Some Ask a Taboo Question: Is America Overreacting to Coronavirus?

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CatGrad-UMGradStu
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Among the essential businesses in Colorado, presently under the governor's shelter in place order, are liquor stores, marijuana dispensaries and firearm retailers.
PlayerRep
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EverettGriz wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:02 pm
Florida finally closed its beaches two days ago. It needed to 22 days ago.

Florida is about to be overwhelmed. Louisiana as well. Mississippi will soon follow.
As I had said, parts of Florida closed their beaches well before 2 days ago. I was there when Miami-Beach and Fort Lauderdale closed its public beaches and then its private beaches too. There appeared to be zero older people on the public beaches even when they were open.

"Still, the mayors of Miami Beach and Fort Lauderdale, two of the most popular beach destinations in the state, issued orders to close their beaches last Sunday.

Public beaches in Tampa are also closed until further notice, city officials said.

Naples announced Wednesday [March 18] that it would close its beaches until March 30.

"https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/coronav ... s/2261397/

"By Monday, the mayor of Miami Beach had shut down the most popular 10-block stretch of beach in his city." [This was March 16, and South Beach.]

https://www.latimes.com/world-nation/st ... ring-break

I think some beaches like Daytona had stayed open longer.
mcg
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Florida may be a serious disaster. Some towns closed their beaches early, but some did not, so the open beaches simply became more crowded. There was a pretty significant spring break crowd not very interested in social distancing. This was a direct result of the governor not issue a state-wide closure order.

My mother in laws elder community has been very late to the behavior changes required. Still lots of people getting together in relatively small houses for card games with lots of shared food. Pretty much a recipe for transmission.

Lot's of folks migrating from NY, they'll bring at least some infection with them.
PlayerRep
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My wife just did a video (Zoom) yoga class with her favorite Peak yogi. Said she noticed there were 59 people on it at one time.
argh!
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CatGrad-UMGradStu wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:39 pm
Among the essential businesses in Colorado, presently under the governor's shelter in place order, are liquor stores, marijuana dispensaries and firearm retailers.
not so sure about weed, but liquor stores staying open makes sense. if alcohol access is cut off, alcoholics with the dt's, which can be life threatening, could overwhelm emergency rooms even further. a sad reality, i know, but cutting off the sale of booze would not be smart.
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TCCGRIZ
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Sounds like 3pm today Bullock is shutting it down .
From a fan of mine "When I need a policeman to police my posts, you'll be the first person I call"
PlayerRep
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"Booze, beer, wine and pot available for delivery in Missoula"

"Medical marijuana is also available for delivery from dispensaries in Missoula.

Montana Medicinals in downtown Missoula offers free delivery of cannabis three days a week for their registered patients."

https://missoulian.com/news/local/booze ... d8b32.html
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cclarkblues
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PlayerRep wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:03 pm
My wife just did a video (Zoom) yoga class with her favorite Peak yogi. Said she noticed there were 59 people on it at one time.
Our club, Granite fitness is offering a number of classes on their YouTube channel. Fitness gurus like Les Mills also has some free offerings during this time. It's a shame our club closed just as I was getting huge...
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CatGrad-UMGradStu
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argh! wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:04 pm
CatGrad-UMGradStu wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:39 pm
Among the essential businesses in Colorado, presently under the governor's shelter in place order, are liquor stores, marijuana dispensaries and firearm retailers.
not so sure about weed, but liquor stores staying open makes sense. if alcohol access is cut off, alcoholics with the dt's, which can be life threatening, could overwhelm emergency rooms even further. a sad reality, i know, but cutting off the sale of booze would not be smart.
I'm neutral as to all that Colorado is doing, but there are some fascinating data coming out of this state right now and I enjoy watching their leadership:
https://www.denverpost.com/2020/03/25/d ... ana-sales/
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EverettGriz
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mcg wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:47 pm
Florida may be a serious disaster. Some towns closed their beaches early, but some did not, so the open beaches simply became more crowded. There was a pretty significant spring break crowd not very interested in social distancing. This was a direct result of the governor not issue a state-wide closure order.

