The Grizzlies are in major need of finding some mojo after a gut punch OT loss to Weber. Coming to town now are the NAU Lumberjacks, who had a nice ranked win against Sac State two weeks ago, but then dropped a close one to Idaho this last weekend. There’s some rumor of NAU’s QB getting hurt in their last game but with the recent performance of the Grizzly defense I don’t know how much that’s going to matter.
NAU has a new head coach this season, Brian Wright. Wright was a very successful coach at D2 Pittsburg State, he also carries experience coaching at Youngstown State, Bozeman State, and Toledo as well. NAU’s media guide doesn’t really say how many guys they graduated vs how many starters are returning. Last year they had 15 seniors, and I’d venture a few off-season departures with the coaching change. Looking back at last year’s NAU vs UM game that we all keenly remember, I don’t believe their QB, RB, and two of their top WRs from tat game are on their roster now.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
66-6 win vs Lincoln (CA) – NAU had 450 yards of total offense, took a punt to the house (which I assume was partially blocked – it’s logged as a 15 yard punt return), and enjoyed short field all day. Lincoln, a D2 school, only averaged 31 yards/punt and had just 168 total yards.
10-22 loss @ Arizona – It was 10-6 NAU at the half, Arizona could not get much going, short drives, a lost pick, and then two drives that had to end in field goals. In the 2nd half Arizona got things going a little better, scoring a TD in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. NAU’s offense in the 2nd half went stone cold. Turnover on downs, 3 and out, 7 plays and punt, given up safety, turnover on downs, lost fumble. Arizona was pretty balanced, 190 rushing, 175 passing. Meanwhile NAU didn’t even get over 200 total yards of offense.
45-17 win @ Utah Tech – NAU used some big plays to rip the game wide open. Scoring plays of 31, 55, and 68 yards. NAU ran for 340 yards and passed for220 more in the blowout win.
14-38 loss @ Incarnate Word – Then (and seemingly still) #15 UIW held a narrow 17-14 lead at the half. NAU found paydirt on two big plays, runs of 47 and 35. However in the 2nd half the Lumberjacks had just 4 total possessions, 3 of which ended in a turnover on downs – two on the UIW 3, another on their 28, and their 4th/final possession ended with a lost fumble on the UIW 12. Ouch. UIW meanwhile really ripped the doors off the game with a 97 yard TD run. NAU barely outgained UIW 439 to 412, but obviously 4 red zone drives that effectively end in turnovers ain’t gonna win it.
34-16 win vs Sacramento State – Then #10 Sac ran into a bit of a buzzsaw as NAU played just their 2nd home game of the year. It was 10-9 NAU at the half, and in the 3rd quarter NAU would go on to score a field goal, then a scoop and score TD, and then would pick a Sac pass and score a TD shortly after that as well, moving the score to 27-9 before even 8:00 of clock ran off in the 3rd quarter. Sac lost 3 turnovers, had just 231 total yards of offense, and gave up 275 passing to NAU in the game.
17-23 loss @ Idaho – Save a 7-6 lead early Idaho generally was able to hold the lead and not give NAU too much of a chance to roar back. It was 20-10 Idaho at the half, and then 23-10 midway through the 3rd. NAU had two 3rd quarter picks. They also grabbed an Idaho fumble early in the 4th on Idaho’s 5… but would turn it over on downs. Credit NAU though, they kept fighting. They would score a TD with 4:11 left, hold Idaho to a 3 and out, and get the ball back with 2:31 to go. NAU would get to midfield, but no further – Idaho then kneels the ball out for the win. NAU had 314 total yards, Idaho had 313. Idaho would run for about 200, NAU would pass for about 200. I do see NAU’s QB Pennington was listed as leaving the game in the late 2nd quarter and wouldn’t return.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (238 for GRIZ vs 215 for NAU)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (266 for GRIZ vs 172 for NAU)
Total offense GRIZ (504 for GRIZ vs 387 for NAU)
Passing yards allowed per game NAU (240 for GRIZ vs 152 for NAU)
Rushing yards allowed per game NAU (145 for GRIZ vs 144 for NAU)
Total defense NAU (385 for GRIZ vs 296 for NAU)
Griz get all 3 categories on offense, NAU gets all 3 categories on defense.
Offense points scored GRIZ (43 for GRIZ vs 31 for NAU)
Defense points allowed NAU (32 for GRIZ vs 20.3 for NAU)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+/- 0 for GRIZ / -2 for NAU)
Field goal % NAU (69% for GRIZ vs 71% for NAU)
Punt Returns NAU (8.5 yards for GRIZ vs 14.4 yards for NAU)
Kick Returns GRIZ (23 yards for GRIZ vs 21.3 yards for NAU)
T.O.P. GRIZ (30:26 for GRIZ vs 29:28 for NAU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (67% GRIZ / 69% NAU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (70% GRIZ / 61% NAU)
3rd down offense NAU – (43% for GRIZ / 47% for NAU)
3rd down defense NAU – (41% allowed for GRIZ vs 27% allowed for NAU)
The Grizzlies pick up 6, NAU picks up 5. That puts this awfully close, Griz 9, NAU 8
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NAU Players to Watch:
#12 Bryazi White, TE – A damn good pass catching TE, he leads the team in receptions, yards (273) and is tied for the most receiving TDs with 3. He’s 6-3, 245 pounds and has been on a tear the last 3 weeks.
