big Sky… first place NAU. For the Griz their post season hopes hinge on winning out, and it all starts with this monster battle. NAU’s won 6 in a row, ever since it was announced that their head coach, Jerome Souers, will not return next season.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: 6-2
24-62 loss @ Arizona - Arizona ran for over 500 yards and while the game was close for a little while they pulled away with a controlling offense. NAU was -3 in the game.
20-38 loss vs Western Illinois – Rough opening home loss for NAU, WIU ran up to a 24-7 lead in the 3rd and kept NAU at bay through the rest of the game. NAU went -3 again and gave up 200+ rushing and passing, while they couldn’t get much at all going for their offense. WIU is currently ranked #15 in the nation at 5-3.
28-10 win @ Cal Poly – NAU got their first win, mostly though the air, almost 420 passing but still not a lot of rushing yards. Poly didn’t get much going, just about 150 rushing and 150 passing. NAU also forced 4 turnovers in the game.
48-20 win vs Northern Colorado – UNC made this game a little interesting for a while, getting within 6 in the 3rd, but NAU’s offense was just too much. UNC had 3 total turnovers and didn’t rush much, while NAU finally got some ground game rolling, 166 yards.
37-16 win vs Illinois State – ISU was ranked pretty high when they came to town, but got rolled by NAU in this game. NAU barely ran the ball, just 28 rushing but 403 passing. The NAU defense grabbed 3 picks in the game as they rolled to a huge win. ISU lost the next week but bounced back, they’re 6-2 right now and #12 in the nation.
42-20 win @ Portland State – The game was close into the 3rd, NAU had a 14-13 lead midway through the 3rd, but then NAU got rolling. NAU had another massive passing day, 350 more in the air and 131 rushing. Meanwhile PSU’s offense did what they usually do, 305 on the ground.
45-31 win vs UC Davis – Kind of a weird box score. NAU score 5 times straight to go up 35-7, then UCD scored 17 unanswered to get within 11… but NAU added 10 more to put it away. NAU had a balanced attack, almost 300 passing and over 200 rushing. UCD only had about 340 total yards in the game. UCD was a putrid 4-16 on 3rd down.
37-17 win vs Sac State – Sac kept it close… they were down 20-17 near the end of the 3rd quarter, but after that NAU kicked a fieldgoal, scored a TD, and had a pick-6 to end the game. I don’t really know Sac was even in this game, they had just 233 total yards of offense (93 passing). NAU had over 400 passing but did lose a few fumbles. I read in this game that Sac was without their starting QB.
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General Stats –
Passing yards per game PUSH (Both are essentially at 342)
Rushing yards per game Montana (143 rush ypg vs 119 rush ypg)
Total offense Montana (485 for the Griz vs 461 for Weber)
Passing yards allowed per game NAU (178 ypg allowed vs 292 ypg allowed)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (150 ypg allowed vs 201 ypg allowed)
Total defense NAU (379 ypg allowed vs 443 ypg allowed)
3 for the Griz, 2 for NAU, 1 push
Offense points scored Montana (37.6 vs 35.1)
Defense points allowed NAU (28.6 vs 32.4)
Turnover margin NAU – NAU is +6 while UM is -6
Fieldgoal % Montana – .8 for Montana / .62 for NAU
Punt Returns Montana (6.5 YPR vs 5.8 YPR)
Kick Returns NAU (22.2 for NAU vs 17.9 for UM)
T.O.P. NAU (29:12 for NAU vs 27:36 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) NAU (UM 60% / NAU 42% )
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (scores 70% while NAU scores 58%)
3rd down offense Montana (converts 45% of the time and 40% for NAU)
3rd down defense NAU (UM 39% / NAU 37%)
NAU adds 6 where Montana adds 5. Total score… Montana 8… NAU 8… Push 1. However that 1 push is passing yards, and if we’re without Gresch, it’s obvious who would hold that advantage
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Players to Watch:
#15 Case Cookus, QB – the 6-4 Sophomore QB is one of the two best in the conference. He’s passing for almost 330 per game and has thrown 19 TDs to just 4 INTs. He may be the front runner for Big Sky MVP. He’s a little bit of a running threat though, he’s got 1 rushing TD this season.
#3 Elijah Marks, WR – Marks is questionable for the game, he missed last week with a knee injury. He’s NAU’s big time dude since they lost Butler for the season. He’s averaging 135 yards per game and has a team best 6 TDs. If he goes Saturday… that’ll be huge for NAU. Marks is also their punt and kick returner, not much to show on punts but he does have a KR touchdown.
