This is my third version of this...Dang Technology...Computer problems all week. Durr...
Big Sky Conference Tournament Factoids:
Round 1:
There could have been more, a lot more, but technology got in the way. Hope this primer is sufficient enough for what you all need.
GF24
| Seed | Team | The Road | Hot or Not for BSC | Why they can win: | Why they won't: |
1 | Northern Colorado | Day 1: Bye Day 2: v. 9/10 W | Hot. Won 4 in a row. 4-0 vs WSU/SS | 1. Has an offense that won't quit. 1st in scoring and FG%. 2. They do small things well. Rebounding, Turnovers. | 1. The usage rate of their big 3 is fairly high and get 75% of scoring. 2. Teams get looks. Middle of the road defense. |
2 | Montana | Day 1: Bye Day 2: v. 7/8 W | Very Hot Won 11 of 12. 4-0 v. EWU/NAU | 1. Depth (8-9 guys) and versatility in rotation and in scoring (6 above 9ppg). 2. Shoot well in all phases. | 1. Rebounding or lack there of. 2. Gives up a ton of shots. 2nd most in BSC play. |
3 | Portland State | Day 1,2: Bye Day 3: v. Idaho | Depends. Won last 3. Swept UI. | 1. Best in conference half court defense. Leads league in ppg and FG defense. 2. Monsters on the glass. Great at limiting possessions for the opposition. | 1. Sarcastically? They aren't in Portland. 2. They aren't a good perimeter shooting team or a FT shooting team. |
4 | Idaho State | Day 1,2: Bye Day 3: v. MSU | Hot. Won 4 of last 5. Split with MSU. | 1. Dylan Darling. 2. Rebounding. Relentless on the offensive end. Leads league at 13.2 orpg. | 1. Lack depth in scoring. 2. Struggle getting defensive stops. Worst in conference FG% defense. |
5 | Montana State | Day 1,2: Bye Day 3: v. ISU | Mid. Won 2. Lost 2. Won 2. Split with ISU. | 1. Pace of play. Accustomed to playing slow gritty, basketball games. They defend. 2. They get bench contributions. Best in conference. | 1. Like Montana, they aren't a great rebounding team. 2. Lack third option for scoring. |
6 | Idaho | Day 1,2: Bye Day 3: v. PSU | Cold. Lost 6 of 9. 0-2 v. PSU | 1. They get to the line, and they make it. Best team in the conference. 2. Their depth. Rotate a ton of players. | 1. Lowest D-Rating in the conference. Teams shoot too well. 2. They aren't efficient on offense. High volume shooting team. |
7 | Northern Arizona | Day 1: v. EWU | Warm. 6-6. 2-0 v. EWU | 1. One of the best trio's in the conference (Towt-McLaughlin-Jackson). 2. Good Offensive rebounding team (3rd). | 1. They don't shoot FT's well. Has cost them in close games. 2. 9th in conference in bench output. Leans heavily on starting rotation. |
8 | Eastern Washington | Day 1: v. NAU | Cold. L5, W4, L5 0-2 v. NAU | 1. Disrupts offenses with active hands and forces a good number of turnovers. 2. One of the better combined defenses in the conference. | 1. Turnover the ball too much, too many lost possessions. 2. Way too many fouls. Nearly 40 more FTA by opposition. |
9 | Weber State | Day 1: v. SS | Cold. 3-8. Split with Sacramento. | 1. Blaise Threatt. Top ten in Rebounding, Scoring and Assists. 2. Great Rebounding team. At or near the top in conference in all rebounding categories. | 1. Lack of scoring beyond Threat. Lowest Asst % in conference. 2. Struggle scoring and don't play fast enough from behind. |
10 | Sacramento State | Day 1: v. WSU | Very Cold. 1-10 Split with Weber. | 1. Comfortable in half court scenarios. Forces teams to work the ball. 2. One of the better in conference at getting steals. Can really cause problems. | 1. Turnover the ball way too much. 2. Teams get easy looks at the basket when they get broke down. |
Big Sky Conference Tournament Factoids:
- What teams are better suited for the slog that is the conference tournament?
- There are three things that tend to succeed in conference tournaments: Defense, Depth and Guard Play.
- Best Defensive Group: Portland State probably is going to scare the living bejesus out of anyone they play because of how good they are on the defensive end. They are the only team to beat both UM and NC, and in part because nothing is ever easy on the offensive end against PSU. In tournament games that rarely if ever have flow, PSU is a solid choice for the tournament. Helps when you have conference DPOY Tre-Vaughn Minott as well.
- Dest Depth: Montana has got key minutes from nearly their whole roster during conference play. Including rarely used Jalen Foy and Zack Davidson. In reality they have been able to cycle 9 rather consistently and get at least 20 out of 7 players and only one person who gets over 30 minutes (Moore) per game. Moreover, they have got 6 players averaging at 10ppg in conference play.
