It’s officially cat week, and the Grizzlies are headed to play the #2 Bobcats, one of just 2 teams in all of the FCS that have not yet lost a game. MSU is on a roll coming off a huge road win against Davis, they’ve already won the Big Sky, and are eyeing a 1 or 2 seed which will ensure home field throughout the playoffs.
Looking at MSU statistically, their numbers conference wide and across the whole FCS show.
When you look at their rankings in the Big Sky: best rushing offense, best total offense, best scoring offense, best rushing defense, best passing defense, best overall defense, and best scoring defense. The cats offense, particularly their run game, gets a lot of talk but their defense has really done well, especially as the season has gone on.
Nationally, 2nd best rushing offense, best scoring offense, 4th best RZ offense, and the best overall offense. Defensively 7th best scoring defense, 16th best rushing defense, 12th best total defense, and the 3rd best 3rd down offense. This team has built themselves to win the national title and are one of a handful that (I think) can do it this year.
Montana State Bobcats
35-31 win vs New Mexico: “The miracle in New Mexico? Hmm… doesn’t really work. I think a lot of us watched this one bc it was a week 0 game. New Mexico was keeping MSU at bay for a while and leading 31-14 going into the 4th quarter. However, MSU mounted their comeback while NM fell apart, with WRs repeatedly dropping 3rd down conversion passes and missing a field goal attempt. The cats in the 4th would score to make it 31-28 with just 4:30 left, they’d hold the Lobos to a short possession and then go 90 yards with 1:59 in the game to score the game winning TD. It was a sloppy game in many regards. UNM would score 2 touchdowns on scoop and score plays. 14 points directly off turnovers helps paint the picture when you see MSU outgained UNM 567 to 324. As much as Griz fans want to push back on, this is a quality win, it’s an FBS school and New Mexico just beat ranked Washington State. I think UNM is bowl eligible, and I know they will be if they beat Hawaii this week.
31-7 win vs Utah Tech: The one thing Utah Tech is really good at is losing games, and they were in mid season form for this one. Cats ran for 340, passed for 150, and held Utah Tech to just 176 total yards of offense. MSU missed a few field goals or else they could have had even more points on the board.
41-24 win vs Maine: It was 35-0 in the blink of an eye (8:29 before halftime) as MSU had this one in the bag fast. Maine found some offense later but the game was never close. It was yet another big rushing day for MSU, 366 on the ground. After this game in a few weeks Maine would beat (then) ranked Albany and a few weeks later then 5th ranked Villanova. They were a bubble team until a loss to Elon last week.
52-13 win vs Mercyhurst: Mercyhurst is an FCS program, FYI. Cats were very balanced, about 250 rushing and 250 passing each. I believe this was the one a punt was blocked and returned for a TD by Zac Crews. Mercyhurst has now won 3 games in total this year.
37-17 win @ Idaho State: In Pocatello it’s an odd box score. Cats go up 17-0 pretty quickly, right at the half ISU scores and it’s 17-7. The third quarter the teams just trade punts – ISU bends but doesn’t break against the cat offense. Really early in the 4th ISU makes a field goal and it’s 17-10… but… MSU on the next play takes a pass 70 yards for a score, forces a 3 and out, and scores again on the next drive. This was the game the cats made bad beats because ISU would answer but MSU would score again on the last play of the game. The drive was kind of called out b/c MSU, up 31-17 at that point, had the ball and was calling timeouts to continue more plays, despite being in the kneel down situation. I have no major issue with it, just an interesting thing you don’t normally see. Cats in the game were held generally in check compared to what they normally do, just 410 total yards. ISU had a little success passing (210 yards) but also tossed a pick and only got 1 first down until their 5 possession of the game.
55-13 win vs Northern Colorado: An expected outcome. Cats put up 501 yards of offense. I’m not seeing why in the box score but UNC is credited with just 1 yard rushing on 38 attempts. Yet on their individual sheet it shows their players had a net of 112 rushing but the “team” had 2 rushes for a loss of 111 yards. I went and pulled up the game highlight, the UNC QB fumbled the ball out of the endzone for a touchback, but it was credited as a 97 yard loss, which it wasn’t. Oh well.