#82 Chancellor Brewington, WR – Brewington stepped up big in Marks absence last week, 120 yards and 1 TD. He’s got a total of 260 total receiving yards this season
#87 Hunter Burton, WR – NAU has huge stable of WRs. Burton is 2nd best in catches on the team with 21 and has 270 receiving yards.
#84 Jonathan Baldwin, TE – Another week and another stud TE, Baldwin is 6-4, 230 and has 277 receiving yards and 4 TDs this season. Watch for him big time in the RZ.
#6 Cory Young, RB – Young is part of NAU’s rushing duo, he’s got 491 yards and 6 TDs this season on the ground and 121 receiving and 1 receiving TD. Young has far less touches than their other RB but has more total yards. He’s 205 pounds, both of NAU’s backs are close to 200 pounds.
#22 Joe Logan, RB – Logan’s 5-11, 200 pounds, he has almost 20 more rush attempts than Young but has less yards (433) and less TDs (4). He’s 141 receiving yards too, but no TDs.
#25 Kam’ron Johnson, S – Johnson leads the team with 4 interceptions, he’s a big safety at 6-1, 225 and is 2nd on the team with 53 tackles and tied for 1st with 8 pass breakups.
#20 Maurice Davidson, CB – Davidson has 3 picks, 8 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble, and 34 total tackles this season.
#7 Byron Evans, LB – Evans leads the team in tackles with 56, he’s got 1 sack, 3 TFLs, and 1 interception this season.
#28 Wes Sutton, S – Sutton is tied for 2nd on the team with 53 tackles, he’s a little smaller than Johnson at 6 foot, 175. He’s got 2 picks, 5 TFLs, and 4 pass breakups.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Ball control & DOLA. Let’s assume Jensen is out, the Griz will not want to get in a shootout with NAU. NAU’s rush defense isn’t nearly as good as Weber’s and could present some opportunities for Calhoun and Lee. I’ve seen suggestion that the NAU coaches are surprised at how soft UM played against Weber. What a great chance to prove them wrong.
2. Limit turnovers. NAU doesn’t throw a lot of picks, opportunities there could be limited. They do lose the occasional fumble, so forcing a few turnovers could really help. And unlike last week… not being -5 in turnovers would really help. The Griz need to be the aggressors and take the ball, and not give it away.
3. Let JLM run wild. NAU’s punt coverage stats aren’t the greatest (allowing almost 12 per return) and depending on our QB situation some safer/shorter passes to our electric slot WR will be a big part of the game. I’d love to see over 200 all purpose yards for Jerry and 2 TDs.
4. Pressure Cookus. The Griz cannot sit back in a comfy defense and let Cookus pick them apart with short passes or check-downs. Both the NAU RB’s are good receivers and regular options. If the Griz defense can keep the heat on Cookus and force quick/off-timed throws that’ll help disrupt the offense.
5. TD’s in the red zone. The Griz will need to come away with TDs when they get inside NAU’s 20.
6. Keep their cool. NAU is a rather highly penalized team, almost 80 yards per game. The Griz have their backs to the wall and last year in that position lost their cool. This year they’ll need to avoid that, play smart, and let NAU hurt themselves.
7. A crazy-ass Wa Griz crowd. Seriously guys… we need to get behind this team and be INSANE on Saturday.
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The QB situation really makes this game a tough one to pick, however if the Griz are without Jensen and focus more on running the ball that could be a benefit. NAU makes their money picking passes and stopping the passing game, if the Griz don’t do that much, that could confound what NAU does best defensively. However, as the Sac St game showed, it could also lead to NAU pulling away from a team that couldn’t respond.
I think the smart pick here is the hot team in NAU. However they’ve got a reputation for later season melt downs, especially on the road. They’ve played 5 games already at home and just 3 on the road, only out-scoring road opponents 94-92 (keep in mind the one road loss was the Arizona blowout).
The weather could be an interesting factor, rainy on Friday, cold and maybe some early snow on Saturday. For a precision passing offense that could be trouble. However right now it looks like later Saturday could be ok, just cold.
I’m torn, I don’t know what to expect. If the Griz have Jensen I could see a tight game and a Griz win. Without him I’m just not sure. Can the Grizzly ground game go toe to toe with one of the better passing offenses in the Big Sky?
