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Semore's defense vs Gregorak's defense, a 2-year look

BWahlberg

BWahlberg

Well-known member
DONOR
Granted we're not fully through the season, 1 more game for each (at least) but I thought it would be interesting to take a statistical look between the two. This is a general approach and doesn't take into account some things that I don't have time to edit out, such as special teams and defensive TDs - so some of the scoring stuff might be a little off... but I think this still gives the general picture. Both have had 2 years on the job and 2 years to build "their style".

This is combined stats from 2016 and 2017 YTD:

Scoring

Semore: 585 points / 27.86 points per game
Gregorak: 528 points / 25.14 points per game

Turnovers

Semore: 24 INTs / 20 fumbles / 44 total
Gregorak: 14 INTs / 14 fumbles / 28 total

Yardage Allowed:

Semore: 3193 rushing / 4878 passing / 8071 total / 384 yards per game
Gregorak: 3331 rushing / 4978 passing / 8309 total / 396 yards per game

TFLs / Sacks:

Semore: 182 TFLs / 63 sacks (8.67 TFLs and 3 sacks per game)
Gregorak: 108 TFLs / 31 sacks (5.14 TFLs and 1.5 sacks per game)

Defensive TDs:

Semore: 6 (1 fumble, 5 INT)
Gregorak: 2 (1 fumble, 1 INT)

3rd Down / 4th Down defense:

Semore: 104 for 318 = 33% 3rd down conversion & 13 for 33 = 39% on 4th down
Gregorak: 136 for 317 = 43% on 3rd down conversion & 24 for 44 = 55% on 4th down

Red Zone Defense

Semore: 55-83 scoring = 66% scores allowed / 47 TDs allowed = 57% TDs
Gregorak: 66-78 scoring = 85% scores allowed / 45 TDs allowed = 58% TDs

First Downs Allowed

Semore: 411 = 19.57 per game
Gregorak: 456 = 21.71 per game

Time on the field

Semore: 30:23 per game
Gregorak: 30:39 per game

--------------

Interesting to stack up side by side. Again there's some tough things to totally compare side by side considering each team hasn't played the exact same opponents and that some defensive stats (like scoring) might be skewed a little bit because it doesn't subtract scores given up by ST or by the offense (like pick-6 TDs for example).

Another thing to point out. Cats record in in the last two years is 7-13 to date, Griz is 13-8 yet head-to-head as we all know Gregorak's defense is 1-0 right now.
 
Oh if you're "scoring" by category (not including time on field in this):

Semore: 7 major categories / 13 total categories w/1 push
Gregorak: 1 major category / 2-ish total categories (allowed less overall TDs but higher %)
 
Wow interesting stuff. Kind of eye opening for me to be honest as it seems like Semore has had his struggles here. Thanks for putting together
 
HookedonGriz said:
Wow interesting stuff. Kind of eye opening for me to be honest as it seems like Semore has had his struggles here. Thanks for putting together
Click to expand...

He has but the usual suspects focus solely on that and refuse to give him any credit when the defense does play well.
 
HookedonGriz said:
Wow interesting stuff. Kind of eye opening for me to be honest as it seems like Semore has had his struggles here. Thanks for putting together
Click to expand...

I thought it would be interesting to see how the two stack up. Does it mean they'd have the same results if they traded places? Obviously, no. I just found it pretty fascinating to look at the two side by side with 21 games a piece to compare their body of work to date. This kind of sprung up as an idea when I was doing the MSU scouting report and started noticing some numbers for the Griz defensively that were as good or better than MSU's.
 
If you are going for the 'Bend, but don't break' philosophy i would be most concerned with the red zone defensive stat.
How did Gregoraks defenses fair in that category while at UM? Better than 85% allowed i'd think.
 
BWahlberg said:
HookedonGriz said:
Wow interesting stuff. Kind of eye opening for me to be honest as it seems like Semore has had his struggles here. Thanks for putting together
Click to expand...

I thought it would be interesting to see how the two stack up. Does it mean they'd have the same results if they traded places? Obviously, no. I just found it pretty fascinating to look at the two side by side with 21 games a piece to compare their body of work to date. This kind of sprung up as an idea when I was doing the MSU scouting report and started noticing some numbers for the Griz defensively that were as good or better than MSU's.
Click to expand...

Just curious, can you do 2017 only? I think that may show a slightly different story. Thanks!
 
DrainBramage said:
If you are going for the 'Bend, but don't break' philosophy i would be most concerned with the red zone defensive stat.
How did Gregoraks defenses fair in that category while at UM? Better than 85% allowed i'd think.
Click to expand...

Yeah I did that:

Semore: 55-83 scoring = 66% scores allowed / 47 TDs allowed = 57% TDs
Gregorak: 66-78 scoring = 85% scores allowed / 45 TDs allowed = 58% TDs
Click to expand...
 