My mother in laws elder community has been very late to the behavior changes required. Still lots of people getting together in relatively small houses for card games with lots of shared food. Pretty much a recipe for transmission.

Lot's of folks migrating from NY, they'll bring at least some infection with them.
Florida and New Orleans could be in SERIOUS trouble. Mississippi because the governor is an idiot.
Booze is the duct tape of life.
PlayerRep
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cclarkblues wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:28 pm
PlayerRep wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:03 pm
My wife just did a video (Zoom) yoga class with her favorite Peak yogi. Said she noticed there were 59 people on it at one time.
Our club, Granite fitness is offering a number of classes on their YouTube channel. Fitness gurus like Les Mills also has some free offerings during this time. It's a shame our club closed just as I was getting huge...
Cool. My wife and 2 kids, 23 and 30, are getting tons of exercise. Walking, hiking, walking dog, biking (inside and outside), running (not me), hiking up MT Sentinel, yoga (not me or my son), weights (in basement, decent set). We're having a contest to lose weight, actual and percentage. Some progress there, but there may not be much progress until we run out of the good wine.

I wonder if clubs can get open in MT, by coming up with some spacing rules and best practices. Limiting number of people in gym at a time. Lots more wiping of equipment. Limiting use of locker room. Spreading spinning bikes. More spacing in classes.

Heck, taking temperatures at the door. Maybe no basketball. Swimming?

There must be a way. Probably not in NYC, but in MT.
mcg
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Here is a good article. It's way too long to cut and paste here, but read it:

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/ar ... virus.html
PlayerRep
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EverettGriz wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:38 pm
mcg wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 12:47 pm
Florida may be a serious disaster. Some towns closed their beaches early, but some did not, so the open beaches simply became more crowded. There was a pretty significant spring break crowd not very interested in social distancing. This was a direct result of the governor not issue a state-wide closure order.

My mother in laws elder community has been very late to the behavior changes required. Still lots of people getting together in relatively small houses for card games with lots of shared food. Pretty much a recipe for transmission.

Lot's of folks migrating from NY, they'll bring at least some infection with them.
Florida and New Orleans could be in SERIOUS trouble. Mississippi because the governor is an idiot.
They both have 2300 cases. Went up 378 and 510 in last day. NY, NJ, Michigan, Ill, Penn, went up more.
ilovethecats
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argh! wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:18 am
PlayerRep wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:48 am
argh! wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:23 am
PlayerRep wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:06 am

He described this as something akin to a "really bad flu." Of course, no country quarantines 400 million+, cruise ships, and puts people on military bases with the flu (even H1N1)"
except the flu doesn't have anywhere near that hospitalization rate.
CDC flu stats. These are averaged (or something similar) annual numbers since 2010.

"CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."
i meant by percentage, sorry. being estimated at 15% or even higher for this virus. percent wise, nowhere near flu - 36 million got sick last year, and 500,000 were hospitalized. what's that, a little over 1%?
This has been pointed out before but as more testing is done these percentages will look very different. More testing equals more positive cases. However, as time goes on and there are more cases, the percentage of fatalities will decrease. And this doesn’t take in consideration the thousands or even millions of people doctors believe likely had the virus without even knowing.

I assume when we look back on this in the months and years to come, the numbers will be far different than what people are currently fearing. Time will tell.
PlayerRep
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mcg wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:44 pm
Here is a good article. It's way too long to cut and paste here, but read it:

https://slate.com/technology/2020/03/ar ... virus.html
"Epidemiologist Behind Highly-Cited Coronavirus Model Drastically Revises Model"

This is the guy and study that caused Trump to reconsider and the UK to completely change its strategy. This article, or blurbs, is a MUST READ. Now he's completely backing away from his numbers. A friend of mine is guessing that the big excuse will become: "My model was wrong".

"Epidemiologist Neil Ferguson, who created the highly-cited Imperial College London coronavirus model, which has been cited by organizations like The New York Times and has been instrumental in governmental policy decision-making, offered a massive revision to his model on Wednesday.

