The Griz are hitting the road, after a somewhat stressful and shaky win against the Missouri State Bears, they’re off to face another MVFC team, the UND Fighting Hawks. While MoState was voted to finish 9th in their conference, UND was voted to finish 5th.
Unlike MoSt – UND is replacing a lot of guys on both sides of the ball. 4 of 5 of their OL graduated, the remaining tackle did get an HM vote on the preseason team. They’ve got a new QB starting this year, 3 new starters on the D-line, and it appears 3 of their 4 starters in their defensive secondary. UND is currently 23rd in the nation, and the last time Montana played in Grand Forks, they got smoked, 41-14.
I also saw on the UND team outlook that last year they went 6-1 at home, their only loss came to Sac State in the playoffs.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks 0-1 (I’m going to grab just a few comparison games again from last year)
37-22 win vs Northern Arizona: While the score suggests a somewhat close game, it really wasn’t. NAU scored 14 points in the last 3:30 of the game to take it from a 37-9 lead to the eventual final score. In the game UND passed for 350 yards and ran for 150 and they dominated the TOP with about a 12:00 margin higher than NAU. Two weeks later NAU would go on to beat Montana, 28-14.
42-21 loss @ South Dakota State: SDSU was up 35-7 as the game got into the 4th quarter when UND would finally find a few more scores. SDSU had 266 rushing and held UND to 234 total yards of offense in the game.
49-24 win vs NDSU: This one shocked a lot of the FCS. UND jumped all over the Bison, going up 21-7 in the first quarter. NDSU would battle back and get it to 21-17 but then gave up a last second score heading into the half. Opening the 2nd half UND would score 3 times in a row, widening the lead to 49-17 and putting the game away. UND went to their ground game to get the win, 210 rushing yards on 39 attempts, to just 118 passing yards on 12 attempts. They were actually slightly outgained by NDSU but were able to grab an interception and force a turnover on downs in the 2nd half to help them keep their large lead. UND never punted in the game.
35-42 loss vs Sacramento State: UND took an early playoff exit at the hands of Sac State. Sac was up 21-7, and 28-14 in the first half, but then UND stormed back and tied the game at 28-28 late in the 3rd. Sac would score, UND answered, Sac scores again an retakes the lead. UND with under 5 minutes to go in the game would go 3 and out. They punted the ball away and couldn’t force Sac to punt the ball back, game over. Both teams ran for well over 200 yards and Sac also passed for over 200. UND lost 1 interception but their inability to make a late stop might’ve been what did them in. Both teams really went ball control here – each team had effectively just 9 possessions.
3-21 loss vs Iowa State: This game they played last week. ISU scored less than 1 minute into the game and I’m sure their team and fans were thinking this would be an easy go of it. From there though UND’s defense would tighten up and their offense held onto the ball FOREVER. Both teams had just 2 possessions per quarter (8 total). UND’s lone scoring drive was 23 plays, 88 yards, and took about 12:30 of game clock – it ended in a made field goal. ISU had success passing, nearly 265 in the air, while UND had success running, with just about 175 on the ground. Thanks especially to that one long drive UND had damn near 38:00 of TOP.
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General Stats (from 2023)
Passing yards per game UND (198 for GRIZ vs 207 for UND)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (177 for GRIZ vs 157 for UND)
Total offense GRIZ (376 for GRIZ vs 364 for UND)
Passing yards allowed per game GRIZ (206 for GRIZ vs 254 for UND)
Rushing yards allowed per game GRIZ (109 for GRIZ vs 155 for UND)
Total defense GRIZ (315 for GRIZ vs 409 for UND)
UND get the Griz on passing offense, but as you can see both are super close in stats offensively. Meanwhile Montana clears on defense and winds up getting 5 while UND gets 2
Offense points scored UND (30.3 for GRIZ vs 31.4 for UND)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (17.2 for GRIZ vs 26.3 for UND)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+9 for GRIZ / +4 for UND)
Field goal % GRIZ (67% for GRIZ vs 57% for UND)
Punt Returns GRIZ (14.5 yards for GRIZ vs 4.5 yards for UND)
Kick Returns UND (23 yards for GRIZ vs 28 yards for UND)
T.O.P. GRIZ (31:23 for GRIZ vs 30:39 for UND)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (58% GRIZ / 72% UND)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) UND (63% GRIZ / 82% UND)
3rd down offense UND – (41.5% for GRIZ / 44.7% for UND)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (29% allowed for GRIZ vs 49% allowed for UND)
UND picks up 4 more here, while Montana adds 7. Final tally comes to Montana 12 / UND 6.