I’d like to know how many plays of 20+ Yards (Insert your own number for chunk play) given up by both over the past two years. I think that gets to the heart of the perception argument, but also highlights distinct differences in scheme/philosophy.
 
ilovethecats said:
gotta assume strength of schedule plays a part in all of these stats too right?
Click to expand...

That's one of my qualifiers that it doesn't since I'd have no clue how to weight the two... Guess I could pull each teams Sagarin for the year... but that's not really just SoS though...

2017:
Griz - 135
Cats - 148

2016:
Griz - 134
Cats - 180

------------
 
I don't think you can just look at stats here. Ty had to change a "culture" at MSU with some really young players to boot. He's now put his stamp on this program like no assistant I've seen before with the exception of possibly McEndoo. We're on track to be really good on defense for years to come.
 
One.Cool.Customer said:
I’d like to know how many plays of 20+ Yards (Insert your own number for chunk play) given up by both over the past two years. I think that gets to the heart of the perception argument, but also highlights distinct differences in scheme/philosophy.
Click to expand...

Yeah that's not a tracked stat so no clue.
 
BWahlberg said:
Granted we're not fully through the season, 1 more game for each (at least) but I thought it would be interesting to take a statistical look between the two. This is a general approach and doesn't take into account some things that I don't have time to edit out, such as special teams and defensive TDs - so some of the scoring stuff might be a little off... but I think this still gives the general picture. Both have had 2 years on the job and 2 years to build "their style".

This is combined stats from 2016 and 2017 YTD:

Scoring

Semore: 585 points / 27.86 points per game
Gregorak: 528 points / 25.14 points per game

Turnovers

Semore: 24 INTs / 20 fumbles / 44 total
Gregorak: 14 INTs / 14 fumbles / 28 total

Yardage Allowed:

Semore: 3193 rushing / 4878 passing / 8071 total / 384 yards per game
Gregorak: 3331 rushing / 4978 passing / 8309 total / 396 yards per game

TFLs / Sacks:

Semore: 182 TFLs / 63 sacks (8.67 TFLs and 3 sacks per game)
Gregorak: 108 TFLs / 31 sacks (5.14 TFLs and 1.5 sacks per game)

Defensive TDs:

Semore: 6 (1 fumble, 5 INT)
Gregorak: 2 (1 fumble, 1 INT)

3rd Down / 4th Down defense:

Semore: 104 for 318 = 33% 3rd down conversion & 13 for 33 = 39% on 4th down
Gregorak: 136 for 317 = 43% on 3rd down conversion & 24 for 44 = 55% on 4th down

Red Zone Defense

Semore: 55-83 scoring = 66% scores allowed / 47 TDs allowed = 57% TDs
Gregorak: 66-78 scoring = 85% scores allowed / 45 TDs allowed = 58% TDs

First Downs Allowed

Semore: 411 = 19.57 per game
Gregorak: 456 = 21.71 per game

Time on the field

Semore: 30:23 per game
Gregorak: 30:39 per game

--------------

Interesting to stack up side by side. Again there's some tough things to totally compare side by side considering each team hasn't played the exact same opponents and that some defensive stats (like scoring) might be skewed a little bit because it doesn't subtract scores given up by ST or by the offense (like pick-6 TDs for example).

Another thing to point out. Cats record in in the last two years is 7-13 to date, Griz is 13-8 yet head-to-head as we all know Gregorak's defense is 1-0 right now.
Click to expand...


Gregorak worked wonders for what walked in to. Its amazing he took a defense that was ranked literally dead last in the nation, and within 2 years, with basically the same dudes, has brought to a point of at least being in the same conversation as UM's defense. Not everyone could have had that much success.
 
PR is currently frantically working in his lair coming up with bullshit rationalizations as to why these stats are incorrect.
 
Walkon79 said:
I don't think you can just look at stats here. Ty had to change a "culture" at MSU with some really young players to boot. He's now put his stamp on this program like no assistant I've seen before with the exception of possibly McEndoo. We're on track to be really good on defense for years to come.
Click to expand...

Andrew Schmidt kind of echo's that sentiment and it's a really fair point. Each coach had a very different group they were taking over.

[tweet]https://twitter.com/ASchmidtacular/status/930890268269690880[/tweet]
 
ilovethecats said:
gotta assume strength of schedule plays a part in all of these stats too right?
Click to expand...

Yep.

2016 MONTANA STATE FOOTBALL SCHEDULE

Sept. 1, at Idaho

Sept. 10, Bryant

Sept. 17, Western Oregon

Sept. 24, North Dakota
Oct. 1, at Sacramento State
Oct. 8, Northern Arizona
Oct. 15, at Weber State
Oct. 22, Eastern Washington
Oct. 29, Open

Nov. 5, at Southern Utah
Nov. 12, UC Davis
Nov. 19, at Montana

Go ahead and complain about this years ALL D1 schedule for the Griz :roll:
 
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