We’ll find out pretty soon, excited to see how this team responds!
GO GRIZ!!
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks: 6-2
24-62 loss @ Arizona - Arizona ran for over 500 yards and while the game was close for a little while they pulled away with a controlling offense. NAU was -3 in the game.
20-38 loss vs Western Illinois – Rough opening home loss for NAU, WIU ran up to a 24-7 lead in the 3rd and kept NAU at bay through the rest of the game. NAU went -3 again and gave up 200+ rushing and passing, while they couldn’t get much at all going for their offense. WIU is currently ranked #15 in the nation at 5-3.
28-10 win @ Cal Poly – NAU got their first win, mostly though the air, almost 420 passing but still not a lot of rushing yards. Poly didn’t get much going, just about 150 rushing and 150 passing. NAU also forced 4 turnovers in the game.
48-20 win vs Northern Colorado – UNC made this game a little interesting for a while, getting within 6 in the 3rd, but NAU’s offense was just too much. UNC had 3 total turnovers and didn’t rush much, while NAU finally got some ground game rolling, 166 yards.
37-16 win vs Illinois State – ISU was ranked pretty high when they came to town, but got rolled by NAU in this game. NAU barely ran the ball, just 28 rushing but 403 passing. The NAU defense grabbed 3 picks in the game as they rolled to a huge win. ISU lost the next week but bounced back, they’re 6-2 right now and #12 in the nation.
42-20 win @ Portland State – The game was close into the 3rd, NAU had a 14-13 lead midway through the 3rd, but then NAU got rolling. NAU had another massive passing day, 350 more in the air and 131 rushing. Meanwhile PSU’s offense did what they usually do, 305 on the ground.
45-31 win vs UC Davis – Kind of a weird box score. NAU score 5 times straight to go up 35-7, then UCD scored 17 unanswered to get within 11… but NAU added 10 more to put it away. NAU had a balanced attack, almost 300 passing and over 200 rushing. UCD only had about 340 total yards in the game. UCD was a putrid 4-16 on 3rd down.
37-17 win vs Sac State – Sac kept it close… they were down 20-17 near the end of the 3rd quarter, but after that NAU kicked a fieldgoal, scored a TD, and had a pick-6 to end the game. I don’t really know Sac was even in this game, they had just 233 total yards of offense (93 passing). NAU had over 400 passing but did lose a few fumbles. I read in this game that Sac was without their starting QB.
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General Stats –
Passing yards per game PUSH (Both are essentially at 342)
Rushing yards per game Montana (143 rush ypg vs 119 rush ypg)
Total offense Montana (485 for the Griz vs 461 for Weber)
Passing yards allowed per game NAU (178 ypg allowed vs 292 ypg allowed)
Rushing yards allowed per game Montana (150 ypg allowed vs 201 ypg allowed)
Total defense NAU (379 ypg allowed vs 443 ypg allowed)
3 for the Griz, 2 for NAU, 1 push
Offense points scored Montana (37.6 vs 35.1)
Defense points allowed NAU (28.6 vs 32.4)
Turnover margin NAU – NAU is +6 while UM is -6
Fieldgoal % Montana – .8 for Montana / .62 for NAU
Punt Returns Montana (6.5 YPR vs 5.8 YPR)
Kick Returns NAU (22.2 for NAU vs 17.9 for UM)
T.O.P. NAU (29:12 for NAU vs 27:36 for UM)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) NAU (UM 60% / NAU 42% )
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) Montana (scores 70% while NAU scores 58%)
3rd down offense Montana (converts 45% of the time and 40% for NAU)
3rd down defense NAU (UM 39% / NAU 37%)
NAU adds 6 where Montana adds 5. Total score… Montana 8… NAU 8… Push 1. However that 1 push is passing yards, and if we’re without Gresch, it’s obvious who would hold that advantage
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Players to Watch:
#15 Case Cookus, QB – the 6-4 Sophomore QB is one of the two best in the conference. He’s passing for almost 330 per game and has thrown 19 TDs to just 4 INTs. He may be the front runner for Big Sky MVP. He’s a little bit of a running threat though, he’s got 1 rushing TD this season.
#3 Elijah Marks, WR – Marks is questionable for the game, he missed last week with a knee injury. He’s NAU’s big time dude since they lost Butler for the season. He’s averaging 135 yards per game and has a team best 6 TDs. If he goes Saturday… that’ll be huge for NAU. Marks is also their punt and kick returner, not much to show on punts but he does have a KR touchdown.
