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Upset Guesses (Nov 18)

Where are the upsets?

  • Monmouth (9-1) at #22 Kenn. St (9-1)

    Votes: 17 43.6%
  • #11 Elon (8-2) vs #1 JMU (10-0)

    Votes: 3 7.7%
  • #21 Illinois St (6-4) vs #4 NDSU (9-1)

    Votes: 0 0.0%
  • #20 Furman (7-3) at #17 Samford (7-3)

    Votes: 19 48.7%
  • #15 So Dakota (7-3) vs #6 SDSU (8-2)

    Votes: 10 25.6%
  • NC Central (7-3) at #8 NC A&T (10-0)

    Votes: 5 12.8%
  • #23 NAU (7-3) at #14 SUU (8-2)

    Votes: 14 35.9%

  • Total voters
    39

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
This week we have lots of matchups between ranked teams, so picking was fairly easy. Trouble is, outside that, most of the ranked team games are against weak to terrible opponents. Examples: #5 Sam Houston gets Houston Baptist (1-9) at home. #3 Central Arkansas gets Abilene Christian (2-8) at home. And #18 EWU gets winless Portland State at home.

The best matchup for a ranked team against an unranked turned out to be Monmouth (9-1) at #22 Kennesaw State (9-1). That’s a really crucial game for both teams since it’s for the Big South championship, and auto-bid. Loser will probably not get an at-large bid … it might happen, but I do not see the six-team Big South as a two-bid conference. The NC Central vs A&T game turns out to be meaningless (other than for the teams and their fans) since the conference has already decided who will go to the Celebration Bowl.

In the end, I had to include the NAU at SUU game (also crucial), although I normally do not include Big Sky matchups.

Underdog on the left, two choices allowed, and you can change your votes.
 
I hope Kennesaw wins for SOS improvement if the Griz beat the cats. I also hope they lose so that the Griz have an extra spot to move up in polls (even though Monmouth is higher than the Griz). I picked NC Central and Furman.
 
Interesting that so many people think Furman can go on the road and upset Samford. But one of them will be 7-4, so that's a good thing.
 
I'll be interested to see if a 6-5 Illinois State makes the playoffs over, say a 7-4 EWU. The Big Sky is "weak" but they got an ass waxing by NAU and would've dropped 3 of 5 I believe to end it. That MVC love is crazy in the polls though.
 
AZDoc said:
I'll be interested to see if a 6-5 Illinois State makes the playoffs over, say a 7-4 EWU. The Big Sky is "weak" but they got an ass waxing by NAU and would've dropped 3 of 5 I believe to end it. That MVC love is crazy in the polls though.
Two points: As it stacks up now, assuming not a large number of crazy upsets, we're going to end up with a "surplus" of 7-4 (and 8-3) teams. If that pans out, the trade-off among the 3- and 4-loss programs is likely to kill a 6-5 record ... even if it is in the "high and mighty" MVFC.
 
IdaGriz01 said:
AZDoc said:
I'll be interested to see if a 6-5 Illinois State makes the playoffs over, say a 7-4 EWU. The Big Sky is "weak" but they got an ass waxing by NAU and would've dropped 3 of 5 I believe to end it. That MVC love is crazy in the polls though.
Two points: As it stacks up now, assuming not a large number of crazy upsets, we're going to end up with a "surplus" of 7-4 (and 8-3) teams. If that pans out, the trade-off among the 3- and 4-loss programs is likely to kill a 6-5 record ... even if it is in the "high and mighty" MVFC.

Oh I agree for sure. I'm just interested to see that scenario. Would they be first 4 out? I think they get clubbed anyway and it's a moot point, but a close loss to NDSU??? who knows.
 
Ida,

I know this isn't science but I don't think anyone on this board keeps track of FCS like you do. If you had to bet, do the Griz make the playoffs when they stomp state?
 
Ursa Major said:
Ida,

I know this isn't science but I don't think anyone on this board keeps track of FCS like you do. If you had to bet, do the Griz make the playoffs when they stomp state?
Absolutely!

The "worst case scenario" is actually for "form" to hold, in the sense that the favorites all, or mostly win. It only gets better for the Griz if we get some key upsets come Saturday. Here's how my numbers work out ... without going into too much detail.

Auto-bids (10) : If form holds, that means Weber is the Big Sky rep, since they have the tie-breaker over SUU.

At-large "locks" or highly probable (13) : One at (10-1), three at (9-2), six -- including the Griz -- at (8-3), one at (8-4), and one at (7-4, UNI).

Possible contenders (5) : Four at (7-4), one at (7-5).

Couple of points: I have kept Nicholls in the "highly probable" list because they are among the 8-3 teams, but I suspect they may not deserve to be there. Austin Peay sits at 8-4 ... and I include them because the NCAA seems to have a soft spot for them after all their years of ineptitude. So if you bump them, that opens two more spots.
 
(Bump.)

About to slide off page 1, so I moved it up. I guess not a lot of people are seeing upsets tomorrow.
 
AZDoc said:
I hope Kennesaw wins for SOS improvement if the Griz beat the cats. I also hope they lose so that the Griz have an extra spot to move up in polls (even though Monmouth is higher than the Griz). I picked NC Central and Furman.
I'm actually pulling for Kennesaw State to win the auto-bid, because they have a slightly better resume for gaining an at large bid if Monmouth wins.
 
grizband said:
AZDoc said:
I hope Kennesaw wins for SOS improvement if the Griz beat the cats. I also hope they lose so that the Griz have an extra spot to move up in polls (even though Monmouth is higher than the Griz). I picked NC Central and Furman.
I'm actually pulling for Kennesaw State to win the auto-bid, because they have a slightly better resume for gaining an at large bid if Monmouth wins.

I’ll pick up what you’re puttin down on that...
 
AZDoc said:
grizband said:
AZDoc said:
I hope Kennesaw wins for SOS improvement if the Griz beat the cats. I also hope they lose so that the Griz have an extra spot to move up in polls (even though Monmouth is higher than the Griz). I picked NC Central and Furman.
I'm actually pulling for Kennesaw State to win the auto-bid, because they have a slightly better resume for gaining an at large bid if Monmouth wins.
I’ll pick up what you’re puttin down on that...
I'm thinking, from the wording, that there's hope but no cash involved here. :lol: :lol:
 
"Bad dream" upset: South Dakota over SDSU ... putting both teams at 8-3 and in the mix with the Griz. Much better to have SDSU at 9-2 and USD at 7-4. A 7-4 USD might still get a bid, but at least that would put them on the bubble.
 
Before we get caught up in Griz-Cat, here are some interesting results ... some outside the listed upset possibilities.

Right now JMU leads Elon, 17-0, just coming out of halftime. Not much drama, either way, here.
However, it is of some interest that Maine is leading Stony Brook (8-2), 19-7, at halftime. Although Maine is at home, this probably won't holded up ... however, an 8-3 Stony Brook would drop them from a lock into the 8-3 semi-bubble.

Delaware (7-3) is currently losing at Villanova, 14-0. If this holds up (long way to go), it would definitely help the Griz by putting Delaware in the 7-4 bubble. Same for New Hampshire (7-3), which is behind (only a FG) at Albany.
 
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