- Guard Play: This is a tough one. Northern Colorado has 1st team Jaron Rillie and Langston Reynolds along with defensive 1st team player in Zach Bloch. Both Rillie and Reynolds are multi-tools (can both play on off ball) and are great facilitators and it has led to one of the most efficient offenses we've seen in BSC play this year. Montana has Whitney, Johnson, Moore, and Williams (Conference 6th man) that they can all put on the floor at the same time along with power guard Joe Pridgen (LOL) who happened to be 1st team all conference). Not to mention they can run out Austin Patterson that gives the Griz good minutes as well. Consistent front end talent goes to NC, the depth of options goes to Montana.
- Beyond that it really comes down to what horses do you have, and can you lean on them.
- Idaho State has Dylan Darling is going to make lives tough for anyone who plays Idaho State. They aren't going to struggle to get him touches and you can expect him to put up 20-25 shots in every game that he's in. Which makes Idaho state my choice for....Cinderella. I generally prefer teams with excellent guard play and when you have one of the conferences best volume scorers in Dylan Darling (Big Sky Conference MVP/Newcomer of the year), that makes of that blob between 3rd and 9th, makes them a good as bet as anyone to cause problems. Plus ISU is a great offensive rebounding team and they are supremely good at getting extra possessions.
- There are three things that tend to succeed in conference tournaments: Defense, Depth and Guard Play.
- Which team outside the favorites is the one team no-one wants to face? Portland State. PSU should be a clear candidate to win the conference because of the defensive style and size, but they've been so awful away from Portland that it is hard to get a handle on which team will show up. They went 9-0 at home in conference and 2-7 on the road. Yet they are so uncomfortable to play against, regardless of location and they alter so much how teams run their offenses.
- Who are five candidates for BSC Tournament MVP?
- Langston Reynolds (Northern Colorado). He's probably got an inside line (because of NC's performance) for CPOY, and he impacts the game in so many different ways. Was top ten in the conference in scoring, rebounds and assists during conference play.
- Money Williams (Montana). If there was one revelation in the last weekend of BSC play, that Montana has a guy they can lean on when it matters. Moore and Johnson were banged up and he willed Montana back against PSU (only to run out of gas) and was a core reason why they battled back against EWU in Missoula.
- Dylan Darling (Idaho State): If he has any vapor left in the gas tank, the conferences scoring leader is going to get chances to carry his team. He's a minutes eater, he distributes the basketball (leads conference in assists), and is a high usage rate player. He's the one player that can carry his team to victory.
- Jaron Rillie (Northern Colorado). He's one of the best facilitators in the conference, one of the best perimeter shooters, and benefits from teams need to focus on Hawthorne and Reynolds.
- Tre-Vaughn Minott (Portland State): If you have to select a big that could take over the tournament, it would be Minott. The DPOY is a menace down low and has the type of offensive game to brutalize teams.
Round 1:
- Weber State v. Sacramento State: Healthy Weber State is a clear favorite in this game. Since they aren't, this is very much likely going to be the slowest played game in the tournament. You can expect the lowest number of possessions and a game played in the mid to low 50's. They split their season series with each team winning on the other's home court. Expect Weber State to lean on Threatt, and most of Sacramento State's possessions to go through Holt. Weber has more scoring and that likely is going to be the difference. WSU might be playing for Duft's job, in spite of the injuries, and they've played a ton better since they've turned over the keys to offense to Threat.
- Northern Arizona v. Eastern Washington: Easily the two hardest teams to figure out in the conference. Eastern the streakiest, Northern Arizona just wins a couple, loses a couple. NAU probably has the all the top level talent to be a top 3 seed but like last year just don't have the results. NAU scores a lot easier and can from three different sources, plus they can lean on McLaughlin. Games are won or lost in the margins and Eastern has been so sloppy with the basketball and has a ton of empty possessions.
- Idaho State v. Montana State: Best team defense v. the best offensive player in the conference. If there is an achilles heel for the Cats is they require most of their offense to go through Walker to be effective. ISU has a lot of length they can throw at Walker, and that will put a lot of pressure on Agbonkpolo and McMahon. In their last meeting, MSU made Darling and O'Neil a volume shooters (8-23/8-15) and effectively limited the rest of the squad to 8 made shots. Montana State is likely going to want to take some of the air out of this game and make ISU play defense.
- Portland State v. Idaho: Portland State is weird, and this will be a quasi-road game for them. Idaho can run a lot of different offensive looks and they only have two players in the top 20 in usage rate. When you play PSU, the more decentralized your offense is the better. Idaho can get a lot of scoring from different personnel and have been vastly better from 3 lately. PSU's problem is that they aren't all that good offensively. That being said Idaho isn't a defensive stalwart and PSU when they struggle they end up a volume shooting offense. Isaiah Johnson ate the Vandals alive (10-13 from the floor) the last time out. This is a good matchup for the Vikings and their size and athleticism probably are a enough to win this game.
There could have been more, a lot more, but technology got in the way. Hope this primer is sufficient enough for what you all need.
GF24
