And now things get real. In a late night game, on ESPN 2, the Grizzlies host UC Davis in a top-10 battle. Montana has slipped up a few times this year, while UCD has only suffered a loss to Cal this season. A Griz win turns the tables on playoff seeding, possible conference champions, and will elevate them into the top 5. A UC Davis win sets them up to essentially play for the conference title against MSU the next week and will build their resume to be a top 4 seed team.
UCD’s coach, Tim Plough, is in his first year, and he’s having quite the start! He’s awfully familiar with the Big Sky, he played for Davis, served as an assistant coach twice – with some time @ NAU inbetween, he was Boise State’s OC, and TE’s coach for Cal.
Davis’s success could be contributed to returning experience, they returned 11 starters on offense from last year and 8 starters on defense. Maybe two of the biggest returning pieces are preseason MVP, running back Lan Larison and QB Miles Hastings. Larison leads the conference in APY, he’s 4th best in rushing yards and 6th best in receiving yards. Last year the Grizzlies avoided seeing Larison as he suffered an injury the week before. This year, we’ll see him. Hastings leads the conference by a wide margin in passing yards per game – with 311 ypg, and his 23 passing TDs are best in the conference as well.
Pulling national stats, here’s some notable UCD stats:
13-31 loss to Cal: Davis actually out-gained Cal 304 to 281 in the game, however they tossed 3 picks, had 3 turnovers on downs, and missed a field goal. All while giving up a kick return TD and allowing 10 more points off turnovers / missed kicks. Hastings has 6 INTs all year and 3 of them came in this game.
36-22 win vs Texas A&M Commerce: I watched some of this game, it was an odd start… 0-0 in the first and 9-0 UCD at the half. Davis’s offense kept stalling out an having to opt for field goals, while A&M couldn’t do much at all. Davis was up 22-0 and 29-7 but then A&M found some late life. They score on a 61 yard TD pass with 7:30 left in the game, force a 3 and out, and score again quickly after. Now it’s 29-22 Davis with still 5:00 to go. Davis again stalls out, they get 1 first down, but then have to punt. A&M with 1:54 left goes from their 24, and crosses mid-field, but then disaster happens… a pick 6, and it’s game over. In the game A&M passed for a whopping 457 yards, they essentially didn’t run, they had -9 rushing. Davis passed for 320 and ran for 130. A&M’s slow start and 2 picks, especially the pick 6 did them in. A&M is 1-8 on the season so far.
24-21 win @ Southern Utah: SUU started strong – keeping Davis out of the endzone and holding a 14-6 lead at the half. However the 3rd quarter was all Davis, 18 unanswered points (2 TDs + a 2 point + field goal). SUU in the 3rd had 4 three and outs. But, just like the week before, later in the game Davis’s offense goes cold, on 3 possessions (one was a kneel down / game ender) they have just 30 yards and 2 first downs. SUU found some renewed life in the 4th. Unfortunately on one possession they’d miss a chipshot kick from the Davis 6. Next possession they would score a TD with 5:13 left in the game to set the score to 24-21. Stopping Davis and with the ball back SUU gets to the Davis side of the field… but would toss a pick and end the game. Both teams had about 350 yards of offense, most of Davis’s through the air, most of SUU’s on the ground. SUU’s first TD was a pick-6.
32-14 win @ Utah Tech: I had this game on, in addition to others, it was super dull. Utah Tech couldn’t do much and Davis kind of seemed to just be going through the motions on it. Davis passed for 285, ran for 135 and had the score up to 25-0 before UTT found the endzone. Davis would kick 4 field goals as their offense kept stalling out in the red zone.
28-26 win vs Idaho: This was a heck of a game. Idaho jumps out on top of Davis 14-0, Davis answers to tie the game up 14-14, Idaho kicks a field goal and at the half it’s 17-14. Davis in the 3rd scores twice to go up 28-17 and during this process one of Idaho’s many QBs gets knocked out of the game. With their 15th string backup Idaho finds late life, making a field goal to get it to 28-20, and then scoring a TD with 44 seconds left… but failing on the 2 point try to tie it up. Idaho shot themselves in the foot in this game, with 4 consecutive drives ending in essential turnovers, 3 INTs and 1 on downs. Idaho outgained Davis 460 to 312. Davis really didn’t attempt to rush much, while Idaho had 185 on the ground and 275 in the air. Davis was lousy on 3rd down (4 of 13) but unlike previous games, when they got in the RZ – they came away with TDs instead of field goals.