Ferguson’s model projected 2.2 million dead people in the United States and 500,000 in the U.K. from COVID-19 if no action were taken to slow the virus and blunt its curve."

However, after just one day of ordered lockdowns in the U.K., Ferguson is presenting drastically downgraded estimates, revealing that far more people likely have the virus than his team figured. Now, the epidemiologist predicts, hospitals will be just fine taking on COVID-19 patients and estimates 20,000 or far fewer people will die from the virus itself or from its agitation of other ailments, as reported by New Scientist Wednesday.

Ferguson thus dropped his prediction from 500,000 dead to 20,000.

“This is a remarkable turn from Neil Ferguson, who led the [Imperial College] authors who warned of 500,000 UK deaths — and who has now himself tested positive for #COVID,” started Berenson.

“Ferguson now predicts that the epidemic in the U.K. will peak and subside within ‘two to three weeks’ — last week’s paper said 18+ months of quarantine would be necessary,” the former reporter highlighted.

“One last point here: Ferguson gives the lockdown credit, which is *interesting* — the UK only began [its] lockdown 2 days ago, and the theory is that lockdowns take 2 weeks or more to work,” stressed Berenson. “Not surprisingly, this testimony has received no attention in the US — I found it only in UK papers. Team Apocalypse is not interested.”

“I am surprised that there has been such unqualified acceptance of the Imperial model,” Gupta said, according to the Financial Times.

Professor Gupta led a team of researchers at Oxford in a modeling study which suggests that the virus has been invisibly spreading for at least a month earlier than suspected, concluding that as many as half of the people in the United Kingdom have already been infected by COVID-19.

If her model is accurate, fewer than one in a thousand who’ve been infected with COVID-19 become sick enough to need hospitalization, leaving the vast majority with mild cases or free of symptoms.

In other words, Ferguson’s highly influential initial model was off by orders of magnitude."

https://www.dailywire.com/news/epidemio ... ises-model
PlayerRep
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ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:01 pm
argh! wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:18 am
PlayerRep wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:48 am
argh! wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:23 am


except the flu doesn't have anywhere near that hospitalization rate.
CDC flu stats. These are averaged (or something similar) annual numbers since 2010.

"CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."
i meant by percentage, sorry. being estimated at 15% or even higher for this virus. percent wise, nowhere near flu - 36 million got sick last year, and 500,000 were hospitalized. what's that, a little over 1%?
This has been pointed out before but as more testing is done these percentages will look very different. More testing equals more positive cases. However, as time goes on and there are more cases, the percentage of fatalities will decrease. And this doesn’t take in consideration the thousands or even millions of people doctors believe likely had the virus without even knowing.

I assume when we look back on this in the months and years to come, the numbers will be far different than what people are currently fearing. Time will tell.
Look at my post right after your post, and the article I cite. This UK guy backing off his number is huge. The US and UK completely changed their view based on his earlier number, which had been a big increase from a much earlier number. Looks like he completely blew it.
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Cuervohola
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cclarkblues wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:28 pm
PlayerRep wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 1:03 pm
My wife just did a video (Zoom) yoga class with her favorite Peak yogi. Said she noticed there were 59 people on it at one time.
Our club, Granite fitness is offering a number of classes on their YouTube channel. Fitness gurus like Les Mills also has some free offerings during this time. It's a shame our club closed just as I was getting huge...
Get a Bowflex. It will last you about 2 weeks until you max it out and then it will become what it was made for... Hanging clothes.
The Only Thing Congressional "Leaders" Do Is Rename Post Offices and Highways
ilovethecats
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PlayerRep wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:04 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:01 pm
argh! wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:18 am
PlayerRep wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 10:48 am


CDC flu stats. These are averaged (or something similar) annual numbers since 2010.

