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FCS STATS Poll Guesses (Oct 22)

IdaGriz01

Well-known member
Last week, I thought my guesses were going to be tough because seven ranked teams lost, and were scattered more or less from top to bottom. Yet I hit 22 of 25 on the nose or within one spot, and had only one “bad beat” -- putting NC Central up too much. Well, my chances of doing that again look pretty slim. Yesterday was a partial repeat, with seven ranked teams losing. Problem is, six of the losses were among the top-11 ranked teams. None of those losers is likely to drop out of the top-25 (with one possible exception.) But guessing how the pollsters will count the different losses makes it even more of a crap shoot as to how much each will drop.

Guess, Team, (Record), [Current Rank]
1 James Madison (7-0) [1]
2 North Dakota State (7-0) [2]
3 Jacksonville State (6-1) [3]
4 Central Arkansas (6-1) [6]
5 Sam Houston State (6-1) [7]
6 North Carolina A&T (8-0) [12]
7 South Dakota State (5-2) [13]
8 Elon (6-1) [14]
9 Samford (5-2) [16]
10 South Dakota (6-1) [4]
11 Villanova (4-3) [15]
12 Wofford (6-1) [5]
13 Grambling (6-1) [17]
14 Eastern Washington (5-3) [8]
15 New Hampshire (5-2) [18]
16 Western Illinois (5-2) [10]
17 Richmond (4-3) [11]
18 Western Carolina (6-2) [19]
19 Youngstown State (3-4) [9]
20 McNeese (6-1) [20]
21 Montana (5-2) [21]
22 Stony Brook (5-2) [22]
23 Weber State (5-2) [23]
24 Illinois State (5-2) [24]
25 Northern Arizona (5-2) NR

Southern Utah (5-2)
Delaware (5-2)
Northern Iowa (4-3)

First, the easy part. NC Central, sitting at #25, lost … so they’re out. Northern Arizona was just out last week, so they should easily move in.

My formulas dropped South Dakota by 6 spots. They lost to a ranked team, but only #24 and it was pretty decisive. They could drop a bit more. I dropped Wofford by seven, but it seems to me they’ve been skating on thin ice and could drop some more. All the other drops were fairly “standard,” except one.

The big puzzle has to be Youngstown State, now sitting at 3-4. I dropped them ten spots (which is huge and seldom happens). But does a team with a losing record even deserve to be ranked, even if it is in the “mighty” MVFC? Which brings up another kicker: It would not at all surprise me to see the pollsters give Illinois State a big bounce-back vote. Honestly, I can see them jumping to #21, thereby pushing the Griz down one.

To add to the mess, we now have two 5-2 teams “lurking” just out of the top-25, and both of them upset ranked teams. How will they figure in the mix? And, last but not least, there is 4-3 UNI, which also knocked off a ranked team.

Ouch. Should be very interesting tomorrow.
 
Youngstown St should be out of the top 25 or nearly. Don't care how good your FOUR "quality" losses are, you have a losing record after 7 games.
 
I'm not buying NC A&T, watched part of their game last night. They are going to run the table on the MEAC but its not a good year for their conference. Their O line is undersized, the qb got laid out a ton. One back with speed other than that very pedestrian. They will be one and one in the playoffs even if they host. I dont see how the voters can justify them in the top 10.
 
NorthEndZoneDan said:
I'm not buying NC A&T, watched part of their game last night. They are going to run the table on the MEAC but its not a good year for their conference. Their O line is undersized, the qb got laid out a ton. One back with speed other than that very pedestrian. They will be one and one in the playoffs even if they host. I dont see how the voters can justify them in the top 10.
The good news is, they are apt to run the table in the MEAC, which -- as you say -- is even weaker than usual. They will then play in the Celebration Bowl against the SWC champ ... and be ineligible for the FCS playoffs. They don't play Hampton this year (unbalanced schedule). Hampton is also undefeated in conference, but they have four games still to play (NC A&T only three) ... with tougher opponents. Beyond that, I have no clue what sort of tie-breaker(s) would kick in if both NC A&T and Hampton both ended up at 8-0.
 
Helllllo egriz! Delaware has sucked for 6 years so allow me to reintroduce myself. Just kidding. Posted here several times but more of a longtime lurker through thick and thin. This might be the first week Delaware is ranked in forever. To the poster above, not sure what they have to do to sneak onto your ballet. They have two top 25 wins at Stony Brook and over Richmond. Their two losses were against Virginia Tech and James Madison. Since YSU loves to tought their four quality losses like a badge of honor at least consider that Delaware lost to JMU by their smallest margin...needing a score with 3 minutes to put it away.

Good luck moving forward. FCS is good when you are up there.
 
grizfan95 said:
Youngstown St should be out of the top 25 or nearly. Don't care how good your FOUR "quality" losses are, you have a losing record after 7 games.

And they've lost 3 in a row.
 