27-26 win @ Portland State: A controversial finish! Davis scored on the last play of the game and the Big Sky did not have good cameras to review if the ball actually crossed the plane. In the game Davis had to drive the field, starting at their own 6 with just 1:50 left. Davis with 20 seconds left has a player tackled short of gain with no timeouts, but, Portland picks up a roughing call, stopping the clock at 5 seconds. On the next play a pass gets thrown out of the endzone and the clock hits 0:00 but the refs get together and give Davis 1 more second. On the next play Hastings finds a WR on the goal line, but one video highlight seems to suggest the WR’s feet were in the endzone but the ball was caught around the 1 and then he was shoved out. The refs call TD… go to review, have no good angles, call stands, game over. Davis did earlier block a PSU extra point and in the end, that turned out to be the difference. Davis’s offense came alive in this one, 398 passing, a total of 548 yards of offense, but they had 3 promising drives end in a turnover on downs, a lost fumble, and then one that would wind up in a punt.
56-10 win vs Cal Poly: We just saw Poly, we know they’re not good. Davis runs for 170 and passes for 500 yards for a total of 671 yards of offense in the game. Poly has just 270 yards. Davis was up 42-10 at the half, they even had a pick 6 in the game.
48-38 win @ Eastern Washington: As expected Davis’s dangerous offense had their way with the porous EWU defense, 220 rushing, 330 passing. Interestingly their first 4 drives were all short drives that ended in punts, but after that they got cooking, scoring 31 points on their next 5 possessions. Of those 5 possessions, the longest drive was 2:54, three of the drives took just about 1 minute, if not less than 1 minute of clock. Davis held EWU at an arm’s length the whole way, it was a closer score but never seemed like a close game. EWU would pass for 320 but didn’t find much ground game, they had some good kick returns as the game went on.
59-7 win vs Northern Colorado: 309 rushing, 313 passing and a 28 point 3rd quarter, yeah UCD was rolling. Davis had 9 different guys run the ball and 10 different guys catch passes. Larison appeared to play a little half the game so he’ll be well rested, he had a highlight reel hurdle TD in the game.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game UCD (234 for GRIZ vs 324 for UCD)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (223 for GRIZ vs 146 for UCD)
Total offense UCD (457 for GRIZ vs 470 for UCD)
Passing yards allowed per game GRIZ (217 for GRIZ vs 232 for UCD)
Rushing yards allowed per game UCD (131 for GRIZ vs 123 for UCD)
Total defense GRIZ (348 for GRIZ vs 355 for UCD)
Wow, some close stats here! It’s essentially a push, Griz get 3, Davis gets 3. Worth pointing out the only one real lopsided advantage is Davis’s passing numbers on offense.
Offense points scored GRIZ (39.4 for GRIZ vs 35.9 for UCD)
Defense points allowed UCD (24.3 for GRIZ vs 21.7 for UCD)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+5 for GRIZ / +4 for UCD)
Field goal % UCD (69% for GRIZ vs 87% for UCD)
Punt Returns GRIZ (15.8 yards for GRIZ vs 4.5 yards for UCD)
Kick Returns GRIZ (23.5 yards for GRIZ vs 22 yards for UCD)
T.O.P. GRIZ (31:20 for GRIZ vs 30:12 for UCD)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (55.5% GRIZ / 60% UCD)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (73% GRIZ / 57% UCD)
3rd down offense GRIZ – (47.5% for GRIZ / 46.5% for UCD)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (36.2% allowed for GRIZ vs 37.6% allowed for UCD)
Guys… I’m honestly shocked. I thought Davis would pull ahead here in numbers, but they aren’t. The Griz pick up 9 while Davis gets just 2. It’s worth observing again that many of these categories are quite close and even some where Montana has an advantage it’s a slim margin such as TOP, turnover margin, RZ defense, and 3rd downs. However, if we stack it up that puts Montana at 12 and UCD at 5.
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UC Davis Players to Watch:
#3 Lan Larison, RB – As earlier mentioned, I think Lan is one of the three best individual players in the Big Sky. I think he’s a Payton finalist too. The Griz didn’t see him last year, they will on Saturday. He leads the team in rushing yards with 964 and 10 TDs, he leads the team in receiving yards with 529 yards and 5 TDs. This guy is a threat all over the field. He’s listed at 6 feet tall, 215 pounds. If you’ve seen highlights on him he’s a smooth route runner, can make contested catches, can hurdle guys, and runs very powerfully when needed as well. Lan will also take some direct snaps and while he usually runs the ball he is 4-6 passing, but he doesn’t have any passing TDs, but does have 1 INT.