38-7 win vs Idaho: Idaho’s top ranked defense couldn’t slow down the MSU ground game. Cats ran for 360 and their defense held Idaho to just under 270 total yards. Idaho had 3 turnovers on downs, would lose both a fumble and an interception and wouldn’t score until their last drive.
44-14 win @ Portland State: Cats called off the dogs when it was 41-0 in the 3rd quarter. 607 yards of offense (323 rush / 284 pass). They had just 1 drive end in a turnover on downs, every other drive, save the end of the game, they scored.
42-28 win @ Eastern Washington: MSU would go up 21-7 and then hold a 28-14 lead at the half. EWU was playing without their starting QB and was kind of limited on their possessions, just 4 in the first half, one ending in a punt, two for TDs, and the other an interception. One of EWU’s TDs was an end-around run by their stud returner who went 75 yards to paydirt. However, in the 3rd quarter EWU would score, force a turnover on downs against MSU, and score again – tying it up at 28-28 with just 1:26 left in the 3rd quarter. On the ensuing play TD Tommy would take the first snap 76 yards to the house for MSU to regain the lead. From there the cat defense would force a punt, EWU would toss a pick, and then the cats would once again score, this time on a 61 yard pass, to put the game out of reach. EWU ran for 225 – but keep in mind 75 of that came on 1 play, and another 62 of that came from their rushing QB (the same guy who had a rushing TD on us). 316 on the ground for MSU, 181 in the air – this was the game Tommy threw his 1 and only pick of the year.
49-7 win vs Sacramento State: At the start of the year this was kind of billed as the front end of a brutal gauntlet for MSU, but as it turns out fraudulent Sac State came with no fight left in them. Cats would RUN for 511 yards. 6 of Sac’s 11 drives were 3 and outs.
30-28 win vs UC Davis: A lot of us saw this game too – or maybe switched it off to only be called back to it as MSU went from down 8-0, to up 30-8, to then having to pick off a game tying 2 point conversion with just 34 second left in the game or else run risk of overtime. Davis was dead in the water in this game as they would lose a fumble, toss a pick, and give up multiple wide open big plays to MSU. The cats would get a little complacent though, with a comfy lead their last 4 meaningful possessions would end with punts, and all 4 combined would only account for 74 yards of offense. Maybe the most confusing was opting to punt, up 30-15, on the UCD 43 facing a 4th and 2. After that punt UCD would score, get an onsides, and score again – but as mentioned the 2 point would fail and MSU would hang on. Davis’s stout rush defense would hold MSU to just 159 on the ground and 4.5 YPC – that’s pretty big! Meanwhile the Davis offense would tally about 325 passing yards. MSU did take a punt to the house and over the course of 6 consecutive possessions would hold Davis to punting, or a turnover.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (231 for GRIZ vs 187 for MSU)
Rushing yards per game MSU (209 for GRIZ vs 332 for MSU)
Total offense MSU (440 for GRIZ vs 519 for MSU)
Passing yards allowed per game MSU (218 for GRIZ vs 174 for MSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game MSU (138 for GRIZ vs 105 for MSU)
Total defense MSU (356 for GRIZ vs 279 for MSU)
Griz only get 1 here, on their passing yards. MSU grabs the rest.
Offense points scored MSU (36 for GRIZ vs 42.4 for MSU)
Defense points allowed MSU (24.2 for GRIZ vs 16.5 for MSU)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+7 for GRIZ / +4 for MSU)
Field goal % MSU (69% for GRIZ vs 75% for MSU)
Punt Returns GRIZ (14.4 yards for GRIZ vs 12.6 yards for MSU)
Kick Returns GRIZ (22 yards for GRIZ vs 17.6 yards for MSU)
T.O.P. MSU (30:02 for GRIZ vs 33:34 for MSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (54% GRIZ / 55% MSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) MSU (70% GRIZ / 80% MSU)
3rd down offense MSU – (45.8% for GRIZ / 57% for MSU)
3rd down defense MSU – (37.2% allowed for GRIZ vs 33.6% allowed for MSU)
Yikes.