#82 Chancellor Brewington, WR – Brewington stepped up big in Marks absence last week, 120 yards and 1 TD. He’s got a total of 260 total receiving yards this season
#87 Hunter Burton, WR – NAU has huge stable of WRs. Burton is 2nd best in catches on the team with 21 and has 270 receiving yards.
#84 Jonathan Baldwin, TE – Another week and another stud TE, Baldwin is 6-4, 230 and has 277 receiving yards and 4 TDs this season. Watch for him big time in the RZ.
#6 Cory Young, RB – Young is part of NAU’s rushing duo, he’s got 491 yards and 6 TDs this season on the ground and 121 receiving and 1 receiving TD. Young has far less touches than their other RB but has more total yards. He’s 205 pounds, both of NAU’s backs are close to 200 pounds.
#22 Joe Logan, RB – Logan’s 5-11, 200 pounds, he has almost 20 more rush attempts than Young but has less yards (433) and less TDs (4). He’s 141 receiving yards too, but no TDs.
#25 Kam’ron Johnson, S – Johnson leads the team with 4 interceptions, he’s a big safety at 6-1, 225 and is 2nd on the team with 53 tackles and tied for 1st with 8 pass breakups.
#20 Maurice Davidson, CB – Davidson has 3 picks, 8 pass breakups, 1 forced fumble, and 34 total tackles this season.
#7 Byron Evans, LB – Evans leads the team in tackles with 56, he’s got 1 sack, 3 TFLs, and 1 interception this season.
#28 Wes Sutton, S – Sutton is tied for 2nd on the team with 53 tackles, he’s a little smaller than Johnson at 6 foot, 175. He’s got 2 picks, 5 TFLs, and 4 pass breakups.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
1. Ball control & DOLA. Let’s assume Jensen is out, the Griz will not want to get in a shootout with NAU. NAU’s rush defense isn’t nearly as good as Weber’s and could present some opportunities for Calhoun and Lee. I’ve seen suggestion that the NAU coaches are surprised at how soft UM played against Weber. What a great chance to prove them wrong.
2. Limit turnovers. NAU doesn’t throw a lot of picks, opportunities there could be limited. They do lose the occasional fumble, so forcing a few turnovers could really help. And unlike last week… not being -5 in turnovers would really help. The Griz need to be the aggressors and take the ball, and not give it away.
3. Let JLM run wild. NAU’s punt coverage stats aren’t the greatest (allowing almost 12 per return) and depending on our QB situation some safer/shorter passes to our electric slot WR will be a big part of the game. I’d love to see over 200 all purpose yards for Jerry and 2 TDs.
4. Pressure Cookus. The Griz cannot sit back in a comfy defense and let Cookus pick them apart with short passes or check-downs. Both the NAU RB’s are good receivers and regular options. If the Griz defense can keep the heat on Cookus and force quick/off-timed throws that’ll help disrupt the offense.
5. TD’s in the red zone. The Griz will need to come away with TDs when they get inside NAU’s 20.
6. Keep their cool. NAU is a rather highly penalized team, almost 80 yards per game. The Griz have their backs to the wall and last year in that position lost their cool. This year they’ll need to avoid that, play smart, and let NAU hurt themselves.
7. A crazy-ass Wa Griz crowd. Seriously guys… we need to get behind this team and be INSANE on Saturday.
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The QB situation really makes this game a tough one to pick, however if the Griz are without Jensen and focus more on running the ball that could be a benefit. NAU makes their money picking passes and stopping the passing game, if the Griz don’t do that much, that could confound what NAU does best defensively. However, as the Sac St game showed, it could also lead to NAU pulling away from a team that couldn’t respond.
I think the smart pick here is the hot team in NAU. However they’ve got a reputation for later season melt downs, especially on the road. They’ve played 5 games already at home and just 3 on the road, only out-scoring road opponents 94-92 (keep in mind the one road loss was the Arizona blowout).
The weather could be an interesting factor, rainy on Friday, cold and maybe some early snow on Saturday. For a precision passing offense that could be trouble. However right now it looks like later Saturday could be ok, just cold.
I’m torn, I don’t know what to expect. If the Griz have Jensen I could see a tight game and a Griz win. Without him I’m just not sure. Can the Grizzly ground game go toe to toe with one of the better passing offenses in the Big Sky?
We’ll find out pretty soon, excited to see how this team responds!
GO GRIZ!!
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