#1 Ta’ir Brooks, WR – An NMSU transfer, a 6-2, 200 pound WR. He’s also got 3 receiving TDs this year to go with 188 receiving yards. He was the leading WR against Montana last year.
#23 Darvon Hubbard, RB – NAU has a group of backs they’ll use. Hubbard has the most carries, and yards with 299. He leads the team with 3 rushing TDs.
#6 Ty Pennington, QB – We don’t know his status but I think the Griz should prepare for his style of play. He’s a legit dual threat, has 200 rushing to go with 957 passing. He has no picks this year. NAU’s used a few other QBs but it seems right now his backup is #15 PJ London who does have 3 picks this season.
#7 Alex McLaughlin, DB – A first team all conf safety, he’s 6-2, 200 pounds and leads the team with 39 tackles, he’s also got 3.5 sacks / TFLs and 1 forced fumble.
#46 Tommy Ellis, LB – Another 1st team all conference guy, he’s 3rd on the team in tackles with 36, he has 3 TFLs, 1 sack, and 1 pick
#22 Ammon Allen, LB – Allen has 38 tackles 4.5 TFLs, and 2 sacks. He’s got a few pass breakups as well.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
I spent most of Saturday evening and Sunday mid-day telling myself NAU is going to win this game, and I still kind of think they can and will – even with a 2nd or 3rd string QB. This is a defense the Griz have not seen, and as you saw in Bobby’s highly in-depth press conference NAU has good corners (hence a good defense?).
I can’t bring myself to that though. If the Griz keep it simple, like my keys posted above, I think they can take the day and head into the bye week with some returned momentum. I just can’t imagine the win won’t be stressful, and while I can’t recall what I said on the pod for a score I’ll say Montana barely escapes with a win on homecoming, 41-38.
Go Griz!
NAU has a new head coach this season, Brian Wright. Wright was a very successful coach at D2 Pittsburg State, he also carries experience coaching at Youngstown State, Bozeman State, and Toledo as well. NAU’s media guide doesn’t really say how many guys they graduated vs how many starters are returning. Last year they had 15 seniors, and I’d venture a few off-season departures with the coaching change. Looking back at last year’s NAU vs UM game that we all keenly remember, I don’t believe their QB, RB, and two of their top WRs from tat game are on their roster now.
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
66-6 win vs Lincoln (CA) – NAU had 450 yards of total offense, took a punt to the house (which I assume was partially blocked – it’s logged as a 15 yard punt return), and enjoyed short field all day. Lincoln, a D2 school, only averaged 31 yards/punt and had just 168 total yards.
10-22 loss @ Arizona – It was 10-6 NAU at the half, Arizona could not get much going, short drives, a lost pick, and then two drives that had to end in field goals. In the 2nd half Arizona got things going a little better, scoring a TD in both the 3rd and 4th quarters. NAU’s offense in the 2nd half went stone cold. Turnover on downs, 3 and out, 7 plays and punt, given up safety, turnover on downs, lost fumble. Arizona was pretty balanced, 190 rushing, 175 passing. Meanwhile NAU didn’t even get over 200 total yards of offense.
45-17 win @ Utah Tech – NAU used some big plays to rip the game wide open. Scoring plays of 31, 55, and 68 yards. NAU ran for 340 yards and passed for220 more in the blowout win.
14-38 loss @ Incarnate Word – Then (and seemingly still) #15 UIW held a narrow 17-14 lead at the half. NAU found paydirt on two big plays, runs of 47 and 35. However in the 2nd half the Lumberjacks had just 4 total possessions, 3 of which ended in a turnover on downs – two on the UIW 3, another on their 28, and their 4th/final possession ended with a lost fumble on the UIW 12. Ouch. UIW meanwhile really ripped the doors off the game with a 97 yard TD run. NAU barely outgained UIW 439 to 412, but obviously 4 red zone drives that effectively end in turnovers ain’t gonna win it.
34-16 win vs Sacramento State – Then #10 Sac ran into a bit of a buzzsaw as NAU played just their 2nd home game of the year. It was 10-9 NAU at the half, and in the 3rd quarter NAU would go on to score a field goal, then a scoop and score TD, and then would pick a Sac pass and score a TD shortly after that as well, moving the score to 27-9 before even 8:00 of clock ran off in the 3rd quarter. Sac lost 3 turnovers, had just 231 total yards of offense, and gave up 275 passing to NAU in the game.