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North Dakota Players to Watch:
#28 Gavin Ziebarth, RB: UND returns both of their dangerous RBs, Zeibarth is an honorable mention all MVFC, last season he had a team best 712 rushing and 9 rushing TDs. Gavin had 39 rushing yards last week.
#29 Isaiah Smith, RB: He’s got a pretty similar build to Zeitbarth, last year he had 603 rushing and 2 rushing TDs. He also had 181 receiving and 1 TD there. Smith had 50 rushing and 34 receiving yards last weeks.
#1 Bo Belquist, WR: Bo is one of the best WR’s Montana will see all season. The 6-1, 185 pound WR landed 1st team all MVFC this season. He finished, by far, the top WR last year with 772 yards and 6 TDS, the next leading WR had just 287 yards. We’ll probably see Bo returning punts too. Against ISU Bo was their leading WR with 6 catches and 43 yards
#6 Simon Romfo, QB: Romfo is UND’s new QB this season, he’s 5-11 / 190 pounds. As a reserve QB he actually played special teams all season last year, and saw some time at QB too. He’s a quick scrambler of a QB. Last week he had a gross gain of 65 rushing (but a net of 44 due to being sacked 3 times). He passed for 121 yards with no TDs and 1 INT, he also lost a fumble. He’ll be a big test to the Grizzly defense with his mobility.
#59 Wyatt Pedigo, LB: The tackling leader last year and 2nd team all MVFC, he’s a 6 foot, 230 pound linebacker. Last year he had 72 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 4 fumble recoveries. 4 tackles last week for Wyatt.
#36 Malachi McNeal, LB: Also 6 foot, 230 pounds. He was 2nd best on the team in stops last year with 68. He had 7 TFLs, 3 sacks, and he blocked a kick even!
#34 Josh Navartil, LB: A taller / bigger backer at 6-2, 235, he was 2nd best in stops last week with 4 and he had 1 TFL. Last season he 33 stops, 4 TFLs, 1 sack, and 2 forced fumbles.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
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I am downright nervous on this game. I want to do that “if this / then that” prediction bc I still don’t feel confident in what’s going to happen. I’m a little shaken from Saturday’s game and I’m worried that a similar defensive performance could show up.
However, this team has good veteran leadership at the right spots. It’s hopefully taking a lot of lessons to heart this week, and our leaders on defense especially can help lead the charge to clean up some of the mess we saw. I think this game will go fast, with lots of run plays, and so I think the team that can run the ball better wins. Montana, I believe, has the better OL – Griz take it, but it ain’t pretty! Final score, Griz will win 21-17.
Go Griz!
Unlike MoSt – UND is replacing a lot of guys on both sides of the ball. 4 of 5 of their OL graduated, the remaining tackle did get an HM vote on the preseason team. They’ve got a new QB starting this year, 3 new starters on the D-line, and it appears 3 of their 4 starters in their defensive secondary. UND is currently 23rd in the nation, and the last time Montana played in Grand Forks, they got smoked, 41-14.
I also saw on the UND team outlook that last year they went 6-1 at home, their only loss came to Sac State in the playoffs.
North Dakota Fighting Hawks 0-1 (I’m going to grab just a few comparison games again from last year)
37-22 win vs Northern Arizona: While the score suggests a somewhat close game, it really wasn’t. NAU scored 14 points in the last 3:30 of the game to take it from a 37-9 lead to the eventual final score. In the game UND passed for 350 yards and ran for 150 and they dominated the TOP with about a 12:00 margin higher than NAU. Two weeks later NAU would go on to beat Montana, 28-14.