#7 Miles Hastings, QB – Hastings is the only QB in the Big Sky averaging more than 300 passing ypg, on the season he’s got 2800 passing yards, 23 TDs, and just 6 INTs (however he’s only thrown 1 INT in his last 6 games). He’s a pocket QB for the most part, has 1 rushing TD but has a net negative yards at -69 (nice). Hastings is a senior, this is his 3rd year starting for Davis, he’s on track to go over 10,000 career passing yards in the next game or two.
#1 CJ Hutton, WR – Hutton is their jack of all trades guy, he’s listed at 5-8, 180. He’s 2nd on the team in receptions with 35 and has the 3rd most receiving yards with 438 and 1 TD there. He’s their primary kick returner and has a healthy 23 yards per return average. He’s even run the ball a bit, last week he had a 40 yard TD run.
#8 Samuel Gbatu Jr, WR – Gbatu is 2nd in receiving yards with 497, he’s tied with Larison for a team high 5 TD receptions. Based on his stats he’s their bigger play guy, he has the highest average yards per reception, over 17 yards. He’s also returned one kick this year as well.
#4 Chaz Davis, WR – Davis has really been stepping up as the season’s been going along. He’s their taller WR at 6-3 and seems to be a jump ball threat. He also is tied atop the receivers for the most receiving TDs with 5. He has 361 receiving yards this season.
#4 Rex Connors, DB – Connors is a 1st team all conference unanimous selection and even though he’s missed 3 games in the middle of the season, he’s still 2nd best on the team in tackles with 57. He’s got 1 INT & 2.5 TFLs. He plays that slot DB position that is usually a stat monster and all around the ball on most plays.
#9 David Meyer, LB – A physical and tough 6-1, 230 pound linebacker he’s leading the team in tackles with 78, he’s got 5.5 TFLs and 0.5 sacks. Oh yeah, he’s also got a team best 3 interceptions!
#95 Zach Kennedy, DL – Davis’s D-line is huge, Kennedy at 6-6, 275 is actually on the lighter side compared to others. He’s got 4 TFLs and a team high 2 sacks. He was selected first team all conference in the Big Sky preseason team.
#23 Kavir Bains, DB – Bains holds top marks on the team in pass breakups (8) and TFLs (6.5). He’s got 49 tackles, 2 INTs, he’s forced and recovered a fumble, he’s even blocked a kick.
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UCD’s coach, Tim Plough, is in his first year, and he’s having quite the start! He’s awfully familiar with the Big Sky, he played for Davis, served as an assistant coach twice – with some time @ NAU inbetween, he was Boise State’s OC, and TE’s coach for Cal.
Davis’s success could be contributed to returning experience, they returned 11 starters on offense from last year and 8 starters on defense. Maybe two of the biggest returning pieces are preseason MVP, running back Lan Larison and QB Miles Hastings. Larison leads the conference in APY, he’s 4th best in rushing yards and 6th best in receiving yards. Last year the Grizzlies avoided seeing Larison as he suffered an injury the week before. This year, we’ll see him. Hastings leads the conference by a wide margin in passing yards per game – with 311 ypg, and his 23 passing TDs are best in the conference as well.
Pulling national stats, here’s some notable UCD stats:
- 2nd best passing offense (1st is Western Carolina)
- Lan Larison has the 2nd best all purpose yards/game, 10th best rushing,
- Miles Hastings has the 11th best pass efficiency, 4th best pass ypg, 3rd best passing TDs (interesting stat – best passing TDs in the FCS is Sam Vidlak)
- 5th best total offense (MSU is 1st, WCU is 4th, UM is 8th)
13-31 loss to Cal: Davis actually out-gained Cal 304 to 281 in the game, however they tossed 3 picks, had 3 turnovers on downs, and missed a field goal. All while giving up a kick return TD and allowing 10 more points off turnovers / missed kicks. Hastings has 6 INTs all year and 3 of them came in this game.
36-22 win vs Texas A&M Commerce: I watched some of this game, it was an odd start… 0-0 in the first and 9-0 UCD at the half. Davis’s offense kept stalling out an having to opt for field goals, while A&M couldn’t do much at all. Davis was up 22-0 and 29-7 but then A&M found some late life. They score on a 61 yard TD pass with 7:30 left in the game, force a 3 and out, and score again quickly after. Now it’s 29-22 Davis with still 5:00 to go. Davis again stalls out, they get 1 first down, but then have to punt. A&M with 1:54 left goes from their 24, and crosses mid-field, but then disaster happens… a pick 6, and it’s game over. In the game A&M passed for a whopping 457 yards, they essentially didn’t run, they had -9 rushing. Davis passed for 320 and ran for 130. A&M’s slow start and 2 picks, especially the pick 6 did them in. A&M is 1-8 on the season so far.