MSU gets 7, Griz get 4. That puts the final at MSU 12 – Montana 5
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Bozeman State Players to Watch:
#4 Tommy Mellott, QB – Touchdown Tommy has redefined his game and has hit some new heights this year. I think he’s the front runner for Big Sky MVP and should be a finalist for the Walter Payton. This year Tommy is averaging just under 60 ypg rushing and has 10 rushing TDs, he’s passing for about 170 per game and has 21 TDs to just 1 INT. Looking at Tommy’s stats from the year before he was only passing for about 115/game, this year he has 62 rush attempts, last year even splitting reps and missing 3 games he had 85 rush attempts. The redesigned focus on still using him as the athlete he is, but reducing a few more runs/hits has really paid off. His rushing TD total is up, his YPG is up, and his passing yards are up by over 40% over last year.
#22 Scottre Humphrey, RB – A 5-10, 210 pound back, Humphrey is one of the best in the FCS. He’s got 1221 rushing this season and he’s got 13 TDs on the ground. He’s only been held under 100 yards three times this whole season, two of those games were MSU blowout wins where he didn’t really need to do too much. The last one was the Davis game where he seemingly left with an injury, however he’s on top of the depth chart this week and Vigen says he’s good to go. He’s a physical runner and a strong finisher.
#8 Rohan Jones, TE – A 6-3, 235 pound TE, Jones has caught at least 1 pass every single game. He leads the team with 410 receiving yards and has a team best 7 receiving TDs. He’s coming off his 2nd best game of the year against Davis, he’ll be good for 3+ catches and statistically is the cats biggest RZ threat.
#23 Adam Jones, RB – It’s going to be 4 years that Griz fans will probably be reminded of one of many that got away from us. Missoula Sentinel product Jones has exploded on the scene as an RS Frosh, he’s 2nd on the team in rushing with 731 yards, and 3rd best with 7 rushing TDs. He’s a guy that we’ve seen rip off several big runs this year already. Jones is also a pass catching threat too, he’s got 126 yards and 1 TD this season through the air. Jones is a guy we’ll probably see fielding some kick returns too, he’s got a solid average of 21 yards per return.
#6 Ty McCullouch, WR – A 6-1, 180 pound WR transfer from Colorado State. You will see him catch passes and run the ball (most likely). He’s got a team high 28 catches and has 374 receiving yards, as well as 4 receiving TDs. On the ground he’s got 152 rushing yards and 1 TD. He’s even 1-1 passing for a TD there!
#14 Taco Dowler, WR – “MSU’s Junior Bergen”. Dowler is a threat all over the field. He’s a damned dangerous punt returner, nearly 13.5 yards per return and he housed a punt for a touchdown against Davis. Dowler is 3rd on the team with 330 receiving, and has the 2nd most receiving TDs with 6.
#32 Julius Davis, RB – If healthy (which he presumably is) Davis could be the Cats secret weapon in this game. A 3rd option / rotation at running back that finally saw his first extensive amount of play against Davis. He’s another physical runner, having played in just 3 games this season he’s averaging close to 90 yards per game and has 3 TDs already. If Humphrey is still dinged up then Davis can help lighten that load.
#41 Brody Grebe, DE – The preseason defensive MVP, he leads the team in sacks with 6 and is tied for tops with 7.5 TFLs. He has a team best 6 QB hits and actually leads the team in pass breakups too (presumably hitting passes at the line). He’s a 6-3, 250 pound end and plays with his hair on fire all the time.
#42 McCade O’Reilly, LB - A local Bozeman kid, the 6 foot tall, 220 backer leads the team in tackles with 54, he’s also got 7.5 TFLs and has 3 sacks this season. He’s forced 1 fumble and also has 6 QB hits – watch for him to blitz a lot!
#26 Rylan Ortt, S – Yet another Sentinel kid, we’ve seen Ortt for a few years now, I think he had a pick against Montana in 2022 and you can imagine the reaction that got from cat players, and cat fans – especially Ty Gregorak haha. Ortt is right behind O’Reilly with 52 total tackles, he’s got 3 TFLs, he has 1 interception, 1 forced / recovered fumble, and he’s even blocked a kick this season.