AZGrizFan said:
grizfan95 said:
Youngstown St should be out of the top 25 or nearly. Don't care how good your FOUR "quality" losses are, you have a losing record after 7 games.
And they've lost 3 in a row.
Very good point. :thumb:

As I say above, it's going to be very interesting to see how the pollsters handle that bit of reality.
 
UD1Hens said:
Helllllo egriz! Delaware has sucked for 6 years so allow me to reintroduce myself. Just kidding. Posted here several times but more of a longtime lurker through thick and thin. This might be the first week Delaware is ranked in forever. To the poster above, not sure what they have to do to sneak onto your ballet. They have two top 25 wins at Stony Brook and over Richmond. Their two losses were against Virginia Tech and James Madison. Since YSU loves to tought their four quality losses like a badge of honor at least consider that Delaware lost to JMU by their smallest margin...needing a score with 3 minutes to put it away.

Good luck moving forward. FCS is good when you are up there.
Welcome back (I guess). Your guess is as good as mine (or anybody's for that matter :) ) as to what it would take for Delaware to climb back into the top-25. Had a few more lower tier teams lost, I'd would bet that your team would be there. But there are so many good 5-2 team, it's impossible to know which way the pollsters will go.

In a follow-post on my last poll guesses thread, I noted that there were four teams (including the Griz) clustered within about 400 votes in the #21-25 range, when over 400 votes separated #21 from #20. I speculated that almost any order within that cluster could be possible, including the Griz moving to #21 or even higher. It would not surprise me at all if the poll that comes out tomorrow has a bunch of teams in the #18 - #25 range that are separated by very small margins -- like maybe 40-50 votes. Certainly Delaware has a chance to be in that mix.
 
HookedonGriz said:
I would think SUU finds a way in. They have beat 3 top 25 teams now. They are getting screwed like NAU
Totally agree.

Still: See my post above to UD1Hens. Those comments apply equally to all those good 5-2 teams.
 
HookedonGriz said:
I would think SUU finds a way in. They have beat 3 top 25 teams now. They are getting screwed like NAU
And this should help, making your point to a national FCS audience.
http://www.fcs.football/cfb/story.asp?i=20171022113513619528204&ref=hea&tm=&src=FCS

Excerpts:
Haley said:
Southern Utah has been an outstanding team hidden in plain sight this season, but it shouldn't be overlooked anymore.
... Southern Utah earned a Top 25 win against Northern Iowa last month and another one versus Weber State on Oct. 14. The Thunderbirds (5-2, 3-1) made it two straight over an unbeaten Big Sky team by outscoring Eastern Washington 31-7 in the second half.
...
 
IdaGriz01 said:
UD1Hens said:
Helllllo egriz! Delaware has sucked for 6 years so allow me to reintroduce myself. Just kidding. Posted here several times but more of a longtime lurker through thick and thin. This might be the first week Delaware is ranked in forever. To the poster above, not sure what they have to do to sneak onto your ballet. They have two top 25 wins at Stony Brook and over Richmond. Their two losses were against Virginia Tech and James Madison. Since YSU loves to tought their four quality losses like a badge of honor at least consider that Delaware lost to JMU by their smallest margin...needing a score with 3 minutes to put it away.

Good luck moving forward. FCS is good when you are up there.
Welcome back (I guess). Your guess is as good as mine (or anybody's for that matter :) ) as to what it would take for Delaware to climb back into the top-25. Had a few more lower tier teams lost, I'd would bet that your team would be there. But there are so many good 5-2 team, it's impossible to know which way the pollsters will go.

In a follow-post on my last poll guesses thread, I noted that there were four teams (including the Griz) clustered within about 400 votes in the #21-25 range, when over 400 votes separated #21 from #20. I speculated that almost any order within that cluster could be possible, including the Griz moving to #21 or even higher. It would not surprise me at all if the poll that comes out tomorrow has a bunch of teams in the #18 - #25 range that are separated by very small margins -- like maybe 40-50 votes. Certainly Delaware has a chance to be in that mix.

They beat #11 (at the time) Richmond and gave JMU a decent game. They should absolutely be in the top 25 if not the top 20.
 
Delaware should definitely be in the top 20. Beating Stony Brook and Richmond, close call against JMU and with Villanova nearing the top 10, seems like a lock.
 
NorthEndZoneDan said:
Delaware should definitely be in the top 20. Beating Stony Brook and Richmond, close call against JMU and with Villanova nearing the top 10, seems like a lock.
I do not disagree.

Now for some (more) weasel words. As I said just above, there are a bunch of 5-2 teams that could be in the mix. And besides the STATS.com item about Southern Utah, I've come across several articles making the case for just about every one of them, as well as for UNI sitting at 4-3. Believe it or not, at least one site (I've cleared the URL from my history, unfortunately) is still making the case for "quality losses" Youngstown State (3-4).

So I'm fully expecting my guesses to be disastrously off the mark from, like, #12 on down. It would be nice, of course, if the voters took a little extra time to re-assess their whole list, based on who played who. But ... Fat chance! :?
 