24-21 win @ Southern Utah: SUU started strong – keeping Davis out of the endzone and holding a 14-6 lead at the half. However the 3rd quarter was all Davis, 18 unanswered points (2 TDs + a 2 point + field goal). SUU in the 3rd had 4 three and outs. But, just like the week before, later in the game Davis’s offense goes cold, on 3 possessions (one was a kneel down / game ender) they have just 30 yards and 2 first downs. SUU found some renewed life in the 4th. Unfortunately on one possession they’d miss a chipshot kick from the Davis 6. Next possession they would score a TD with 5:13 left in the game to set the score to 24-21. Stopping Davis and with the ball back SUU gets to the Davis side of the field… but would toss a pick and end the game. Both teams had about 350 yards of offense, most of Davis’s through the air, most of SUU’s on the ground. SUU’s first TD was a pick-6.
32-14 win @ Utah Tech: I had this game on, in addition to others, it was super dull. Utah Tech couldn’t do much and Davis kind of seemed to just be going through the motions on it. Davis passed for 285, ran for 135 and had the score up to 25-0 before UTT found the endzone. Davis would kick 4 field goals as their offense kept stalling out in the red zone.
28-26 win vs Idaho: This was a heck of a game. Idaho jumps out on top of Davis 14-0, Davis answers to tie the game up 14-14, Idaho kicks a field goal and at the half it’s 17-14. Davis in the 3rd scores twice to go up 28-17 and during this process one of Idaho’s many QBs gets knocked out of the game. With their 15th string backup Idaho finds late life, making a field goal to get it to 28-20, and then scoring a TD with 44 seconds left… but failing on the 2 point try to tie it up. Idaho shot themselves in the foot in this game, with 4 consecutive drives ending in essential turnovers, 3 INTs and 1 on downs. Idaho outgained Davis 460 to 312. Davis really didn’t attempt to rush much, while Idaho had 185 on the ground and 275 in the air. Davis was lousy on 3rd down (4 of 13) but unlike previous games, when they got in the RZ – they came away with TDs instead of field goals.
27-26 win @ Portland State: A controversial finish! Davis scored on the last play of the game and the Big Sky did not have good cameras to review if the ball actually crossed the plane. In the game Davis had to drive the field, starting at their own 6 with just 1:50 left. Davis with 20 seconds left has a player tackled short of gain with no timeouts, but, Portland picks up a roughing call, stopping the clock at 5 seconds. On the next play a pass gets thrown out of the endzone and the clock hits 0:00 but the refs get together and give Davis 1 more second. On the next play Hastings finds a WR on the goal line, but one video highlight seems to suggest the WR’s feet were in the endzone but the ball was caught around the 1 and then he was shoved out. The refs call TD… go to review, have no good angles, call stands, game over. Davis did earlier block a PSU extra point and in the end, that turned out to be the difference. Davis’s offense came alive in this one, 398 passing, a total of 548 yards of offense, but they had 3 promising drives end in a turnover on downs, a lost fumble, and then one that would wind up in a punt.
56-10 win vs Cal Poly: We just saw Poly, we know they’re not good. Davis runs for 170 and passes for 500 yards for a total of 671 yards of offense in the game. Poly has just 270 yards. Davis was up 42-10 at the half, they even had a pick 6 in the game.
48-38 win @ Eastern Washington: As expected Davis’s dangerous offense had their way with the porous EWU defense, 220 rushing, 330 passing. Interestingly their first 4 drives were all short drives that ended in punts, but after that they got cooking, scoring 31 points on their next 5 possessions. Of those 5 possessions, the longest drive was 2:54, three of the drives took just about 1 minute, if not less than 1 minute of clock. Davis held EWU at an arm’s length the whole way, it was a closer score but never seemed like a close game. EWU would pass for 320 but didn’t find much ground game, they had some good kick returns as the game went on.
59-7 win vs Northern Colorado: 309 rushing, 313 passing and a 28 point 3rd quarter, yeah UCD was rolling. Davis had 9 different guys run the ball and 10 different guys catch passes. Larison appeared to play a little half the game so he’ll be well rested, he had a highlight reel hurdle TD in the game.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game UCD (234 for GRIZ vs 324 for UCD)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (223 for GRIZ vs 146 for UCD)
Total offense UCD (457 for GRIZ vs 470 for UCD)
Passing yards allowed per game GRIZ (217 for GRIZ vs 232 for UCD)
Rushing yards allowed per game UCD (131 for GRIZ vs 123 for UCD)
Total defense GRIZ (348 for GRIZ vs 355 for UCD)
Wow, some close stats here! It’s essentially a push, Griz get 3, Davis gets 3. Worth pointing out the only one real lopsided advantage is Davis’s passing numbers on offense.