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Looking at MSU statistically, their numbers conference wide and across the whole FCS show.
When you look at their rankings in the Big Sky: best rushing offense, best total offense, best scoring offense, best rushing defense, best passing defense, best overall defense, and best scoring defense. The cats offense, particularly their run game, gets a lot of talk but their defense has really done well, especially as the season has gone on.
Nationally, 2nd best rushing offense, best scoring offense, 4th best RZ offense, and the best overall offense. Defensively 7th best scoring defense, 16th best rushing defense, 12th best total defense, and the 3rd best 3rd down offense. This team has built themselves to win the national title and are one of a handful that (I think) can do it this year.
Montana State Bobcats
35-31 win vs New Mexico: “The miracle in New Mexico? Hmm… doesn’t really work. I think a lot of us watched this one bc it was a week 0 game. New Mexico was keeping MSU at bay for a while and leading 31-14 going into the 4th quarter. However, MSU mounted their comeback while NM fell apart, with WRs repeatedly dropping 3rd down conversion passes and missing a field goal attempt. The cats in the 4th would score to make it 31-28 with just 4:30 left, they’d hold the Lobos to a short possession and then go 90 yards with 1:59 in the game to score the game winning TD. It was a sloppy game in many regards. UNM would score 2 touchdowns on scoop and score plays. 14 points directly off turnovers helps paint the picture when you see MSU outgained UNM 567 to 324. As much as Griz fans want to push back on, this is a quality win, it’s an FBS school and New Mexico just beat ranked Washington State. I think UNM is bowl eligible, and I know they will be if they beat Hawaii this week.
31-7 win vs Utah Tech: The one thing Utah Tech is really good at is losing games, and they were in mid season form for this one. Cats ran for 340, passed for 150, and held Utah Tech to just 176 total yards of offense. MSU missed a few field goals or else they could have had even more points on the board.
41-24 win vs Maine: It was 35-0 in the blink of an eye (8:29 before halftime) as MSU had this one in the bag fast. Maine found some offense later but the game was never close. It was yet another big rushing day for MSU, 366 on the ground. After this game in a few weeks Maine would beat (then) ranked Albany and a few weeks later then 5th ranked Villanova. They were a bubble team until a loss to Elon last week.
52-13 win vs Mercyhurst: Mercyhurst is an FCS program, FYI. Cats were very balanced, about 250 rushing and 250 passing each. I believe this was the one a punt was blocked and returned for a TD by Zac Crews. Mercyhurst has now won 3 games in total this year.
37-17 win @ Idaho State: In Pocatello it’s an odd box score. Cats go up 17-0 pretty quickly, right at the half ISU scores and it’s 17-7. The third quarter the teams just trade punts – ISU bends but doesn’t break against the cat offense. Really early in the 4th ISU makes a field goal and it’s 17-10… but… MSU on the next play takes a pass 70 yards for a score, forces a 3 and out, and scores again on the next drive. This was the game the cats made bad beats because ISU would answer but MSU would score again on the last play of the game. The drive was kind of called out b/c MSU, up 31-17 at that point, had the ball and was calling timeouts to continue more plays, despite being in the kneel down situation. I have no major issue with it, just an interesting thing you don’t normally see. Cats in the game were held generally in check compared to what they normally do, just 410 total yards. ISU had a little success passing (210 yards) but also tossed a pick and only got 1 first down until their 5 possession of the game.
55-13 win vs Northern Colorado: An expected outcome. Cats put up 501 yards of offense. I’m not seeing why in the box score but UNC is credited with just 1 yard rushing on 38 attempts. Yet on their individual sheet it shows their players had a net of 112 rushing but the “team” had 2 rushes for a loss of 111 yards. I went and pulled up the game highlight, the UNC QB fumbled the ball out of the endzone for a touchback, but it was credited as a 97 yard loss, which it wasn’t. Oh well.