42-21 loss @ South Dakota State: SDSU was up 35-7 as the game got into the 4th quarter when UND would finally find a few more scores. SDSU had 266 rushing and held UND to 234 total yards of offense in the game.
49-24 win vs NDSU: This one shocked a lot of the FCS. UND jumped all over the Bison, going up 21-7 in the first quarter. NDSU would battle back and get it to 21-17 but then gave up a last second score heading into the half. Opening the 2nd half UND would score 3 times in a row, widening the lead to 49-17 and putting the game away. UND went to their ground game to get the win, 210 rushing yards on 39 attempts, to just 118 passing yards on 12 attempts. They were actually slightly outgained by NDSU but were able to grab an interception and force a turnover on downs in the 2nd half to help them keep their large lead. UND never punted in the game.
35-42 loss vs Sacramento State: UND took an early playoff exit at the hands of Sac State. Sac was up 21-7, and 28-14 in the first half, but then UND stormed back and tied the game at 28-28 late in the 3rd. Sac would score, UND answered, Sac scores again an retakes the lead. UND with under 5 minutes to go in the game would go 3 and out. They punted the ball away and couldn’t force Sac to punt the ball back, game over. Both teams ran for well over 200 yards and Sac also passed for over 200. UND lost 1 interception but their inability to make a late stop might’ve been what did them in. Both teams really went ball control here – each team had effectively just 9 possessions.
3-21 loss vs Iowa State: This game they played last week. ISU scored less than 1 minute into the game and I’m sure their team and fans were thinking this would be an easy go of it. From there though UND’s defense would tighten up and their offense held onto the ball FOREVER. Both teams had just 2 possessions per quarter (8 total). UND’s lone scoring drive was 23 plays, 88 yards, and took about 12:30 of game clock – it ended in a made field goal. ISU had success passing, nearly 265 in the air, while UND had success running, with just about 175 on the ground. Thanks especially to that one long drive UND had damn near 38:00 of TOP.
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General Stats (from 2023)
Passing yards per game UND (198 for GRIZ vs 207 for UND)
Rushing yards per game GRIZ (177 for GRIZ vs 157 for UND)
Total offense GRIZ (376 for GRIZ vs 364 for UND)
Passing yards allowed per game GRIZ (206 for GRIZ vs 254 for UND)
Rushing yards allowed per game GRIZ (109 for GRIZ vs 155 for UND)
Total defense GRIZ (315 for GRIZ vs 409 for UND)
UND get the Griz on passing offense, but as you can see both are super close in stats offensively. Meanwhile Montana clears on defense and winds up getting 5 while UND gets 2
Offense points scored UND (30.3 for GRIZ vs 31.4 for UND)
Defense points allowed GRIZ (17.2 for GRIZ vs 26.3 for UND)
Turnover margin GRIZ (+9 for GRIZ / +4 for UND)
Field goal % GRIZ (67% for GRIZ vs 57% for UND)
Punt Returns GRIZ (14.5 yards for GRIZ vs 4.5 yards for UND)
Kick Returns UND (23 yards for GRIZ vs 28 yards for UND)
T.O.P. GRIZ (31:23 for GRIZ vs 30:39 for UND)
Red Zone defense (touchdowns) GRIZ (58% GRIZ / 72% UND)
Red Zone offense (touchdowns) UND (63% GRIZ / 82% UND)
3rd down offense UND – (41.5% for GRIZ / 44.7% for UND)
3rd down defense GRIZ – (29% allowed for GRIZ vs 49% allowed for UND)
UND picks up 4 more here, while Montana adds 7. Final tally comes to Montana 12 / UND 6.
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North Dakota Players to Watch:
#28 Gavin Ziebarth, RB: UND returns both of their dangerous RBs, Zeibarth is an honorable mention all MVFC, last season he had a team best 712 rushing and 9 rushing TDs. Gavin had 39 rushing yards last week.
#29 Isaiah Smith, RB: He’s got a pretty similar build to Zeitbarth, last year he had 603 rushing and 2 rushing TDs. He also had 181 receiving and 1 TD there. Smith had 50 rushing and 34 receiving yards last weeks.