Offense points scored GRIZ (39.4 for GRIZ vs 35.9 for UCD)
Defense points allowed UCD (24.3 for GRIZ vs 21.7 for UCD)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+5 for GRIZ / +4 for UCD)
Field goal % UCD (69% for GRIZ vs 87% for UCD)
Punt Returns GRIZ (15.8 yards for GRIZ vs 4.5 yards for UCD)
Kick Returns GRIZ (23.5 yards for GRIZ vs 22 yards for UCD)
T.O.P. GRIZ (31:20 for GRIZ vs 30:12 for UCD)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (55.5% GRIZ / 60% UCD)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (73% GRIZ / 57% UCD)
3rd down offense GRIZ – (47.5% for GRIZ / 46.5% for UCD)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (36.2% allowed for GRIZ vs 37.6% allowed for UCD)
Guys… I’m honestly shocked. I thought Davis would pull ahead here in numbers, but they aren’t. The Griz pick up 9 while Davis gets just 2. It’s worth observing again that many of these categories are quite close and even some where Montana has an advantage it’s a slim margin such as TOP, turnover margin, RZ defense, and 3rd downs. However, if we stack it up that puts Montana at 12 and UCD at 5.
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UC Davis Players to Watch:
#3 Lan Larison, RB – As earlier mentioned, I think Lan is one of the three best individual players in the Big Sky. I think he’s a Payton finalist too. The Griz didn’t see him last year, they will on Saturday. He leads the team in rushing yards with 964 and 10 TDs, he leads the team in receiving yards with 529 yards and 5 TDs. This guy is a threat all over the field. He’s listed at 6 feet tall, 215 pounds. If you’ve seen highlights on him he’s a smooth route runner, can make contested catches, can hurdle guys, and runs very powerfully when needed as well. Lan will also take some direct snaps and while he usually runs the ball he is 4-6 passing, but he doesn’t have any passing TDs, but does have 1 INT.
#7 Miles Hastings, QB – Hastings is the only QB in the Big Sky averaging more than 300 passing ypg, on the season he’s got 2800 passing yards, 23 TDs, and just 6 INTs (however he’s only thrown 1 INT in his last 6 games). He’s a pocket QB for the most part, has 1 rushing TD but has a net negative yards at -69 (nice). Hastings is a senior, this is his 3rd year starting for Davis, he’s on track to go over 10,000 career passing yards in the next game or two.
#1 CJ Hutton, WR – Hutton is their jack of all trades guy, he’s listed at 5-8, 180. He’s 2nd on the team in receptions with 35 and has the 3rd most receiving yards with 438 and 1 TD there. He’s their primary kick returner and has a healthy 23 yards per return average. He’s even run the ball a bit, last week he had a 40 yard TD run.
#8 Samuel Gbatu Jr, WR – Gbatu is 2nd in receiving yards with 497, he’s tied with Larison for a team high 5 TD receptions. Based on his stats he’s their bigger play guy, he has the highest average yards per reception, over 17 yards. He’s also returned one kick this year as well.
#4 Chaz Davis, WR – Davis has really been stepping up as the season’s been going along. He’s their taller WR at 6-3 and seems to be a jump ball threat. He also is tied atop the receivers for the most receiving TDs with 5. He has 361 receiving yards this season.
#4 Rex Connors, DB – Connors is a 1st team all conference unanimous selection and even though he’s missed 3 games in the middle of the season, he’s still 2nd best on the team in tackles with 57. He’s got 1 INT & 2.5 TFLs. He plays that slot DB position that is usually a stat monster and all around the ball on most plays.
#9 David Meyer, LB – A physical and tough 6-1, 230 pound linebacker he’s leading the team in tackles with 78, he’s got 5.5 TFLs and 0.5 sacks. Oh yeah, he’s also got a team best 3 interceptions!
#95 Zach Kennedy, DL – Davis’s D-line is huge, Kennedy at 6-6, 275 is actually on the lighter side compared to others. He’s got 4 TFLs and a team high 2 sacks. He was selected first team all conference in the Big Sky preseason team.
#23 Kavir Bains, DB – Bains holds top marks on the team in pass breakups (8) and TFLs (6.5). He’s got 49 tackles, 2 INTs, he’s forced and recovered a fumble, he’s even blocked a kick.
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