38-7 win vs Idaho: Idaho’s top ranked defense couldn’t slow down the MSU ground game. Cats ran for 360 and their defense held Idaho to just under 270 total yards. Idaho had 3 turnovers on downs, would lose both a fumble and an interception and wouldn’t score until their last drive.
44-14 win @ Portland State: Cats called off the dogs when it was 41-0 in the 3rd quarter. 607 yards of offense (323 rush / 284 pass). They had just 1 drive end in a turnover on downs, every other drive, save the end of the game, they scored.
42-28 win @ Eastern Washington: MSU would go up 21-7 and then hold a 28-14 lead at the half. EWU was playing without their starting QB and was kind of limited on their possessions, just 4 in the first half, one ending in a punt, two for TDs, and the other an interception. One of EWU’s TDs was an end-around run by their stud returner who went 75 yards to paydirt. However, in the 3rd quarter EWU would score, force a turnover on downs against MSU, and score again – tying it up at 28-28 with just 1:26 left in the 3rd quarter. On the ensuing play TD Tommy would take the first snap 76 yards to the house for MSU to regain the lead. From there the cat defense would force a punt, EWU would toss a pick, and then the cats would once again score, this time on a 61 yard pass, to put the game out of reach. EWU ran for 225 – but keep in mind 75 of that came on 1 play, and another 62 of that came from their rushing QB (the same guy who had a rushing TD on us). 316 on the ground for MSU, 181 in the air – this was the game Tommy threw his 1 and only pick of the year.
49-7 win vs Sacramento State: At the start of the year this was kind of billed as the front end of a brutal gauntlet for MSU, but as it turns out fraudulent Sac State came with no fight left in them. Cats would RUN for 511 yards. 6 of Sac’s 11 drives were 3 and outs.
30-28 win vs UC Davis: A lot of us saw this game too – or maybe switched it off to only be called back to it as MSU went from down 8-0, to up 30-8, to then having to pick off a game tying 2 point conversion with just 34 second left in the game or else run risk of overtime. Davis was dead in the water in this game as they would lose a fumble, toss a pick, and give up multiple wide open big plays to MSU. The cats would get a little complacent though, with a comfy lead their last 4 meaningful possessions would end with punts, and all 4 combined would only account for 74 yards of offense. Maybe the most confusing was opting to punt, up 30-15, on the UCD 43 facing a 4th and 2. After that punt UCD would score, get an onsides, and score again – but as mentioned the 2 point would fail and MSU would hang on. Davis’s stout rush defense would hold MSU to just 159 on the ground and 4.5 YPC – that’s pretty big! Meanwhile the Davis offense would tally about 325 passing yards. MSU did take a punt to the house and over the course of 6 consecutive possessions would hold Davis to punting, or a turnover.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (231 for GRIZ vs 187 for MSU)
Rushing yards per game MSU (209 for GRIZ vs 332 for MSU)
Total offense MSU (440 for GRIZ vs 519 for MSU)
Passing yards allowed per game MSU (218 for GRIZ vs 174 for MSU)
Rushing yards allowed per game MSU (138 for GRIZ vs 105 for MSU)
Total defense MSU (356 for GRIZ vs 279 for MSU)
Griz only get 1 here, on their passing yards. MSU grabs the rest.
Offense points scored MSU (36 for GRIZ vs 42.4 for MSU)
Defense points allowed MSU (24.2 for GRIZ vs 16.5 for MSU)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+7 for GRIZ / +4 for MSU)
Field goal % MSU (69% for GRIZ vs 75% for MSU)
Punt Returns GRIZ (14.4 yards for GRIZ vs 12.6 yards for MSU)
Kick Returns GRIZ (22 yards for GRIZ vs 17.6 yards for MSU)
T.O.P. MSU (30:02 for GRIZ vs 33:34 for MSU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (54% GRIZ / 55% MSU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) MSU (70% GRIZ / 80% MSU)
3rd down offense MSU – (45.8% for GRIZ / 57% for MSU)
3rd down defense MSU – (37.2% allowed for GRIZ vs 33.6% allowed for MSU)
Yikes.