#1 Bo Belquist, WR: Bo is one of the best WR’s Montana will see all season. The 6-1, 185 pound WR landed 1st team all MVFC this season. He finished, by far, the top WR last year with 772 yards and 6 TDS, the next leading WR had just 287 yards. We’ll probably see Bo returning punts too. Against ISU Bo was their leading WR with 6 catches and 43 yards
#6 Simon Romfo, QB: Romfo is UND’s new QB this season, he’s 5-11 / 190 pounds. As a reserve QB he actually played special teams all season last year, and saw some time at QB too. He’s a quick scrambler of a QB. Last week he had a gross gain of 65 rushing (but a net of 44 due to being sacked 3 times). He passed for 121 yards with no TDs and 1 INT, he also lost a fumble. He’ll be a big test to the Grizzly defense with his mobility.
#59 Wyatt Pedigo, LB: The tackling leader last year and 2nd team all MVFC, he’s a 6 foot, 230 pound linebacker. Last year he had 72 tackles, 7.5 TFLs, 4 sacks, 2 forced fumbles, and 4 fumble recoveries. 4 tackles last week for Wyatt.
#36 Malachi McNeal, LB: Also 6 foot, 230 pounds. He was 2nd best on the team in stops last year with 68. He had 7 TFLs, 3 sacks, and he blocked a kick even!
#34 Josh Navartil, LB: A taller / bigger backer at 6-2, 235, he was 2nd best in stops last week with 4 and he had 1 TFL. Last season he 33 stops, 4 TFLs, 1 sack, and 2 forced fumbles.
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Keys to a Grizzly victory
- Make your drives count. UND will look to slow the game down. Montana will probably have somewhere between 8 to 10 total possessions on offense if things go to plan for the Fighting Hawks. If the Grizzlies stall out on a majority of those they’d better hope their defense keeps them in the game. UND’s 3rd down defense last year was a little suspect, although it was better last year, but Montana will need to really make the most of the limited touches they’ll have.
- The Montana LBs and secondary has to clean up their errors from Missouri State. UND will be licking their chops watching game film of the Grizzly LBs and safeties leaving their assignments, missing tackles, and over pursuing. Their rushing attack will play right into that, and if Montana is just as sloppy, or worse, UND will destroy them on the ground.
- Test this new OL. Who else but their former coach would know best how to get after these guys, I’m sure coach Linehan is getting some pointers this week. The UND OL will probably be playing with a bit of a chip on their shoulder as well in an attempt to show up their former position coach. The Griz need to get this UND OL on it’s heels and get after and punish their QB. I think they’ll find a bit better footing this week than they did last week, but we’ll see. QB pressure and run lane disruption has to happen.
- “Do your 1 / 11” – A night game, probably a full house, a rowdy crowd. This will be a big test. Normally I’d say the focus on playing within your own game is something just the young guys need to focus on, but based on last week I think we need to reiterate to our veteran players tha as well.
- I think Montana needs 175+ and ideally 225+ rushing in this game.
- UND’s QB gave up 2 turnovers last week, lets force at least 2 more if we can. Montana must have a positive turnover margin.
- Bend, don’t break. UND is going to get yards. What’ll be an interesting test for them is their kicking game. They only attempted 7 field goals last year (made 4). However their RZ offense did find the endzone damn near 82% of the time. If the Grizzly defense can keep them out of the endzone and force more kicks that’ll be a big help.
- 1 or 2 “big” plays. Be it a pick 6, a long return, a deep shot pass. UND will be playing with a lot of emotion and big body blow of a play could take the wind out of the fans, and hopefully their team as well.
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I am downright nervous on this game. I want to do that “if this / then that” prediction bc I still don’t feel confident in what’s going to happen. I’m a little shaken from Saturday’s game and I’m worried that a similar defensive performance could show up.
However, this team has good veteran leadership at the right spots. It’s hopefully taking a lot of lessons to heart this week, and our leaders on defense especially can help lead the charge to clean up some of the mess we saw. I think this game will go fast, with lots of run plays, and so I think the team that can run the ball better wins. Montana, I believe, has the better OL – Griz take it, but it ain’t pretty! Final score, Griz will win 21-17.
Go Griz!
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