17-23 loss @ Idaho – Save a 7-6 lead early Idaho generally was able to hold the lead and not give NAU too much of a chance to roar back. It was 20-10 Idaho at the half, and then 23-10 midway through the 3rd. NAU had two 3rd quarter picks. They also grabbed an Idaho fumble early in the 4th on Idaho’s 5… but would turn it over on downs. Credit NAU though, they kept fighting. They would score a TD with 4:11 left, hold Idaho to a 3 and out, and get the ball back with 2:31 to go. NAU would get to midfield, but no further – Idaho then kneels the ball out for the win. NAU had 314 total yards, Idaho had 313. Idaho would run for about 200, NAU would pass for about 200. I do see NAU’s QB Pennington was listed as leaving the game in the late 2nd quarter and wouldn’t return.
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General Stats
Passing yards per game GRIZ (238 for GRIZ vs 215 for NAU)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (266 for GRIZ vs 172 for NAU)
Total offense GRIZ (504 for GRIZ vs 387 for NAU)
Passing yards allowed per game NAU (240 for GRIZ vs 152 for NAU)
Rushing yards allowed per game NAU (145 for GRIZ vs 144 for NAU)
Total defense NAU (385 for GRIZ vs 296 for NAU)
Griz get all 3 categories on offense, NAU gets all 3 categories on defense.
Offense points scored GRIZ (43 for GRIZ vs 31 for NAU)
Defense points allowed NAU (32 for GRIZ vs 20.3 for NAU)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+/- 0 for GRIZ / -2 for NAU)
Field goal % NAU (69% for GRIZ vs 71% for NAU)
Punt Returns NAU (8.5 yards for GRIZ vs 14.4 yards for NAU)
Kick Returns GRIZ (23 yards for GRIZ vs 21.3 yards for NAU)
T.O.P. GRIZ (30:26 for GRIZ vs 29:28 for NAU)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (67% GRIZ / 69% NAU)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) GRIZ (70% GRIZ / 61% NAU)
3rd down offense NAU – (43% for GRIZ / 47% for NAU)
3rd down defense NAU – (41% allowed for GRIZ vs 27% allowed for NAU)
The Grizzlies pick up 6, NAU picks up 5. That puts this awfully close, Griz 9, NAU 8
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NAU Players to Watch:
#12 Bryazi White, TE – A damn good pass catching TE, he leads the team in receptions, yards (273) and is tied for the most receiving TDs with 3. He’s 6-3, 245 pounds and has been on a tear the last 3 weeks.
#1 Ta’ir Brooks, WR – An NMSU transfer, a 6-2, 200 pound WR. He’s also got 3 receiving TDs this year to go with 188 receiving yards. He was the leading WR against Montana last year.
#23 Darvon Hubbard, RB – NAU has a group of backs they’ll use. Hubbard has the most carries, and yards with 299. He leads the team with 3 rushing TDs.
#6 Ty Pennington, QB – We don’t know his status but I think the Griz should prepare for his style of play. He’s a legit dual threat, has 200 rushing to go with 957 passing. He has no picks this year. NAU’s used a few other QBs but it seems right now his backup is #15 PJ London who does have 3 picks this season.
#7 Alex McLaughlin, DB – A first team all conf safety, he’s 6-2, 200 pounds and leads the team with 39 tackles, he’s also got 3.5 sacks / TFLs and 1 forced fumble.
#46 Tommy Ellis, LB – Another 1st team all conference guy, he’s 3rd on the team in tackles with 36, he has 3 TFLs, 1 sack, and 1 pick
#22 Ammon Allen, LB – Allen has 38 tackles 4.5 TFLs, and 2 sacks. He’s got a few pass breakups as well.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
- 40+ points. Yes I know NAU hasn’t allowed 40 points this season yet but I think my reasoning here is pretty self-explanatory.
- Simplify the defense to limit big plays. I get I’m probably yelling at clouds here but my hope is that the Montana defense can just find some plan that limits big plays and keeps stuff in front of them. Yes NAU will get their yards, but if the Griz can not just let fast score happen time after time they’ll be doing themselves a favor – especially if the offense keeps rolling.
- Neutral or positive turnover margin. If we do happen to get NAU’s backup QB, he’s prone to some picks, also NAU more than any team the Griz have seen have shown some issues with fumbles.
- If Eli Gillman doesn’t have 20+ touches I’m gonna scream
I spent most of Saturday evening and Sunday mid-day telling myself NAU is going to win this game, and I still kind of think they can and will – even with a 2nd or 3rd string QB. This is a defense the Griz have not seen, and as you saw in Bobby’s highly in-depth press conference NAU has good corners (hence a good defense?).
I can’t bring myself to that though. If the Griz keep it simple, like my keys posted above, I think they can take the day and head into the bye week with some returned momentum. I just can’t imagine the win won’t be stressful, and while I can’t recall what I said on the pod for a score I’ll say Montana barely escapes with a win on homecoming, 41-38.
Go Griz!