MSU gets 7, Griz get 4. That puts the final at MSU 12 – Montana 5
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Bozeman State Players to Watch:
#4 Tommy Mellott, QB – Touchdown Tommy has redefined his game and has hit some new heights this year. I think he’s the front runner for Big Sky MVP and should be a finalist for the Walter Payton. This year Tommy is averaging just under 60 ypg rushing and has 10 rushing TDs, he’s passing for about 170 per game and has 21 TDs to just 1 INT. Looking at Tommy’s stats from the year before he was only passing for about 115/game, this year he has 62 rush attempts, last year even splitting reps and missing 3 games he had 85 rush attempts. The redesigned focus on still using him as the athlete he is, but reducing a few more runs/hits has really paid off. His rushing TD total is up, his YPG is up, and his passing yards are up by over 40% over last year.
#22 Scottre Humphrey, RB – A 5-10, 210 pound back, Humphrey is one of the best in the FCS. He’s got 1221 rushing this season and he’s got 13 TDs on the ground. He’s only been held under 100 yards three times this whole season, two of those games were MSU blowout wins where he didn’t really need to do too much. The last one was the Davis game where he seemingly left with an injury, however he’s on top of the depth chart this week and Vigen says he’s good to go. He’s a physical runner and a strong finisher.
#8 Rohan Jones, TE – A 6-3, 235 pound TE, Jones has caught at least 1 pass every single game. He leads the team with 410 receiving yards and has a team best 7 receiving TDs. He’s coming off his 2nd best game of the year against Davis, he’ll be good for 3+ catches and statistically is the cats biggest RZ threat.
#23 Adam Jones, RB – It’s going to be 4 years that Griz fans will probably be reminded of one of many that got away from us. Missoula Sentinel product Jones has exploded on the scene as an RS Frosh, he’s 2nd on the team in rushing with 731 yards, and 3rd best with 7 rushing TDs. He’s a guy that we’ve seen rip off several big runs this year already. Jones is also a pass catching threat too, he’s got 126 yards and 1 TD this season through the air. Jones is a guy we’ll probably see fielding some kick returns too, he’s got a solid average of 21 yards per return.
#6 Ty McCullouch, WR – A 6-1, 180 pound WR transfer from Colorado State. You will see him catch passes and run the ball (most likely). He’s got a team high 28 catches and has 374 receiving yards, as well as 4 receiving TDs. On the ground he’s got 152 rushing yards and 1 TD. He’s even 1-1 passing for a TD there!
#14 Taco Dowler, WR – “MSU’s Junior Bergen”. Dowler is a threat all over the field. He’s a damned dangerous punt returner, nearly 13.5 yards per return and he housed a punt for a touchdown against Davis. Dowler is 3rd on the team with 330 receiving, and has the 2nd most receiving TDs with 6.
#32 Julius Davis, RB – If healthy (which he presumably is) Davis could be the Cats secret weapon in this game. A 3rd option / rotation at running back that finally saw his first extensive amount of play against Davis. He’s another physical runner, having played in just 3 games this season he’s averaging close to 90 yards per game and has 3 TDs already. If Humphrey is still dinged up then Davis can help lighten that load.
#41 Brody Grebe, DE – The preseason defensive MVP, he leads the team in sacks with 6 and is tied for tops with 7.5 TFLs. He has a team best 6 QB hits and actually leads the team in pass breakups too (presumably hitting passes at the line). He’s a 6-3, 250 pound end and plays with his hair on fire all the time.
#42 McCade O’Reilly, LB - A local Bozeman kid, the 6 foot tall, 220 backer leads the team in tackles with 54, he’s also got 7.5 TFLs and has 3 sacks this season. He’s forced 1 fumble and also has 6 QB hits – watch for him to blitz a lot!
#26 Rylan Ortt, S – Yet another Sentinel kid, we’ve seen Ortt for a few years now, I think he had a pick against Montana in 2022 and you can imagine the reaction that got from cat players, and cat fans – especially Ty Gregorak haha. Ortt is right behind O’Reilly with 52 total tackles, he’s got 3 TFLs, he has 1 interception, 1 forced / recovered fumble, and he’s even blocked a kick this season.
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