"CDC estimates that influenza has resulted in between 9 million – 45 million illnesses, between 140,000 – 810,000 hospitalizations and between 12,000 – 61,000 deaths annually since 2010."
i meant by percentage, sorry. being estimated at 15% or even higher for this virus. percent wise, nowhere near flu - 36 million got sick last year, and 500,000 were hospitalized. what's that, a little over 1%?
This has been pointed out before but as more testing is done these percentages will look very different. More testing equals more positive cases. However, as time goes on and there are more cases, the percentage of fatalities will decrease. And this doesn’t take in consideration the thousands or even millions of people doctors believe likely had the virus without even knowing.

I assume when we look back on this in the months and years to come, the numbers will be far different than what people are currently fearing. Time will tell.
Look at my post right after your post, and the article I cite. This UK guy backing off his number is huge. The US and UK completely changed their view based on his earlier number, which had been a big increase from a much earlier number. Looks like he completely blew it.
Interesting article and I tend to follow that school of thought.

Obviously there are many unknowns right now. I do t pretend to have answers. But the predictions of deaths and hospitalizations early on I thought were far too high. And I think many of the predictions made even today are still too high and based on fear.

Time will tell but I fully expect the deaths and hospitalizations when all is said and done will be much smaller than many people think.

I’m also interested in seeing the data down the road when they know more about many of us who have had the virus and had no idea. I think when they are able to go back and analyze the data and consider all of these cases it will really put this entire thing in perspective.

That said, I’m fine following the rules laid out for us if it means we’re back up and running! Closures are now until the 17th of April and I am more than ready to get back to normal!
PlayerRep
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ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:21 pm
PlayerRep wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:04 pm
ilovethecats wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 2:01 pm
argh! wrote:
Thu Mar 26, 2020 11:18 am


i meant by percentage, sorry. being estimated at 15% or even higher for this virus. percent wise, nowhere near flu - 36 million got sick last year, and 500,000 were hospitalized. what's that, a little over 1%?
This has been pointed out before but as more testing is done these percentages will look very different. More testing equals more positive cases. However, as time goes on and there are more cases, the percentage of fatalities will decrease. And this doesn’t take in consideration the thousands or even millions of people doctors believe likely had the virus without even knowing.

I assume when we look back on this in the months and years to come, the numbers will be far different than what people are currently fearing. Time will tell.
Look at my post right after your post, and the article I cite. This UK guy backing off his number is huge. The US and UK completely changed their view based on his earlier number, which had been a big increase from a much earlier number. Looks like he completely blew it.
Interesting article and I tend to follow that school of thought.

Obviously there are many unknowns right now. I do t pretend to have answers. But the predictions of deaths and hospitalizations early on I thought were far too high. And I think many of the predictions made even today are still too high and based on fear.

Time will tell but I fully expect the deaths and hospitalizations when all is said and done will be much smaller than many people think.

I’m also interested in seeing the data down the road when they know more about many of us who have had the virus and had no idea. I think when they are able to go back and analyze the data and consider all of these cases it will really put this entire thing in perspective.

That said, I’m fine following the rules laid out for us if it means we’re back up and running! Closures are now until the 17th of April and I am more than ready to get back to normal!
Basically, my view too.
PlayerRep
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"Guidelines for Classifying U.S. Counties by Coronavirus Risk

Criteria designed to help local officials decide whether to increase or relax social-distancing rules"

"The Trump administration is planning to issue guidelines categorizing counties across the nation as high-risk, medium-risk or low-risk to help state and local authorities decide whether to bolster or relax social distancing measures intended to combat the novel coronavirus.

In a letter to governors on Thursday, President Trump said the administration’s growing testing capabilities would enable it to publish, in consultation with public-health officials and scientists, criteria for classifying counties by risk, in the hopes that some parts of the country may be able to return to work sooner than others.

“This new information will drive the next phase in our war against this invisible enemy,” he wrote. “As we enhance protections against the virus, Americans across the country are hoping the day will soon arrive when they can resume their normal economic, social and religious lives.”

Criteria designed to help local officials decide whether to increase or relax social-distancing rules"

https://www.wsj.com/articles/trump-admi ... _lead_pos6 paywall problem
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