While waiting for the STATS Poll, the Coaches Poll is out. Griz dropped out.

October 23, 2017

RANK SCHOOL POINTS RECORD PREVIOUS
1 James Madison (26) 650 7-0 1
2 North Dakota State 624 7-0 2
3 Jacksonville State 597 6-1 3
4 Central Arkansas 548 6-1 6
5 Sam Houston State 541 6-1 7
6 North Carolina A&T 463 8-0 11
7 South Dakota 444 6-1 4
T-8 Samford 435 5-2 14
T-8 South Dakota State 435 5-2 13
10 Wofford 421 6-1 5
11 Elon 362 6-1 15
12 Eastern Washington 278 5-3 8
13 Grambling State 269 6-1 17
14 Western Illinois 266 5-2 12
15 Villanova 257 4-3 16
16 New Hampshire 240 5-2 18
17 Richmond 226 4-3 10
18 McNeese 219 6-1 19
19 Youngstown State 167 3-4 9
20 Western Carolina 165 6-2 21
21 Illinois State 158 5-2 24
22 Weber State 121 5-2 23
23 Nicholls 118 5-2 20
24 Northern Arizona 112 5-2 NR
25 Northern Iowa 64 4-3 NR

Others receiving votes: Delaware (61), Montana (56), Stony Brook (39), Southern Utah (32), Monmouth (31), Kennesaw State (31), The Citadel (5), Dartmouth (4), Southeast Louisiana (4), Columbia (3), N.C. Central (2), Austin Peay (1), Furman (1).
 
oGriz said:
While waiting for the STATS Poll, the Coaches Poll is out. Griz dropped out.

October 23, 2017

RANK SCHOOL POINTS RECORD PREVIOUS
1 James Madison (26) 650 7-0 1
2 North Dakota State 624 7-0 2
3 Jacksonville State 597 6-1 3
4 Central Arkansas 548 6-1 6
5 Sam Houston State 541 6-1 7
6 North Carolina A&T 463 8-0 11
7 South Dakota 444 6-1 4
T-8 Samford 435 5-2 14
T-8 South Dakota State 435 5-2 13
10 Wofford 421 6-1 5
11 Elon 362 6-1 15
12 Eastern Washington 278 5-3 8
13 Grambling State 269 6-1 17
14 Western Illinois 266 5-2 12
15 Villanova 257 4-3 16
16 New Hampshire 240 5-2 18
17 Richmond 226 4-3 10
18 McNeese 219 6-1 19
19 Youngstown State 167 3-4 9
20 Western Carolina 165 6-2 21
21 Illinois State 158 5-2 24
22 Weber State 121 5-2 23
23 Nicholls 118 5-2 20
24 Northern Arizona 112 5-2 NR
25 Northern Iowa 64 4-3 NR

Others receiving votes: Delaware (61), Montana (56), Stony Brook (39), Southern Utah (32), Monmouth (31), Kennesaw State (31), The Citadel (5), Dartmouth (4), Southeast Louisiana (4), Columbia (3), N.C. Central (2), Austin Peay (1), Furman (1).
Not surprised ... and won't be surprised if it happens in the STATS poll. Too many good 5-2 teams around, so the bye week probably hurt the Griz in the voting. (I'm keeping an eye on that site and will get it up as fast as I can.)
 
Ouch! As my weasel words indicated, I expected to get creamed on this week’s poll … and I was not wrong.

Still, I did get a few things right, including 10 on the nose (okay, getting the top 5 was pretty easy). And I projected another 7 within ±2. But the pollsters also delivered a bunch of “bad beats.”

One consolation (of a sorts) was that they did not jump SDSU as much as I thought they might after they pounded Missouri State (I know, Mizzo State is really bad, but the score was 63-30). On the other hand South Dakota lost to a low-ranked team and only dropped two spots. Nice to be in the MVFC.

I did say that Illinois State might get a big bounce-back vote and they did … all the way back to #16, way more than I expected.

Another consolation (of sorts, again) was that I predicted the pollsters would not drop YSU out of the top-25. That’s one I wanted to get wrong, but they at least dropped them further than I did.
 
So southern Utah, with a better record and who beat UNI, not in...I think UNI is benefiting from Iowa State being ranked for the first time since 2005. Just my opinion. SUU punished because Oregon sucks.
 
Montana is not out...but down to 24. SUU is 25 in the stats poll
http://www.fcs.football/fcsfront.asp
 
AZDoc said:
So southern Utah, with a better record and who beat UNI, not in...I think UNI is benefiting from Iowa State being ranked for the first time since 2005. Just my opinion. SUU punished because Oregon sucks.
Well, that's a nice thought ... it implies that the pollsters make rational decisions based on things like strength of schedule, quality wins (or losses) and so on. Could be, but I've seen little evidence that most pollsters act in any such rational manner. ;) :lol: :lol:
 
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